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Daily Memo: Infrastructure Pacts and Defense Cooperation

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Trans-Himalayan network. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his Nepali counterpart, Narayan Khadka, agreed...
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Weekly Graphic

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Weekly Graphic

Population Growth Trends

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Geopolitical Futures -
(click to enlarge) Over the long term, demographics affect geopolitical trends and state behavior. Population size has implications for public pension systems, economic growth, food...
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Weekly Graphic

Japan’s Gradual Military Reawakening

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(click to enlarge) After its defeat in World War II, Japan was deprived of any military capability. Pursuant to Article 9 of its new constitution,...
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Drought in North America

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(click to enlarge) Dating back to 1848, water sharing is one of the longest-standing areas of bilateral cooperation between Mexico and the United States. Agreements...
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Europe’s Recovery on Hold

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(click to enlarge) The EU economy was on a path to recovery at the start of the year. It was working to overcome a recession...
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A New Phase in the Global Economic War

AnalysisAntonia Colibasanu -
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, it didn’t just start a ground war in...
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The Fallout Over Taiwan

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AnalysisGeorge Friedman -
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit to Taiwan predictably sparked outrage in China,...
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Learn How the Commodities Crisis Affects You

America's Broken Supply Chains
Russia and the First Economic World War
Indonesian Exports and Palm Oil Prices
Arab Food Insecurity and Political Failure
China's Role in Sri Lanka's Economic Crisis
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Featured Analysis

The Future of NATO’s Strategic Concept

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Antonia Colibasanu -
2022 will bring two major diplomatic events for the trans-Atlantic community. First, in March, the European Union will adopt its Strategic Compass, a document...
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Russia’s New Maritime Strategy

AnalysisEkaterina Zolotova -
On July 31, just before the start of a naval parade, President Vladimir Putin...
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Tunisia’s President Tightens His Grip on Power

AnalysisHilal Khashan -
In July 2021, Tunisian President Kais Saied staged a presidential coup, fired Prime Minister...
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Russia’s Protracted War in Ukraine

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AnalysisRidvan Bari Urcosta -
The war in Ukraine is raging with no end in sight. Neither Russia nor...
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Destabilizing Major Powers

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AnalysisGeorge Friedman -
The Geopolitical Futures model argues that the northern tier of entities are the center...
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The Fallout Over Taiwan

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George Friedman -
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit to Taiwan predictably sparked outrage in China, which responded by flexing its muscles through some not-at-all subtle...
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The Storm Before the Calm

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Forecasts

The World in 2022

This year, pandemic-induced shortages and supply disruptions frame all other trends in the international system.

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The Road to 2040

We look into the future and forecast what the world…

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The World in 2021

Economic and political fallout from COVID-19 responses will remain the primary driver of events in 2021.

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Media / Interviews

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RealClearDefense: The Fallout Over Taiwan

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Press Geopolitical Futures -
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit to Taiwan predictably sparked outrage in China, which responded by flexing its muscles through some not-at-all subtle...
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RealClearDefense: In China, New Purges, New Targets

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Press Geopolitical Futures -
China’s restructuring of real estate giant Evergrande Group is not exactly going as planned. In mid-May, the company was on track to deliver a...
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RealClearDefense: Russian Military Doctrine

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Press Geopolitical Futures -
The city of Lysychansk has fallen to Russia. Russia has the choice of accepting its recent victory as the culmination of the war or...
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America, War and the Atlantic

EurasiaGeorge Friedman -
On Aug. 1, 1914, Germany declared war on Russia. Two days later, Germany declared war on France. The following day, Britain declared war on...
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Daily Memo: Surrounded by Military Drills

AnalysisGeopolitical Futures -
Post-visit exercise. China is conducting large live-fire military exercises in six locations around Taiwan in the wake of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit...
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Tunisia’s President Tightens His Grip on Power

AnalysisHilal Khashan -
In July 2021, Tunisian President Kais Saied staged a presidential coup, fired Prime Minister Hisham Mchichi, suspended the parliament and ruled by decree, arrogating...
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Daily Memo: Fallout in the Strait, Missiles in the Middle East

AnalysisGeopolitical Futures -
Strait talk. During her visit to Taiwan, U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi hailed the self-ruled island as "one of the freest societies...
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Russia’s Protracted War in Ukraine

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AnalysisRidvan Bari Urcosta -
The war in Ukraine is raging with no end in sight. Neither Russia nor Ukraine is ready to sit at the negotiation table. Both...
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Daily Memo: Pelosi’s Trip to Taiwan, Grain Corridor Open

AnalysisGeopolitical Futures -
Taiwan visit. U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is expected to arrive in Taiwan on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning to meet with Taiwan’s president,...
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