Americas Archives | Geopolitical Futures

Americas

The Americas constitute the entire Western Hemisphere but are dominated by the United States, which has long held the rest of the lands to its north and south in its sphere of influence. South America and the Caribbean are far less politically and geographically coherent than North America, and until that changes, they will continue to live in the shadow of their northern neighbor.

Brief: The US, Panama and Mutual Security

Geopolitical Futures - February 25, 2021

Background: The United States has always had fundamental interest in protecting maritime approaches to its land, including those from the Caribbean Sea. Securing and...

Mexico’s Energy Conundrum

Allison Fedirka - February 24, 2021

Last week, ice storms disrupted natural gas supplies to Mexico and so revived an existential question over how energy independent the country can and...

Brief: Blackouts Highlight Mexico’s Energy Dilemma

FREE

Geopolitical Futures - February 16, 2021

Background: The Mexican economy’s high dependency on the U.S. economy is a double-edged sword. On one hand, having close ties to the biggest economy...

Speculating on China and Cuba

FREE

George Friedman - February 16, 2021

From a military standpoint, China is in a difficult position. It is a trading power and needs access to the global oceans. Its significant...

Cuba Is on the Clock

Allison Fedirka - February 15, 2021

Cuba may be a geostrategically valuable country, but its value far outweighs its actual power. The island’s proximity to the rest of North America’s...

Brief: An Opening for Colombia and Cuba?

Geopolitical Futures - February 9, 2021

Background: Cuba’s position in the Gulf of Mexico and proximity to the Florida coast has always made the island a strategic benefit when the...

In Brazil, Choosing Sides in the US-China Rivalry

Allison Fedirka - February 1, 2021

Brazil, a country that tries to avoid at nearly any cost, squarely aligning with one side in a conflict, is facing one of its...

Brief: U.S.-Canada Ties Get Complicated

Geopolitical Futures - January 26, 2021

Background: The U.S.-Canada alliance is crucial for both countries and for the stability of North America. In fact, it’s difficult to find another pair...

The World in 2021

Geopolitical Futures - January 6, 2021

Introduction Our 2020 global forecast began as follows: Economic dysfunction will remain the main driver of the international system in 2020. Economic stress does not simply...

Forecast Tracker: 2020 Year-End Review

Geopolitical Futures - December 30, 2020

(click to enlarge) Scale: Hit, Partial Hit, Inconclusive, Partial Miss, Miss Global Economic dysfunction will be the main driver of the international system in 2020. Economic stress...

The Geopolitics of the Americas

Colonial governance, production systems and transportations routes heavily shaped the economic and political development of the region well in to its post-colonial era of independence.

The Western Hemisphere has been dominated by the United States since the start of the 20th Century.

South America has struggled to produce a regional leader partly because no single country embodies the necessary qualities to become one. Brazil has the most potential, thanks to the size of its of territory, population, natural resource deposits and economy. Argentina is a counterweight to Brazilian influence in.

The modern governments are actually young and relatively inexperienced democracies. They are still refining their social contracts with their citizens.

Read Regional Assessment

Required Reads: The Americas

From our 2020 Forecast...

Brazil will use its weight and dominance in Mercosur to get Argentina to fall in line with Brasilia’s desired trade policies. There will likely be much resistance, and Brazil will then shift to questioning the utility of Mercosur to get Argentina to fall in line.