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Viewing the global economy through the lens of geopolitics

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Daily Memo
What's Geopolitically Important Today

Daily Memo: Doubts About Iran’s Nuclear Pledges, Alarmingly Low Oil Reserves

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Internal discord. CIA Director John Ratcliffe told President Donald Trump and other senior officials...
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Weekly Graphic

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Weekly Graphic

The Great Data Center Race

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Geopolitical Futures -
(click to enlarge) The global race to build data centers has become a competition for AI leadership, with countries pursuing different but complementary strategies. The...
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Europe

Europe Drifts Closer to Stagnation

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Geopolitical Futures -
(click to enlarge) According to Eurostat's estimates, economic growth in the European Union remained positive but slowed during the first quarter of 2026. Seasonally adjusted...
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Americas

Colombia’s Presidential Race

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Geopolitical Futures -
(click to enlarge) Colombia will hold presidential elections on May 31, with a runoff on June 21 if no candidate wins an outright majority. The...
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Asia Pacific

China’s Lackluster Economic Data

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(click to enlarge) China’s economy continues to face a difficult balance as weak domestic demand, a prolonged property downturn and external geopolitical risks weigh on...
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Latest Analysis

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The Tension Between the Geopolitical and the Political in the Iran War

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Analysis George Friedman -
The agreement reached Sunday between Iran and the United States does not end the war. It is essentially a 60-day ceasefire agreement, during which...
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The Iran Deal and Coming Conflicts

AnalysisKamran Bokhari -
The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran is reportedly over. The prime minister of Pakistan, which...
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George Answers Your Questions: Reflecting on D-Day

AnalysisGeorge Friedman -
Reflecting on D-Day June 8, 2026 Question: The U.S. and Germany were already fighting an undeclared...
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The Truth About Inflation

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In Mali, Turkey Sees an Opening

AnalysisRonan Wordsworth -
Mali is becoming a test case for the next phase of Turkish influence in...
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War, Diplomacy and Managing Iran

AnalysisKamran Bokhari -
Even if a U.S.-Iran agreement succeeds in halting active hostilities, it is unlikely to...
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Russia’s Chechnya Problem

AnalysisGeopolitical Futures -
By Andrew Ryvkin For over a century, Chechnya has been Russia’s most volatile republic. Rumored...
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Lebanon on the Brink

AnalysisHilal Khashan -
On June 8, U.S. President Donald Trump intervened to halt the latest escalation in...
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Daily Memo: Kim and Xi Meet, Cuba Makes Preparations

AmericasGeopolitical Futures -
Expanding ties. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged...
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George Answers Your Questions: Israel’s Strategic Problem

AnalysisGeorge Friedman -
Israel’s Strategic Problem June 2, 2026 Question: What accommodation does a country seek with those who...
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Russia’s Limitations in the Caucasus

AnalysisEkaterina Zolotova -
Parliamentary elections will be held in Armenia on June 7. The Civil Contract party,...
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Daily Memo: Hungary-Ukraine Deal, Iraqi Disarmament Plans

AmericasGeopolitical Futures -
One step closer. Hungary and Ukraine have reached a deal that could pave the...
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George Friedman, Geopolitical Futures

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The Tension Between the Geopolitical and the Political in the Iran War

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George Friedman -
The agreement reached Sunday between Iran and the United States does not end the war. It is essentially a 60-day ceasefire agreement, during which...
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The Storm Before the Calm

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The World in 2026

China has effectively replaced Russia as a global power.

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The Road to 2040

We look into the future and forecast what the world…

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The World in 2025

The international order is about to get less orderly.

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Press Room

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US Bargaining With China and Russia

Analysis Kamran Bokhari -
With the arrival of the second Trump administration, great power competition is at an inflection point. Both Russia and China face internal crises that...
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American Naval Policy and China

Analysis George Friedman -
Editor’s note: If it feels as though the world is changing, that’s because it is. Global economic reconfiguration, demographic decline and geopolitical realignment have...
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Europe: The Agony and Ecstasy of US Relations

Analysis Antonia Colibasanu -
One of the most pressing geopolitical issues Europe faces is its evolving relationship with the United States. This relationship will be critical as Europe...
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D-Day and the Cycles of American Reinvention

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VideoGeopolitical Futures -
The US is divided at home and gridlocked abroad. Is the chaos a sign of decline or just the normal process of American progress? On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss how underestimating the US led to D-Day, the myth of American decline, and how historical cycles can predict the process of US reinvention. Also: foreign policy shifts and competition with China.
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D-Day and the Cycles of American Reinvention

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PodcastGeopolitical Futures -
The US is divided at home and gridlocked abroad. Is the chaos a sign of decline or just the normal process of American progress? On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss how underestimating the US led to D-Day, the myth of American decline, and how historical cycles can predict the process of US reinvention. Also: foreign policy shifts and competition with China.
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Daily Memo: Russia and Ukraine, Lebanon and Pakistan

AnalysisGeopolitical Futures -
Making adjustments. Russia has banned military cargo traffic via a key land corridor to Crimea, according to the commander of Ukraine’s unmanned systems, Robert...
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Russia’s Chechnya Problem

AnalysisGeopolitical Futures -
By Andrew Ryvkin For over a century, Chechnya has been Russia’s most volatile republic. Rumored to be terminally ill, its leader, Ramzan Kadyrov, who built...
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Europe Drifts Closer to Stagnation

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EuropeGeopolitical Futures -
(click to enlarge) According to Eurostat's estimates, economic growth in the European Union remained positive but slowed during the first quarter of 2026. Seasonally adjusted...
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Daily Memo: Germany and France Scrap Fighter Jet Plan

AnalysisGeopolitical Futures -
No-go. Germany and France have agreed not to pursue a landmark project to develop and build a new-generation fighter jet. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz...
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