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Sub-Saharan Africa

Egypt’s Last Chance

What options does a nation have when its future depends on another country’s decisions about a resource the other country controls? That’s what Egypt...

The World in 2021

Introduction Our 2020 global forecast began as follows: Economic dysfunction will remain the main driver of the international system in 2020. Economic stress does not simply...

Forecast Tracker: 2020 Year-End Review

(click to enlarge) Scale: Hit, Partial Hit, Inconclusive, Partial Miss, Miss Global Economic dysfunction will be the main driver of the international system in 2020. Economic stress...

The Geopolitics of Vaccine Distribution

The American pharmaceutical firm Pfizer, in collaboration with German firm BioNTech, surprised the world when it announced that its coronavirus vaccine showed 90 percent...

Brief: The Implications of Ethiopian Unrest

Background: In Ethiopia, regional administrative divisions are drawn largely along ethnic lines, so political unrest, too, tends to be defined by these divisions, often...

Brief: Egypt and Sudan Enter Ethiopian Dam Talks

Background: Egypt and Sudan have been entrenched in a tense standoff over water, their shared border and the partition of Sudan for years. But...

After Brexit, the UK Pivots to Africa

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(click to enlarge) To prepare for a post-Brexit world, the U.K. has been reorienting its trade and investment patterns. As such, it is increasingly looking...

The Trouble With a Premature Vaccine

Hope is beginning to fade that the world will have a safe and effective coronavirus vaccine before the predicted “second wave” arrives that will...

Vaccine Nationalism Is an Exaggerated Threat

Nationalism is all the rage these days. Following decades of globalization, the pendulum has begun to swing back the other direction, triggering fears that...

Will the Coronavirus Forge a Brave New World?

Of all the major geopolitical players on the planet, Mother Nature may be the toughest adversary. Nature has neither imperatives nor constraints to guide...

European colonization of Africa disrupted the development of nation-states and imposed artificial borders that set the stage for recurring conflict.

These modern nation-states are therefore very young and institutionally immature.

Sub-Sahara Africa typically serves as a secondary theater for tensions between stronger powers.

South Africa has the potential to be a regional power despite its economic difficulties. Two other candidates are Nigeria and Ethiopia.

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Required Reads: Sub-Saharan Africa

From our 2040 Forecast...

East Africa is rapidly developing basic manufacturing capabilities. Its countries are becoming an alternative — in an early stage — to China

Sub-Saharan Africa in our Memos

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Latest Posts

Daily Memo: US Orders Supply Chain Review

U.S. supply chain review. The White House ordered a comprehensive review of U.S. supply chain vulnerabilities related to overdependence on China. The process, which...

Mexico’s Energy Conundrum

Last week, ice storms disrupted natural gas supplies to Mexico and so revived an existential question over how energy independent the country can and...

Brief: EU Recovery Worries

Background: Last year, the European Union approved the 672.5 billion-euro ($815 billion) Recovery and Resilience Facility to help member states recover from the impact...

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