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Sub-Saharan Africa

The Road to 2040: A Summary of Our Forecast

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Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the next 25 years.

The Road to 2040

Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

Brief: A Potential Russian Naval Base Divides Sudan

Background: The Red Sea and Indian Ocean are important energy and trade routes, and thus competition for access to them among the great powers...

Brief: Russians Arrested in Chad

Background: Outside powers, particularly France and Russia, are jockeying for influence in Central and West Africa. Paris has a leg up in the region,...

Brief: Russia Edging Out France in Africa

Background: France is highly influential in its former colonies in West and Central Africa. It regularly participates in defense and security operations in these...

Brief: Why Russia Would Want to Mediate the GERD Talks

Background: Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt remain locked in fruitless negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Sudan and Egypt are downstream countries that fear...

Mauritania’s Extremism Problem

Despite Mauritania’s immense mineral and fishery resources, it’s ranked 159th out of 189 countries in the United Nations’ human development index. Its population of...

From Pandemic to Pan-shortages

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With some notable and grave exceptions, the COVID-19 crisis is winding down for much of the world. But as it does, another problem is...

Spain’s Grand Plans in Africa

It wasn’t so long ago, historically speaking, that Spain was a great power. It ruled much of the Americas, dominated the Atlantic Ocean and...

On the Nile Dam, Egypt Plays a Weak Hand

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has been billed as a transformational project for Ethiopia, where currently some 60 percent of the population does not...

Egypt’s Last Chance

What options does a nation have when its future depends on another country’s decisions about a resource the other country controls? That’s what Egypt...

The World in 2021

Introduction Our 2020 global forecast began as follows: Economic dysfunction will remain the main driver of the international system in 2020. Economic stress does not simply...

Forecast Tracker: 2020 Year-End Review

(click to enlarge) Scale: Hit, Partial Hit, Inconclusive, Partial Miss, Miss Global Economic dysfunction will be the main driver of the international system in 2020. Economic stress...

The Geopolitics of Vaccine Distribution

The American pharmaceutical firm Pfizer, in collaboration with German firm BioNTech, surprised the world when it announced that its coronavirus vaccine showed 90 percent...

Brief: The Implications of Ethiopian Unrest

Background: In Ethiopia, regional administrative divisions are drawn largely along ethnic lines, so political unrest, too, tends to be defined by these divisions, often...

Brief: Egypt and Sudan Enter Ethiopian Dam Talks

Background: Egypt and Sudan have been entrenched in a tense standoff over water, their shared border and the partition of Sudan for years. But...

Recent Articles

European colonization of Africa disrupted the development of nation-states and imposed artificial borders that set the stage for recurring conflict.

These modern nation-states are therefore very young and institutionally immature.

Sub-Sahara Africa typically serves as a secondary theater for tensions between stronger powers.

South Africa has the potential to be a regional power despite its economic difficulties. Two other candidates are Nigeria and Ethiopia.

Read Regional Assessment

Required Reads: Sub-Saharan Africa

From our 2021 Forecast...

The biggest challenge facing countries in this region will be getting access to the covid-19 vaccine and logistical challenges related to inoculation campaigns.

Sub-Saharan Africa in our Memos

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Latest Posts

The Volatile Global Food Supply

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(click to enlarge) The pandemic has aggravated an already alarming situation regarding the cost and accessibility of food worldwide, as the director general of the...

Daily Memo: The US and Philippines Reportedly Reach Key Deal

Agreement reached. The U.S. and the Philippines may have finally put to rest concerns over one of the biggest threats to their Mutual Defense...

COVID and Cars

We have moved into the true second phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Previous phases were merely passing bubbles. This one appears real. Until now,...

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