Geopolitical Futures’ Forecast for 2020

Introduction A year is an arbitrary moment. It is short, its length determined by a planet’s rotation around a sun. It is merely a moment in a longer and more complex tale in which figures who tower for a time pass by unnoticed, when the triumphs and tragedies that rivet us all fade away, all […]

Daily Memo: Fallout in Iran, the Future of the JCPOA

The Middle East is still reeling from the killing of Qassem Soleimani.

Forecast Tracker: 2019 Year-End Review

(click to enlarge) Scale: Hit, Partial Hit, Inconclusive, Partial Miss, Miss A Cycle Ends The U.S. and China will reach a deal on trade, but it won’t end the trade war. Hit China and the U.S. were seemingly inches from a deal for nearly the entire year, but they repeatedly struggled to push negotiations across […]

Daily Memo: Rising Global Debt, Lebanon’s New Prime Minister, Britain’s Foreign...

A World Bank study shows staggering levels of global debt, and the Lebanese president appoints a new prime minister.

Forecast Tracker: 2019 November Update

A Cycle Ends The U.S. and China will reach a deal on trade, but it won’t end the trade war. On track Washington’s willingness to settle for a less ambitious trade deal was a major turning point in the trade war. All that’s left now for the two sides is to work out the mechanics […]

Can Ethiopia Defy Its Own History?

When the country tries to function as a federation, it tends to suppress its people.

Forecast Tracker: 2019 Second Quarter Update

The trade war roller coaster, the economy's other shoe, the offensive against Iran.