Daily Memo: The US Surpasses China

There are more confirmed coronavirus cases in the U.S. than in any other country.

Daily Memo: Bad News for Wage Workers and Exporters

Unemployment claims have soared to historic levels.

The Coronavirus and the Rural-Urban Divide

The pandemic will deepen differences between the urban and the rural.

Quarantine and the Supply Chain

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The global medical community appears to have devised a strategy for mitigating the coronavirus that depends largely on quarantine, or limiting contact among the...

Daily Memo: The Limits of the Coronavirus, Global Security Issues, the...

The grimmest estimates can be helpful for policymakers to know what they need to prepare for.

Daily Memo: Turkey Provokes Russia, Israel Courts Arabs

Ankara is poking Moscow right after a falling out over the fight in northern Syria.

Daily Memo: Belarus Buys Oil, South Korea in the Middle East,...

Minsk has secured a shipment from Norway while Turkey tests waters outside Somalia.

The Kenya Attack and Soleimani’s Killing

The timing, target, execution and history of economic ties mean we should consider whether the two events are linked.

Geopolitical Futures’ Forecast for 2020

Introduction A year is an arbitrary moment. It is short, its length determined by a planet’s rotation around a sun. It is merely a moment in a longer and more complex tale in which figures who tower for a time pass by unnoticed, when the triumphs and tragedies that rivet us all fade away, all […]

Daily Memo: Fallout in Iran, the Future of the JCPOA

The Middle East is still reeling from the killing of Qassem Soleimani.

Forecast Tracker: 2019 Year-End Review

(click to enlarge) Scale: Hit, Partial Hit, Inconclusive, Partial Miss, Miss A Cycle Ends The U.S. and China will reach a deal on trade, but it won’t end the trade war. Hit China and the U.S. were seemingly inches from a deal for nearly the entire year, but they repeatedly struggled to push negotiations across […]

Daily Memo: Rising Global Debt, Lebanon’s New Prime Minister, Britain’s Foreign...

A World Bank study shows staggering levels of global debt, and the Lebanese president appoints a new prime minister.