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Sub-Saharan Africa

Egypt and Ethiopia’s Dispute Is Getting Worse

Egypt has been displeased with Ethiopia’s plan to dam the Blue Nile River since the project was announced more than a decade ago. Egypt’s...

Daily Memo: Georgian Elections, British Military Reforms

Results are in. Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili vowed not to recognize the results of parliamentary elections held over the weekend that saw the governing...

BRICS Runs Into a Wall

For leaders such as Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, the annual BRICS summit is an excellent opportunity to present a vision of a world...

Graphic Essay: Emerging Technologies

From the wheel to the internal combustion engine, new technologies have, for better or worse, fundamentally transformed our society. The emerging technologies listed have...

In Africa, China Strikes Back

A little over a year ago, China was consigned to spend less in pursuit of its interests in Africa. It cut back dramatically on...

Graphic Essay: The Fight Against Global Hunger

Last year, approximately 30 percent of the world’s population experienced moderate to severe food insecurity. This means some 2.3 billion people “compromised on the...

Sudan’s Forever War

As Sudan’s civil war enters its 15th month, peace seems as distant as ever. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces...

Graphic Essay: Global Chokepoints in Maritime Trade

Editor’s note: The following is the first of what we hope will be many Monthly Graphics, a visual-rich, subscriber-only essay that complements our long-form...

The Destabilization of Somalia

Somalia’s security situation has deteriorated considerably throughout 2024, as U.S. officials report that two years of gains against the al-Shabab extremist group have been...

Reflecting on South Africa’s Elections

The South African general elections held less than a month ago ended with a few unsurprising results. Cyril Ramaphosa was reelected as president, and...

Russian Strategy in the Sahel

A date has been set for the United States to fully demobilize from its military bases in Niger. On Sept. 15, American forces will...

Instability Drives Mauritania Toward the West

In late April, Malian troops supported by Russian mercenaries reportedly pursued separatist fighters into neighboring Mauritania. When the incident was over, according to local...

What Washington’s Departure From Niger Means

The U.S. responded to the Sahel’s string of military coups, especially in Niger, fairly pragmatically. Washington initially refused to call events in Niamey a...

Russian Influence in Congo

Last week, protests erupted in the Democratic Republic of Congo. What began in Kinshasa near U.S. and French embassies and U.N. compounds eventually spread...

Another ‘Coup’ in Africa, Another Russian Opportunity

Last weekend, Senegalese President Macky Sall announced an indefinite delay to elections that were slated to take place Feb. 25. Characterized by many as...

Ethiopia’s Timely Sea Access Deal With Somaliland

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s announcement on Jan. 1 of a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland marked a pivotal moment in his country’s long...

Latest Posts

European colonization of Africa disrupted the development of nation-states and imposed artificial borders that set the stage for recurring conflict.

These modern nation-states are therefore very young and institutionally immature.

Sub-Sahara Africa typically serves as a secondary theater for tensions between stronger powers.

South Africa has the potential to be a regional power despite its economic difficulties. Two other candidates are Nigeria and Ethiopia.

Read Regional Assessment

From our Forecast...

European and U.S. efforts to draw down their respective military presences in Africa will be slowed due to the risk of losing economic opportunity and political influence to competitors like Russia, Turkey or China.

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Latest Posts

What’s Next for Syria’s Refugees

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(click to enlarge) Syria’s civil war, which began in 2011, displaced more than 13 million people, including nearly 5 million who fled abroad. However, with...

Daily Memo: Russia, Turkey Reach Out to Syrian Rebels

Reaching out. Moscow is in direct contact with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the group that led the rebellion that overthrew the Assad regime in Syria,...

How Russia Defends Its Baltic Lifeline

European authorities are pretty sure someone is deliberately cutting their undersea cables and scrambling ships’ navigation systems in the Baltic Sea, and they are...

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