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Brief: After the Ultimatum in Belarus

Geopolitical Futures -
Background: Belarus remains unstable. Neither President Alexander Lukashenko nor the political opposition has much of an advantage. An ultimatum set by Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the...
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Brief: Russia and Ukraine Sit Down to Discuss Trade

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Background: The Kremlin has in recent years used all the tools at its disposal to regain lost influence over the post-Soviet republics. In Ukraine,...
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The US Rediscovers North Africa

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Analysis Hilal Khashan -
Earlier this month, U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper visited Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco on a diplomatic tour of North Africa. The trip, one...

Recent Analysis

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Will US Troops Return to Taiwan?

AnalysisPhillip Orchard -
For the past several years, China has been going to exaggerated lengths to isolate Taiwan – diplomatically, militarily, even epidemiologically. But Taipei and Washington...
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The Stability of Foreign Policy Amid Political Chaos

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AnalysisGeorge Friedman -
In the 1970s, President Richard Nixon stepped into the political and social chaos wrought by the Johnson administration and compounded it substantially. Hence, when...
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Not Quite a Lebanese-Israeli Entente

AnalysisCaroline D. Rose -
On Oct. 14, a delegation from the Lebanese government travelled by helicopter to the town of Ras Naqoura, just north of the Lebanese-Israeli border,...
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The US Rediscovers North Africa

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AnalysisHilal Khashan -
Earlier this month, U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper visited Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco on a diplomatic tour of North Africa. The trip, one...
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Russia’s Low-Key Problem in Kyrgyzstan

AnalysisEkaterina Zolotova -
On Oct. 4, Kyrgyzstan held parliamentary elections that, true to form, ended in political unrest. Rallies broke out the next day, leaving more than...
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In Search of a Solution to Russia’s Strategic Problem

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AnalysisGeorge Friedman -
Russian President Vladimir Putin described the collapse of the Soviet Union as the greatest geopolitical catastrophe in history. Though it may not be true...
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Japan’s Glacial Ascendance

AnalysisPhillip Orchard -
For such a historic transition of power, the handover from Shinzo Abe, Japan’s longest-serving and most powerful postwar prime minister, to Yoshihide Suga was...
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The Great Divide Between the Arab People and Their Leaders

AnalysisHilal Khashan -
The modern Arab state emerged in the 20th century, roughly around the time of the Arab League’s establishment in 1945. Since then, it has...
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The Tedium of Passion

AnalysisGeorge Friedman -
I normally try to forget the books I write, at least for a while. They can be a trap, enclosing you forever. But I...
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Answering the Question of Iran

AnalysisAllison Fedirka -
Earlier this week, the U.S. special representative for Iran said Washington would keep putting additional pressure on Iran in the days and weeks ahead....
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Conflict in the Caucasus and the New American Strategy

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AnalysisGeorge Friedman -
During the Cold War, the United States opposed the Soviet Union wherever the Soviet Union sought to make inroads. Some interventions were necessary and...
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A New US Embassy in Iraq?

AnalysisCaroline D. Rose -
Last week, Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi received a phone call that he had been dreading since he took the premiership in May. On...
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What We're Reading

What We’re Reading: Superpowers and Scary Stories

What We're ReadingPhillip Orchard, Cole Altom -
Superpower Showdown: How the Battle Between Trump and Xi Threatens a New Cold War By Bob Davis and Lingling Wei “Superpower Showdown” provides a broad overview...
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What We’re Reading: Pandemics and the US-UK ‘Special Relationship’

What We're ReadingRyan Bridges, Caroline D. Rose -
The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History By John M. Barry They coughed until their abdominal muscles and rib cartilage were shredded,...
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What We’re Reading: Work-Life Balance and Mapping the Energy Sector

What We're ReadingAllison Fedirka, Ekaterina Zolotova -
Fair Play: A Game-Changing Solution for When You Have Too Much to Do (and More Life to Live) By Eve Rodsky I’m fascinated by the effects...
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What We’re Reading: Measuring Our Enemies and Ourselves

What We're ReadingGeorge Friedman, Valentina Jovanovski -
The Cold War: A Military History By David Miller During the Cold War, there were constant discussions about when the Soviets might invade Europe and how...
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Social Media Is Old-Fashioned and Radically Destabilizing

George Friedman -
The New York Times has reported that the Justice Department is about to bring an antitrust suit against Google specifically targeting Google’s power in...
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George Friedman’s new book:
The Storm Before the Calm

The Storm before the Calm“Who will win the acrimonious 2020 presidential election? Shockingly, it won’t actually matter that much, argues renowned geopolitical forecaster George Friedman. America, he contends, is governed less by leaders and legislation and more by cyclical forces that work deep within the nation’s unique structure.”
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Daily Memo

What's geopolitically important today.

Daily Memo: Nearing the End of Brexit?

Americas Geopolitical Futures -
Brexit talks are back on. After a nearly one-week hiatus, negotiations on a trade agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union resumed...
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Media / Interviews

Leighton Smith Podcast Episode 84: Presidential Debates and Michael Bassett on NZ's Election

Geopolitical Futures -
Geopolitical Futures’ George Friedman’s gives his perspective on the US election, and why he doesn’t watch Presidential debates. Full episode
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Brief: India Breathes New Life Into ‘the Quad’ Alliance

Asia PacificGeopolitical Futures -
Editor’s Note: The following is a new content type we are calling Briefs. They are real-time updates on the world’s most pressing geopolitical events,...
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Daily Memo: China’s Uneven Recovery

AmericasGeopolitical Futures -
China’s economy falls short. China’s economy grew an estimated 4.9 percent year over year in real terms in the third quarter, according to official...
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Not Quite a Lebanese-Israeli Entente

AnalysisCaroline D. Rose -
On Oct. 14, a delegation from the Lebanese government travelled by helicopter to the town of Ras Naqoura, just north of the Lebanese-Israeli border,...
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COVID-19 Wreaked Havoc on EU Economies

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Weekly GraphicGeopolitical Futures -
(click to enlarge) A second wave of COVID-19 has hit Europe. Health officials predicted this outcome as governments lifted social restrictions, which permitted the virus...
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Special Report:

The Geopolitics of Donald Trump

“There are those who regard Donald Trump as too stupid to make decisions. There are others who regard him as a brilliant if instinctive crafter of policy. What we know of him is this. "

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The World in 2020

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