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Sub-Saharan Africa

In Africa, China Strikes Back

A little over a year ago, China was consigned to spend less in pursuit of its interests in Africa. It cut back dramatically on...

Graphic Essay: The Fight Against Global Hunger

Last year, approximately 30 percent of the world’s population experienced moderate to severe food insecurity. This means some 2.3 billion people “compromised on the...

Sudan’s Forever War

As Sudan’s civil war enters its 15th month, peace seems as distant as ever. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces...

Graphic Essay: Global Chokepoints in Maritime Trade

Editor’s note: The following is the first of what we hope will be many Monthly Graphics, a visual-rich, subscriber-only essay that complements our long-form...

The Destabilization of Somalia

Somalia’s security situation has deteriorated considerably throughout 2024, as U.S. officials report that two years of gains against the al-Shabab extremist group have been...

Reflecting on South Africa’s Elections

The South African general elections held less than a month ago ended with a few unsurprising results. Cyril Ramaphosa was reelected as president, and...

Russian Strategy in the Sahel

A date has been set for the United States to fully demobilize from its military bases in Niger. On Sept. 15, American forces will...

Instability Drives Mauritania Toward the West

In late April, Malian troops supported by Russian mercenaries reportedly pursued separatist fighters into neighboring Mauritania. When the incident was over, according to local...

What Washington’s Departure From Niger Means

The U.S. responded to the Sahel’s string of military coups, especially in Niger, fairly pragmatically. Washington initially refused to call events in Niamey a...

Russian Influence in Congo

Last week, protests erupted in the Democratic Republic of Congo. What began in Kinshasa near U.S. and French embassies and U.N. compounds eventually spread...

Another ‘Coup’ in Africa, Another Russian Opportunity

Last weekend, Senegalese President Macky Sall announced an indefinite delay to elections that were slated to take place Feb. 25. Characterized by many as...

Ethiopia’s Timely Sea Access Deal With Somaliland

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s announcement on Jan. 1 of a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland marked a pivotal moment in his country’s long...

The World in 2024

Editor's note: Below are the compiled links to our entire 2024 annual forecast. Please follow the links for quick navigation, or download the PDF...

The US Re-Engages With Africa

After three decades of treating the African continent mostly as an afterthought, the U.S. is adjusting its strategy to curb the growing influence of...

Saudi Arabia Turns to Africa

Saudi Arabia is increasingly interested in building economic and diplomatic ties with Africa. Not long ago, the continent was nowhere near a priority in...

Kenya’s Attempt to Woo the West

On a recent tour through Africa, I got the chance to meet academics, diplomats and other industry experts on behalf of Charles University. I...

Latest Posts

European colonization of Africa disrupted the development of nation-states and imposed artificial borders that set the stage for recurring conflict.

These modern nation-states are therefore very young and institutionally immature.

Sub-Sahara Africa typically serves as a secondary theater for tensions between stronger powers.

South Africa has the potential to be a regional power despite its economic difficulties. Two other candidates are Nigeria and Ethiopia.

Read Regional Assessment

From our Forecast...

European and U.S. efforts to draw down their respective military presences in Africa will be slowed due to the risk of losing economic opportunity and political influence to competitors like Russia, Turkey or China.

Sub-Saharan Africa in our Memos

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Latest Posts

Daily Memo: Pezeshkian Travels to Iraq, Hamas Negotiates in Qatar

Iran-Iraq relations. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian arrived in Iraq on Wednesday for a two-day visit, his first trip abroad since taking office in July....

The Corridor Dividing Russia and Iran

The Ukraine war has brought Russia and Iran closer, but the full scope of their evolving relationship is more complicated. Until last year, Tehran...

Daily Memo: Ukraine War Update, Russian Grain Forecast

Russian advances. Russia has reportedly launched a major counteroffensive in the southwestern region of Kursk. It apparently made significant headway on the western flank...

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