South Asia

Daily Memo: Washington Makes Headway in Central Asia

The U.S. in Central Asia. The United States is in talks with the governments of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan to allow both countries to keep...

Daily Memo: Belarus Launches Military Drills

Drills near Poland. Belarus announced new military exercises to take place at its Brest training ground, near the Polish border, as well as in...

The Scalable World War Ahead

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan begins a new era of confrontation between the U.S. and China and marks a new stage...

A New Trade Pact in the Indo-Pacific

The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, the U.S.-led effort to counter China and foster economic engagement in the region, has officially launched. India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand,...

The Global Economy Rebounds, Stumbles Again

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(click to enlarge) Economic data for the past two years – that is, the majority of the COVID-19 pandemic – has finally been processed and...

China’s Role in Sri Lanka’s Economic Crisis

Over the past several weeks, Sri Lanka has been experiencing an economic crisis that has brought the country to the brink of bankruptcy. Nearly...

India’s Defiance of Washington’s Russia Strategy

Under normal circumstances, India would have little reason to care about what happens in Ukraine. The current circumstances, however, are far from normal. The...

Myanmar: A New Front in the Indian-Chinese Rivalry

It’s not uncommon for India and China to spar with one another in the Himalayas, but a new front in their rivalry may be...

New Political Strategies in a New Economic Order

At several debates I’ve attended since the beginning of the year – and in several responses I’ve received from readers – one question is...

The World in 2022

“The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you can see,” Winston Churchill once quipped. Predicating expectations of the future on an understanding...

Globalization After the Pandemic

We enter 2022 with the same hope that we had as we entered 2021: that the pandemic will end soon. This time, we will...

2021 Year-End Review

(click to enlarge) Scale: Hit, Partial Hit, Inconclusive, Partial Miss, Miss Global The defining feature of 2021 will be insularity. Countries will simply be too consumed with...

The World Ocean Versus the Continent

For centuries, the power that controls the seas – the “World Ocean” – has successfully stymied continental rivals and dictated the rules of world trade. The...

Fertilizers and Food Insecurity

Next week is Thanksgiving, a U.S. holiday that celebrates, and is celebrated with, food. This year, however, Americans are reckoning with rising food prices....

Explanations for the Labor Shortage

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The current breakdown of the global supply chain threatens to change the future of the world. If this worsens, the fabric of the global...

Bonus Chapter: The Five Eyes

Editor’s note: In a supplementary chapter of his book “The Storm Before the Calm,” GPF founder George Friedman wrote last summer about how the...

Latest Posts

The heartland of South Asia is the Indo-Gangetic Plain, a large and fertile region based around the Indus and Ganges river systems, as well as the Bramaputra in Bangladesh and eastern India.

The center of gravity of South Asia is the balance of power between Pakistan and India. Historically, India has struggled to assert itself within the subcontinent because of its complex internal divisions.

The future of Afghanistan matters to the degree it could weaken Pakistan, thereby tipping the balance of power in India’s favor.

There is an intense rivalry between China and India, but the geography of the region, including the existence of buffer states such as Nepal and Bhutan, typically prevents them from coming to blows.

Read Regional Assessment

The Future of India...

India will work to improve ties with Central Asia and strengthen alliances with secondary powers like Japan and Australia.

South Asia in our Memos

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Latest Posts

Daily Memo: Ukraine’s Navy to Receive New Flagship

New ship. Ukraine’s navy launched the Ada-class anti-submarine corvette in Istanbul on Sunday. It’s the first of two Turkish-made corvettes under a deal signed...

Not Even the Ukraine War Changes the Central Asian Equation

Russia may be losing its grip on Central Asia. Though the countries of the region are generally thought of as strategic Russian partners –...

Global Food Insecurity

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(click to enlarge) Widespread food insecurity is back on the table. War and organized violence are the main drivers of acute food insecurity, followed by...

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