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Sub-Saharan Africa

The Trouble With a Premature Vaccine

Hope is beginning to fade that the world will have a safe and effective coronavirus vaccine before the predicted “second wave” arrives that will...

Vaccine Nationalism Is an Exaggerated Threat

Nationalism is all the rage these days. Following decades of globalization, the pendulum has begun to swing back the other direction, triggering fears that...

Will the Coronavirus Forge a Brave New World?

Of all the major geopolitical players on the planet, Mother Nature may be the toughest adversary. Nature has neither imperatives nor constraints to guide...

Mother Nature as a Geopolitical Force

History is biased, and not just because the victors tend to write it. The study of history is largely the study of humankind –...

Four Coronavirus Lessons That We Will (or Won’t) Learn

How would we respond differently if another outbreak happened?

Medical, Economic, Social, Military: The State of Play

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A riot broke out in a poor, predominantly Muslim neighborhood north of Paris over the weekend. The immediate cause was a traffic offense and...

George Friedman’s Thoughts: Prisms of Thought

When I began the Thoughts column, I explained that I was using it as a space for thinking about a new book intended to...

Coronavirus and the Peril of Politicizing Medicine

Even medical institutions are political.

The Coming Decline of Global Trade

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(click to enlarge) The World Trade Organization revised its forecast for global trade this year to reflect the impact of the coronavirus pandemic — and...

Supply Chains and a Novel Path to Conflict

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Though “supply chain” became a household term only in the past generation, it has been around since humans have been engaging in commerce. One...

European colonization of Africa disrupted the development of nation-states and imposed artificial borders that set the stage for recurring conflict.

These modern nation-states are therefore very young and institutionally immature.

Sub-Sahara Africa typically serves as a secondary theater for tensions between stronger powers.

South Africa has the potential to be a regional power despite its economic difficulties. Two other candidates are Nigeria and Ethiopia.

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Required Reads: Sub-Saharan Africa

From our 2040 Forecast...

East Africa is rapidly developing basic manufacturing capabilities. Its countries are becoming an alternative — in an early stage — to China

Sub-Saharan Africa in our Memos

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Latest Posts

Changes in Consumer Spending and US Household Debt

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(click to enlarge) Over the past six months, spending habits among U.S. consumers have changed drastically. In the second quarter of this year, credit card...

Special Series on Warfare: The 1973 Arab-Israeli War

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Daily Memo: The Future of the US Navy

You sank my drone. The Pentagon is expected to release its long-awaited “Future Navy Force Study” in the coming weeks. It looks like the...