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Sub-Saharan Africa

Africa and Europe’s Shared Gray Zone

Russia’s operations against European states are testing how much disruption NATO will tolerate before imposing greater costs on Moscow. Drone incursions, sabotage, small-scale attacks...

America’s Commitment to Africa

U.S. lawmakers have proved unusually unified when it comes to African trade. On Sept. 2, President Donald Trump signed legislation extending the African Growth...

In Mozambique, the Future May Be Built on Rwandan Security

Five years after an insurgent attack brought Mozambican natural gas production to a halt, two of the country’s energy projects – and, as it...

Daily Memo: Syria Considers Joining Defense Pact

Entering the fold? Syria is considering joining the mutual defense pact signed on Aug. 7 by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, Syrian Foreign Minister...

The Geoeconomics of Water

Editor’s note: The following report was originally published in the July issue of GeoEconomic Lens, a subscription-based service that applies our geopolitical analysis toward...

Washington’s Quiet Return to the Sahel

The United States is edging back into the junta-led Sahelian states from which it was evicted just a couple of years ago, but this...

Expanding the Copperbelt’s Atlantic Export Routes

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(click to enlarge) U.S. strategy toward African critical minerals is changing rapidly. The United States’ Millennium Challenge Corporation has agreed to expand the use of...

In Mali, Turkey Sees an Opening

Mali is becoming a test case for the next phase of Turkish influence in Africa. A coordinated offensive in April by militant Islamist groups...

Daily Memo: Hungary-Ukraine Deal, Iraqi Disarmament Plans

One step closer. Hungary and Ukraine have reached a deal that could pave the path for the latter to begin accession negotiations with the...

Mali and the Collapse of Russia’s Security Guarantee

When Russian state-backed mercenaries started moving into Mali in late 2021 to help the military government defeat the country’s jihadists and separatists, they bore...

Global Economic Trends

(click to enlarge) Though global economic growth has stabilized since the 2020 pandemic meltdown, it remains below pre-pandemic averages and unevenly distributed across regions. After...

The Tigray Powder Keg in the Horn of Africa

Ethiopia and Eritrea are once again on the verge of conflict, just a few years after Ethiopia endured a devastating civil war in its...

2026 Forecast: Re-anchoring the World

Global In 2025, we noted that the world was becoming more unanchored compared to years past. Since World War II, the global order had had...

Competition in the Horn of Africa Heats Up

On Dec. 26, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that his country would officially recognize Somaliland, the breakaway region of Somalia, as a sovereign...

Israel Recognizes Somaliland’s Independence

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(click to enlarge) More than three decades after Somaliland claimed independence from Somalia, Israel became the first country to recognize its separation. It was a...

The Military Benefits of Quantum Technology

Modern militaries increasingly depend on the continuous functioning of complex systems rather than on decisive battlefield victories. Military advantages, then, are created less by...

Latest Posts

European colonization of Africa disrupted the development of nation-states and imposed artificial borders that set the stage for recurring conflict.

These modern nation-states are therefore very young and institutionally immature.

Sub-Sahara Africa typically serves as a secondary theater for tensions between stronger powers.

South Africa has the potential to be a regional power despite its economic difficulties. Two other candidates are Nigeria and Ethiopia.

Read Regional Assessment

Required Reads: Sub-Saharan Africa

From our Forecast...

European and U.S. efforts to draw down their respective military presences in Africa will be slowed due to the risk of losing economic opportunity and political influence to competitors like Russia, Turkey or China.

Sub-Saharan Africa in our Memos

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Latest Posts

Daily Memo: US Strategy for Diesel Prices, Russian Data Centers Under Attack

Diesel supplies. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defended an agreement reached between the U.S. and Russian presidents during a call on Friday to release...

Why the Houthis Are a Long-Term Threat to Saudi Security

The Houthi campaign against Saudi Arabia is the most serious sustained attack on the kingdom’s civilian targets in decades, and there’s no reason to...

George Answers Your Questions: Iran and Azerbaijan

Thinking About How the Iran War Ends Oct. 5, 2026 Question: It seems the returning Congress will be more inclined to end the war. If it...