Violence in Mexico is on the rise, particularly homicides, kidnappings and extortion by drug trafficking organizations and other organized crime groups. This trend raises the issue of the potential for spillover into the United States. A significant increase in spillover violence would likely lead to a redefinition of the bilateral relationship. While other places in the world have higher rates of violence than Mexico, greater scrutiny is placed on Mexico because of its proximity to the U.S. and the impact violence may have on Mexico’s emergence as an economic power.
The U.S. has promised to get tougher on China for almost a year now. On the campaign trail, presidential candidate Donald Trump promised that, under his administration, China would not be allowed to take advantage of the U.S. through its trade practices. The tough talk ended once Washington realized it needed China’s help resolving the North Korea crisis. And now that that appears to have hit a dead end, Trump may soon make good on the threats he issued during the presidential campaign.
On Dec. 28, Iran’s second-most populous city, Mashhad, situated in the northeast near the border with Turkmenistan, was the site of protests that would soon expand to dozens of towns, villages and urban centers throughout the country. On the first day, three cities held demonstrations. (Some reports say it was five.) On the second day, an additional nine cities saw protests. By the sixth day, they had spread to all corners of the country.
The debate over Brexit has been filled with apocalyptic predictions about its potential economic implications for the United Kingdom. But among the major flaws in these predictions is the fact that they focus on the U.K. as a whole. The United Kingdom, however, is made up of four distinct countries: England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. All four will be affected by Brexit in different ways, partly because they have different levels of exposure to EU trade.
Dec. 29, 2017 Yemen has always been different from the rest of the countries of the Arabian Peninsula. Even the Ancient Greeks thought of it as such, referring to the land that would eventually constitute Yemen as Eudaimon Arabia – “Fortunate Arabia” or “Happy Arabia” – because its rainfall and fertile land made for a stable population.
Cyril Ramaphosa’s election as president of the African National Congress party ushered in a period of hope that South Africa’s fate is about to change. Presidential elections will not occur until 2019, but it’s extremely likely that Ramaphosa, as the new leader of the ANC, will win. A major factor in the optimism about South Africa’s future under a Ramaphosa presidency is that he is independently wealthy. The thinking is that this would make him less subject to temptation and therefore less prone to the self-aggrandizement in which his predecessor partook. But for South Africa to reach its potential, it’s not as simple as changing the man at the top and, theoretically, eliminating government corruption.
Dec. 15, 2017 Turkey’s savings rate, which has been decreasing steadily since 1990, is among the lowest in the world. Meanwhile, Turkey’s external debt has been rising over the past five years, which could ultimately diminish the government’s control over its economy. Since most of Turkey’s external debt – about 70 percent – is held in the private sector, banks are struggling to attract sufficient deposits to meet the investment demands of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s economic stimulus. They therefore have had to turn to foreign borrowing to provide those funds.
Dec. 8, 2017 Over the past year, the U.S. Navy has been under scrutiny because of a series of collisions involving Navy warships from the Pacific Fleet. In May, the USS Lake Champlain guided-missile cruiser collided with a fishing boat in the Sea of Japan. A month later, the USS Fitzgerald destroyer collided with a cargo ship off the coast of Japan. Then in August, another destroyer, the USS John S. McCain, was hit by an oil tanker east of the Strait of Malacca. The latter two collisions resulted in the deaths of 17 American sailors. The Navy concluded that human error was the cause of both of those collisions.
Dec. 1, 2017 Russia boasts both a consolidated budget and a federal budget. The consolidated budget is a combination of the federal budget, which is controlled by Moscow, and Russia’s regional budgets. The federal budget, which is only one part of the consolidated budget, is developed, approved and spent by the central government.
Nov. 24, 2017 The Battle of Stalingrad had its origins in a pivotal German miscalculation at the start of the war. Operation Barbarossa, the code name for Germany’s invasion of the east, was designed to destroy the Soviet Union, securing Germany’s eastern flank and thereby guaranteeing German control of continental Europe. The invasion began on June 22, 1941.
Nov. 17, 2017 Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s revolutionary vision for his country’s future bears little resemblance to its present, yet polls suggest that a strong majority of Indian society may have bought into that vision. According to a Pew survey released this week, 88 percent of Indians hold a favorable view of Modi, and 83 percent are satisfied with the state of the economy. Most notably, 70 percent said they were satisfied with the direction their country is moving in. Just 29 percent felt this way in 2013 – the year before Modi took office – which means there has been a seismic shift in public sentiment in India.
Modi’s vision can be boiled down to three elements: strengthening the central government, strengthening the military and strengthening Indian society. The third element is in many ways the most daunting. India is a vast collection of religions, ethnicities and languages. Modi doesn’t view this diversity as an advantage. He is a Hindu nationalist, and he wants India to be a nation-state with a uniquely Hindu identity.
Nov. 10, 2017 Last month, the Chinese Communist Party held its 19th National Congress in which Chinese President Xi Jinping ushered in a new political era for the country. Xi’s first term was a period of profound transition that laid the groundwork for what was formalized in the congress in October. In the current state of play, Xi and his allies now have control over at least four fundamental sources of power in the Chinese system.
The first is the Politburo and its Standing Committee, where most Chinese policy is made. Three of the committee’s seven members are now loyal to Xi. (Xi occupies the seventh spot.) Notably, none of the new appointments are younger than 60. Since party secretaries serve five-year terms, and since 68 is the semi-formal retirement age of Chinese politicians, none would be able to serve two terms as Xi’s successor following the next congress in 2022. (Xi was anointed by his predecessor, Hu Jintao, five years out. Hu was picked a full decade before he took power.) In other words, Xi has laid the groundwork for his rule to extend beyond the next five years. As for the Politburo, more than half of its 25 members are considered Xi associates. Xi had already replaced 23 of the party’s 31 provincial party secretaries – some of whom are now Politburo members – even before the congress started. With so many officials beholden to Xi, his orders are that much more likely to be executed.
America in Transition &