HomeRegional DirectorySub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

Washington’s Quiet Return to the Sahel

The United States is edging back into the junta-led Sahelian states from which it was evicted just a couple of years ago, but this...

Expanding the Copperbelt’s Atlantic Export Routes

FREE
(click to enlarge) U.S. strategy toward African critical minerals is changing rapidly. The United States’ Millennium Challenge Corporation has agreed to expand the use of...

In Mali, Turkey Sees an Opening

Mali is becoming a test case for the next phase of Turkish influence in Africa. A coordinated offensive in April by militant Islamist groups...

Daily Memo: Hungary-Ukraine Deal, Iraqi Disarmament Plans

One step closer. Hungary and Ukraine have reached a deal that could pave the path for the latter to begin accession negotiations with the...

Mali and the Collapse of Russia’s Security Guarantee

When Russian state-backed mercenaries started moving into Mali in late 2021 to help the military government defeat the country’s jihadists and separatists, they bore...

Global Economic Trends

(click to enlarge) Though global economic growth has stabilized since the 2020 pandemic meltdown, it remains below pre-pandemic averages and unevenly distributed across regions. After...

The Tigray Powder Keg in the Horn of Africa

Ethiopia and Eritrea are once again on the verge of conflict, just a few years after Ethiopia endured a devastating civil war in its...

2026 Forecast: Re-anchoring the World

Global In 2025, we noted that the world was becoming more unanchored compared to years past. Since World War II, the global order had had...

Competition in the Horn of Africa Heats Up

On Dec. 26, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that his country would officially recognize Somaliland, the breakaway region of Somalia, as a sovereign...

Israel Recognizes Somaliland’s Independence

FREE
(click to enlarge) More than three decades after Somaliland claimed independence from Somalia, Israel became the first country to recognize its separation. It was a...

The Military Benefits of Quantum Technology

Modern militaries increasingly depend on the continuous functioning of complex systems rather than on decisive battlefield victories. Military advantages, then, are created less by...

A New Jihadist Hub in Africa

Nigeria and Mali are at the center of what is fast becoming the world’s most active theater of jihadism. Militant groups are exploiting the...

On the Global Gen Z Protests

Over the past few months, a wave of protests led by members of Generation Z has swept over the world. They have largely taken...

Guinea Shakes Up Global Iron Ore Market

FREE
(click to enlarge) After three decades, Guinea has officially inaugurated the Simandou mine, with the first shipment of iron ore expected to depart for China...

The UAE’s Quiet Militarization of the Red Sea

The Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary group that comprises one side of the civil war in Sudan, recently took el-Fasher, the last important stronghold...

Why the Conflict in the Congo Can’t Stop

This week, the United States hosted a third round of talks to broker peace between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and M23, a...

Latest Posts

European colonization of Africa disrupted the development of nation-states and imposed artificial borders that set the stage for recurring conflict.

These modern nation-states are therefore very young and institutionally immature.

Sub-Sahara Africa typically serves as a secondary theater for tensions between stronger powers.

South Africa has the potential to be a regional power despite its economic difficulties. Two other candidates are Nigeria and Ethiopia.

Read Regional Assessment

From our Forecast...

European and U.S. efforts to draw down their respective military presences in Africa will be slowed due to the risk of losing economic opportunity and political influence to competitors like Russia, Turkey or China.

Sub-Saharan Africa in our Memos

Continue to the category

More from Sub-Saharan Africa

Continue to the category

Latest Posts

A Major Move by India

FREE
Years ago, we at GPF predicted that the United States would try to reduce its involvement in the Eastern Hemisphere. Aside from his actions...

George Answers Your Questions: A Strange Article from Tass and The Conception and Birth of the United States

A Strange Article from Tass July 6, 2026 Question: The Russians have been fighting with one hand tied behind their backs for years, because they haven't...

Turkey’s Ascent as a Defense Industrial Player

FREE
(click to enlarge) Turkey’s defense industry is expanding rapidly. The country became the world’s 11th-largest supplier of arms exports recently, while its share of global...