Daily Memo
What's Geopolitically Important Today

Daily Memo: Belarusian Fertilizers, US-Japan Relations

Belarusian rapprochement. The U.S. will remove sanctions on two key Belarusian fertilizer producers amid...

EU Economies Can’t Catch a Break

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(click to enlarge) The European economy failed to sustain its modest momentum in the fourth quarter of 2025, with growth slowing to 0.2 percent compared...

Disrupted Oil Operations in the Persian Gulf

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(click to enlarge) Though oil prices have surged since the start of fighting in the Middle East, investors are still hopeful that the war will...

The Chokepoint at the Center of the US-Iran Standoff

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(click to enlarge) Brent crude prices have risen modestly in recent weeks, climbing into the low $70s after several months of relative stability. The move...

Global Growth Expected to Slow in 2026

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(click to enlarge) According to the World Bank's Global Economic Prospects report, the global economy in 2025 demonstrated greater resilience than expected, given trade tensions...

Latest Analysis

Conditions for US-Russia Rapprochement Fall Into Place

Seven months after the historic Alaska summit between Russia and the United States, the time may finally be right for a rapprochement. In a...

Assessing Iran’s Capacity Amid Decapitation and Degradation

In the assessment of U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard on March 18,...

Why Asia Hopes for a Short Mideast War

The war in Iran has already had far-reaching consequences in the Asia-Pacific. The region...

The World in 2026

China has effectively replaced Russia as a global power.

Geopolitics, War and Iran

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In 1940, the United States placed Japan in a difficult position. Japan was a...

Inside Iran’s Mosaic Defense

Modern military conflicts follow a certain operational logic, which goes something like this: The...

George Answers Your Questions: A Summary of the Iran War, So Far


A Summary of the Iran War, So Far March 11, 2026 Question: Is your first option...

Iran’s Doctrine of Protracted War

The war between Iran and the U.S.-Israeli coalition is unlikely to produce a rapid...
From the Desk of George Frieman
George Friedman, Geopolitical Futures

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Geopolitics, War and Iran

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In 1940, the United States placed Japan in a difficult position. Japan was a country with very limited resources. It had to import oil,...

The Storm Before the Calm

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Forecasts

The World in 2025

The international order is about to get less orderly.

The Road to 2040

We look into the future and forecast what the world…

The World in 2024

The coming year will revolve around what happens in the U.S., China and Russia – and between Israel and Hamas.

Read our annual or long term forecasts.

Press Room

US Bargaining With China and Russia

With the arrival of the second Trump administration, great power competition is at an inflection point. Both Russia and China face internal crises that...

American Naval Policy and China

Editor’s note: If it feels as though the world is changing, that’s because it is. Global economic reconfiguration, demographic decline and geopolitical realignment have...

Europe: The Agony and Ecstasy of US Relations

One of the most pressing geopolitical issues Europe faces is its evolving relationship with the United States. This relationship will be critical as Europe...

Partners

All over the world, there are institutions that share our enthusiasm for geopolitics. Sometimes they even share our written work with their readers, so it’s only fair that we return the favor. Enter our Partners page, where we occasionally reprint pieces from these institutions free of charge for our subscribers. The views contained herein are those of the authors and do not represent those of GPF and its staff.

Trending Content

Daily Memo: Trade Disruptions, Trump Calls on Allies

Oil trade. A Pakistani-flagged oil tanker was able to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and is now heading toward Pakistan, Bloomberg reported. Ship-tracking...

Inside Iran’s Mosaic Defense

Modern military conflicts follow a certain operational logic, which goes something like this: The less centralized an enemy’s command and control is, the less...

George Answers Your Questions: A Summary of the Iran War, So Far


A Summary of the Iran War, So Far March 11, 2026 Question: Is your first option effectively the so-called mowing the lawn strategy? That would be...

EU Economies Can’t Catch a Break

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(click to enlarge) The European economy failed to sustain its modest momentum in the fourth quarter of 2025, with growth slowing to 0.2 percent compared...

Daily Memo: US Eases Russian Oil Sanctions

Temporary relief. The United States decided to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian oil currently at sea to ease the economic fallout of the war...

Iran’s Doctrine of Protracted War

The war between Iran and the U.S.-Israeli coalition is unlikely to produce a rapid or decisive outcome. Rather than a short campaign defined by...