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Sub-Saharan Africa

China’s New Approach in Africa

China is moving away from its landmark Belt and Road Initiative in favor of smaller direct investments in strategic projects like renewable power and...

Why Sudan Matters

Since declaring its independence in 1956, Sudan has been beset by conflict. The country lies in an unstable region on the edge of the...

Kenyan Protests Reshape East Africa

Kenya has generally been a beacon of stability in an otherwise restive region. Since its independence, it has had relatively strong institutional integrity, with...

The Hidden Conflict in Congo

The geopolitical competition over the Democratic Republic of Congo is heating up. One of the poorest countries on earth, Congo has problems that are...

The Ukraine War, One Year In

It’s been a year since Russia invaded Ukraine, and what many believed would be a short-lived conflict rages on. That’s not to say it’s...

In South Africa, Russia Prospects for Opportunity

A country as distant and seemingly disinterested as South Africa may not seem like a typical ally for stronger powers, but there’s evidence that...

Forecast for 2023

Our 2023 Annual Forecast, like those before it, is an attempt to provide a sense of the direction of the world. We do this...

The Scalable World War Ahead

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan begins a new era of confrontation between the U.S. and China and marks a new stage...

The Global Economy Rebounds, Stumbles Again

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(click to enlarge) Economic data for the past two years – that is, the majority of the COVID-19 pandemic – has finally been processed and...

Can Africa Replace Russian Energy in Europe?

Unsurprisingly, the economic war against Russia has created tensions in European energy markets, which are scrambling to find alternate sources from what is still...

New Political Strategies in a New Economic Order

At several debates I’ve attended since the beginning of the year – and in several responses I’ve received from readers – one question is...

The World in 2022

“The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you can see,” Winston Churchill once quipped. Predicating expectations of the future on an understanding...

Globalization After the Pandemic

We enter 2022 with the same hope that we had as we entered 2021: that the pandemic will end soon. This time, we will...

2021 Year-End Review

(click to enlarge) Scale: Hit, Partial Hit, Inconclusive, Partial Miss, Miss Global The defining feature of 2021 will be insularity. Countries will simply be too consumed with...

The World Ocean Versus the Continent

For centuries, the power that controls the seas – the “World Ocean” – has successfully stymied continental rivals and dictated the rules of world trade. The...

Fertilizers and Food Insecurity

Next week is Thanksgiving, a U.S. holiday that celebrates, and is celebrated with, food. This year, however, Americans are reckoning with rising food prices....

Latest Posts

European colonization of Africa disrupted the development of nation-states and imposed artificial borders that set the stage for recurring conflict.

These modern nation-states are therefore very young and institutionally immature.

Sub-Sahara Africa typically serves as a secondary theater for tensions between stronger powers.

South Africa has the potential to be a regional power despite its economic difficulties. Two other candidates are Nigeria and Ethiopia.

Read Regional Assessment

Required Reads: Sub-Saharan Africa

From our Forecast...

European and U.S. efforts to draw down their respective military presences in Africa will be slowed due to the risk of losing economic opportunity and political influence to competitors like Russia, Turkey or China.

Sub-Saharan Africa in our Memos

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Latest Posts

Food Insecurity: Outlook for 2023

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(click to enlarge) Over the course of 2022, global food prices gradually began to ease. However, this wasn’t necessarily reflected in prices at local markets...

Daily Memo: US-Israel Talks, EU-Central Asia Summit

The U.S. and Israel. Israeli National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer met with U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan...

How the Ukraine War Gave Venezuelan Oil an Opening

For years, the Venezuelan economy has been largely disconnected from Western markets. The war in Ukraine, however, initiated a sort of restructuring of the...

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