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Sub-Saharan Africa

Instability Drives Mauritania Toward the West

In late April, Malian troops supported by Russian mercenaries reportedly pursued separatist fighters into neighboring Mauritania. When the incident was over, according to local...

What Washington’s Departure From Niger Means

The U.S. responded to the Sahel’s string of military coups, especially in Niger, fairly pragmatically. Washington initially refused to call events in Niamey a...

Russian Influence in Congo

Last week, protests erupted in the Democratic Republic of Congo. What began in Kinshasa near U.S. and French embassies and U.N. compounds eventually spread...

Another ‘Coup’ in Africa, Another Russian Opportunity

Last weekend, Senegalese President Macky Sall announced an indefinite delay to elections that were slated to take place Feb. 25. Characterized by many as...

Ethiopia’s Timely Sea Access Deal With Somaliland

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s announcement on Jan. 1 of a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland marked a pivotal moment in his country’s long...

The World in 2024

Editor's note: Below are the compiled links to our entire 2024 annual forecast. Please follow the links for quick navigation, or download the PDF...

The US Re-Engages With Africa

After three decades of treating the African continent mostly as an afterthought, the U.S. is adjusting its strategy to curb the growing influence of...

Saudi Arabia Turns to Africa

Saudi Arabia is increasingly interested in building economic and diplomatic ties with Africa. Not long ago, the continent was nowhere near a priority in...

Kenya’s Attempt to Woo the West

On a recent tour through Africa, I got the chance to meet academics, diplomats and other industry experts on behalf of Charles University. I...

The Race to Dominate Seabed Mining

The world can’t get enough of critical minerals. From 2017 to 2022, green energy projects alone boosted demand for lithium by roughly 200 percent,...

The Demise of Francafrique

France’s colonial empire in West and Central Africa dissolved in the 1950s and 1960s, but Paris’ dominance remained. Through the unofficial policy of “Francafrique,”...

Why the Coup in Niger Is Different

For the past few years, one military after another in West Africa has overthrown its democratically elected leaders without garnering too much attention abroad....

The Future of the BRICS

On Aug. 22-24, members of the BRICS grouping will hold a summit in Johannesburg. They’re expected to discuss two key issues: enlargement and the...

South Africa’s Difficult Balancing Act

Though South Africa has remained outwardly neutral on Russia’s war in Ukraine, its recent actions have increasingly frustrated Western countries. Ahead of a BRICS...

Make Some Room for the Global South

The world is in the throes of an economic and political reorganization. The COVID-19 pandemic made virtually every country rethink the fundamental structure of...

Daily Memo: Russian Exports to Uzbekistan, Canadian Firms in the US

Energy in Central Asia. Russia will start exporting natural gas to Uzbekistan in October, the Uzbek Energy Ministry said. Deliveries totaling 9 million cubic...

Latest Posts

European colonization of Africa disrupted the development of nation-states and imposed artificial borders that set the stage for recurring conflict.

These modern nation-states are therefore very young and institutionally immature.

Sub-Sahara Africa typically serves as a secondary theater for tensions between stronger powers.

South Africa has the potential to be a regional power despite its economic difficulties. Two other candidates are Nigeria and Ethiopia.

Read Regional Assessment

Required Reads: Sub-Saharan Africa

From our Forecast...

European and U.S. efforts to draw down their respective military presences in Africa will be slowed due to the risk of losing economic opportunity and political influence to competitors like Russia, Turkey or China.

Sub-Saharan Africa in our Memos

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France Battles Rioters in New Caledonia

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(click to enlarge) Mass protests and riots erupted this week across New Caledonia, a French overseas territory in the South Pacific, as French lawmakers discussed...

Daily Memo: Putin-Xi Talks, Armenian Backlash

Putin in China. Chinese President Xi Jinping held informal talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing on Thursday. At the meeting, Xi said...

Mexico Considers a New Foreign Policy Path

On June 2, Mexican voters will go to the polls to select their next president. At a time when the dominant geopolitical players around...

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