Daily Memo
What's Geopolitically Important Today

Daily Memo: Iran Denies Negotiation Rumors

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Denials. Iranian officials and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps denied reports of negotiations with...
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Weekly Graphic

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Americas

Cuba’s Energy Crisis

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Geopolitical Futures -
(click to enlarge) Cuba's energy crisis has been going on for years but is now taking on a geopolitical dimension. The country's electricity infrastructure has...
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Europe

EU Economies Can’t Catch a Break

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Geopolitical Futures -
(click to enlarge) The European economy failed to sustain its modest momentum in the fourth quarter of 2025, with growth slowing to 0.2 percent compared...
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Middle East and North Africa

Disrupted Oil Operations in the Persian Gulf

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Geopolitical Futures -
(click to enlarge) Though oil prices have surged since the start of fighting in the Middle East, investors are still hopeful that the war will...
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Middle East and North Africa

The Chokepoint at the Center of the US-Iran Standoff

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Geopolitical Futures -
(click to enlarge) Brent crude prices have risen modestly in recent weeks, climbing into the low $70s after several months of relative stability. The move...
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Latest Analysis

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Lebanon on the Brink of Civil War

Analysis Hilal Khashan -
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem recently asserted that the Iranian-backed Shiite group will defend Lebanon until the areas of the country that were captured by...
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Beyond Iran: China, Russia and Europe

AnalysisGeorge Friedman -
The war in Iran continues, its outcome uncertain and length unknown. And though the...
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George Answers Your Questions: Geopolitics, War and Iran

AnalysisGeorge Friedman -
Geopolitics, War and Iran March 17, 2026 Question: Why are you saying that there was a...
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The World in 2026

China has effectively replaced Russia as a global power.

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Conditions for US-Russia Rapprochement Fall Into Place

AnalysisEkaterina Zolotova -
Seven months after the historic Alaska summit between Russia and the United States, the...
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Assessing Iran’s Capacity Amid Decapitation and Degradation

AnalysisKamran Bokhari -
In the assessment of U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard on March 18,...
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Why Asia Hopes for a Short Mideast War

AnalysisVictoria Herczegh -
The war in Iran has already had far-reaching consequences in the Asia-Pacific. The region...
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Geopolitics, War and Iran

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AnalysisGeorge Friedman -
In 1940, the United States placed Japan in a difficult position. Japan was a...
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From the Desk of George Frieman
George Friedman, Geopolitical Futures

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Beyond Iran: China, Russia and Europe

George Friedman -
The war in Iran continues, its outcome uncertain and length unknown. And though the conflict has already affected the global system significantly, things are...
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Forecasts

The World in 2025

The international order is about to get less orderly.

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The Road to 2040

We look into the future and forecast what the world…

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The World in 2024

The coming year will revolve around what happens in the U.S., China and Russia – and between Israel and Hamas.

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Read our annual or long term forecasts.

Forecasts

Press Room

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US Bargaining With China and Russia

Analysis Kamran Bokhari -
With the arrival of the second Trump administration, great power competition is at an inflection point. Both Russia and China face internal crises that...
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American Naval Policy and China

Analysis George Friedman -
Editor’s note: If it feels as though the world is changing, that’s because it is. Global economic reconfiguration, demographic decline and geopolitical realignment have...
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Europe: The Agony and Ecstasy of US Relations

Analysis Antonia Colibasanu -
One of the most pressing geopolitical issues Europe faces is its evolving relationship with the United States. This relationship will be critical as Europe...
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Daily Memo: On US Drones and Strikes on Iran

AmericasGeopolitical Futures -
Mass production. The Pentagon wants to mass-produce a low-cost one-way attack drone that the U.S. has been using in the Iran conflict, the Wall...
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Why Asia Hopes for a Short Mideast War

AnalysisVictoria Herczegh -
The war in Iran has already had far-reaching consequences in the Asia-Pacific. The region is highly dependent on Middle Eastern oil, liquefied natural gas...
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Daily Memo: Trump on Cuba, Pakistani Airstrikes

AmericasGeopolitical Futures -
Plans for Cuba. U.S. President Donald Trump said he thinks he will have “the honor of taking Cuba,” amid the United States’ continued energy...
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Geopolitics, War and Iran

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AnalysisGeorge Friedman -
In 1940, the United States placed Japan in a difficult position. Japan was a country with very limited resources. It had to import oil,...
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The War is Evolving: George Friedman on Miscalculations in Iran

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VideoGeopolitical Futures -
The US-Israeli war with Iran has no end in sight as strikes on both sides continue. With Iran’s capitulation failing to materialize and the IRGC’s true strength revealed, the conflict is in a state of evolution. On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss shifting US war aims, the rising price of oil as the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint, and just how long this all might last.
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The Evolution of the Iran War

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PodcastGeopolitical Futures -
The US-Israeli war with Iran has no end in sight as strikes on both sides continue. With Iran’s capitulation failing to materialize and the IRGC’s true strength revealed, the conflict is in a state of evolution. On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss shifting US war aims, the rising price of oil as the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint, and just how long this all might last.
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