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Sub-Saharan Africa

The Scalable World War Ahead

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan begins a new era of confrontation between the U.S. and China and marks a new stage...

The Global Economy Rebounds, Stumbles Again

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(click to enlarge) Economic data for the past two years – that is, the majority of the COVID-19 pandemic – has finally been processed and...

Can Africa Replace Russian Energy in Europe?

Unsurprisingly, the economic war against Russia has created tensions in European energy markets, which are scrambling to find alternate sources from what is still...

New Political Strategies in a New Economic Order

At several debates I’ve attended since the beginning of the year – and in several responses I’ve received from readers – one question is...

The World in 2022

“The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you can see,” Winston Churchill once quipped. Predicating expectations of the future on an understanding...

Globalization After the Pandemic

We enter 2022 with the same hope that we had as we entered 2021: that the pandemic will end soon. This time, we will...

2021 Year-End Review

(click to enlarge) Scale: Hit, Partial Hit, Inconclusive, Partial Miss, Miss Global The defining feature of 2021 will be insularity. Countries will simply be too consumed with...

The World Ocean Versus the Continent

For centuries, the power that controls the seas – the “World Ocean” – has successfully stymied continental rivals and dictated the rules of world trade. The...

Fertilizers and Food Insecurity

Next week is Thanksgiving, a U.S. holiday that celebrates, and is celebrated with, food. This year, however, Americans are reckoning with rising food prices....

The Trouble With Establishing Democracy in Sudan

Since gaining independence from the British in 1956, Sudan has experienced only intermittent periods of democratic rule. Although the British encouraged the rise of...

Russia’s Biggest Advantage in Africa

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There’s been much talk of late about Russia’s growing presence in Africa, and indeed, it has many military and economic operations throughout the continent....

Explanations for the Labor Shortage

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The current breakdown of the global supply chain threatens to change the future of the world. If this worsens, the fabric of the global...

Turkey’s Ambitious Plans for Africa

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For years, Turkey has pursued an ambitious agenda, expanding its influence in countries and regions formerly under Ottoman control. It may not be able...

On Geoeconomics

Last week, I spoke and moderated at several conferences in person – a rare thing since the pandemic began – whose topics ranged from...

Brief: Ethnic Violence Threatens to Spread to Djibouti

Background: Djibouti’s location on the Horn of Africa enables it to control access to the Red Sea and Indian Ocean, one of the busiest...

The Road to 2040: A Summary of Our Forecast

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Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the next 25 years.

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Eurasia in Crisis

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European colonization of Africa disrupted the development of nation-states and imposed artificial borders that set the stage for recurring conflict.

These modern nation-states are therefore very young and institutionally immature.

Sub-Sahara Africa typically serves as a secondary theater for tensions between stronger powers.

South Africa has the potential to be a regional power despite its economic difficulties. Two other candidates are Nigeria and Ethiopia.

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Required Reads: Sub-Saharan Africa

From our 2022 Forecast...

European and U.S. efforts to draw down their respective military presences in Africa will be slowed due to the risk of losing economic opportunity and political influence to competitors like Russia, Turkey or China.

Sub-Saharan Africa in our Memos

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Daily Memo: Signs of Economic Growth in Russia

Adapting. Russia’s purchasing managers’ index increased at its fastest pace in nearly six years, from 50.7 in October to 53.2 in November. (A rating...

Why a Cap on Russian Oil Prices Won’t Work

EU leaders are scrambling to reach a deal on a price cap for Russian oil imports before a full ban on purchases of Russian...

Daily Memo: Protests and Exercises

More protests in China. Another protest took place in the Chinese manufacturing hub of Guangzhou on Tuesday night. Police eventually dispersed the demonstrators. Today,...

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