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Sub-Saharan Africa

Brief: The Implications of Ethiopian Unrest

Background: In Ethiopia, regional administrative divisions are drawn largely along ethnic lines, so political unrest, too, tends to be defined by these divisions, often...

Brief: Egypt and Sudan Enter Ethiopian Dam Talks

Background: Egypt and Sudan have been entrenched in a tense standoff over water, their shared border and the partition of Sudan for years. But...

After Brexit, the UK Pivots to Africa

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(click to enlarge) To prepare for a post-Brexit world, the U.K. has been reorienting its trade and investment patterns. As such, it is increasingly looking...

The Trouble With a Premature Vaccine

Hope is beginning to fade that the world will have a safe and effective coronavirus vaccine before the predicted “second wave” arrives that will...

Vaccine Nationalism Is an Exaggerated Threat

Nationalism is all the rage these days. Following decades of globalization, the pendulum has begun to swing back the other direction, triggering fears that...

Will the Coronavirus Forge a Brave New World?

Of all the major geopolitical players on the planet, Mother Nature may be the toughest adversary. Nature has neither imperatives nor constraints to guide...

Mother Nature as a Geopolitical Force

History is biased, and not just because the victors tend to write it. The study of history is largely the study of humankind –...

Four Coronavirus Lessons That We Will (or Won’t) Learn

How would we respond differently if another outbreak happened?

Medical, Economic, Social, Military: The State of Play

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A riot broke out in a poor, predominantly Muslim neighborhood north of Paris over the weekend. The immediate cause was a traffic offense and...

George Friedman’s Thoughts: Prisms of Thought

When I began the Thoughts column, I explained that I was using it as a space for thinking about a new book intended to...

European colonization of Africa disrupted the development of nation-states and imposed artificial borders that set the stage for recurring conflict.

These modern nation-states are therefore very young and institutionally immature.

Sub-Sahara Africa typically serves as a secondary theater for tensions between stronger powers.

South Africa has the potential to be a regional power despite its economic difficulties. Two other candidates are Nigeria and Ethiopia.

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Required Reads: Sub-Saharan Africa

From our 2040 Forecast...

East Africa is rapidly developing basic manufacturing capabilities. Its countries are becoming an alternative — in an early stage — to China

Sub-Saharan Africa in our Memos

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Bahrain’s Shiite-Sunni Apartheid

Like many other countries of the Middle East, Bahrain has been repeatedly conquered by foreign invaders, including the Abbasids, Jarwinids, Omanis, Persians and Portuguese....

Daily Memo: Russia’s Missile Test, Concerns Over Central Asia

Conspicuous missile test. Russia’s newest naval corvette for the first time test-launched a cruise missile at a naval target in the Peter the Great...

Thanksgiving

Thanksgiving is a family holiday. For our family it is truly a family holiday, for my wife, Meredith, is a descendent of William Bradford,...

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