South Asia

The World in 2022

“The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you can see,” Winston Churchill once quipped. Predicating expectations of the future on an understanding...

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2021 Year-End Review

(click to enlarge) Scale: Hit, Partial Hit, Inconclusive, Partial Miss, Miss Global The defining feature of 2021 will be insularity. Countries will simply be too consumed with...

The World Ocean Versus the Continent

For centuries, the power that controls the seas – the “World Ocean” – has successfully stymied continental rivals and dictated the rules of world trade. The...

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Bonus Chapter: The Five Eyes

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On Geoeconomics

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The Road to 2040: A Summary of Our Forecast


Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the next 25 years.

Recent Articles

The heartland of South Asia is the Indo-Gangetic Plain, a large and fertile region based around the Indus and Ganges river systems, as well as the Bramaputra in Bangladesh and eastern India.

The center of gravity of South Asia is the balance of power between Pakistan and India. Historically, India has struggled to assert itself within the subcontinent because of its complex internal divisions.

The future of Afghanistan matters to the degree it could weaken Pakistan, thereby tipping the balance of power in India’s favor.

There is an intense rivalry between China and India, but the geography of the region, including the existence of buffer states such as Nepal and Bhutan, typically prevents them from coming to blows.

Read Regional Assessment

Required Reads: South Asia

The Future of India...

India will improve its economic and military cooperation with Australia as China intensifies its pressure on India from all sides.

South Asia in our Memos

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