Americas

George Answers Your Questions: Cuba Moves Under US Pressure

Cuba Moves Under US Pressure June 22, 2026 Question: Unfortunately, having the U.S. meddling into how Cuba will be governed in the future is the worst...

South American Sovereignty Amid US-China Competition

The clearest sign of South America’s strategic evolution is the arrival of modern combat aircraft in Brazil and Argentina. In March, Brazil unveiled the...

Cuba Moves Under US Pressure

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Cuba’s president went on television last week to announce profound changes in the economy. Cuba formally remains a communist country, although it is not...

Daily Memo: Kim and Xi Meet, Cuba Makes Preparations

Expanding ties. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged to deepen ties during a meeting in Pyongyang on Monday....

Daily Memo: Hungary-Ukraine Deal, Iraqi Disarmament Plans

One step closer. Hungary and Ukraine have reached a deal that could pave the path for the latter to begin accession negotiations with the...

George Answers Your Questions: The US-China Summit and Cuba

George Answers Your Questions: After the US-China Summit May 23, 2026 Question: “Socialist Market Economy with Chinese Characteristics” is the CCP’s official framing for its political,...

Colombia’s Presidential Race

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(click to enlarge) Colombia will hold presidential elections on May 31, with a runoff on June 21 if no candidate wins an outright majority. The...

George Answers Your Questions: After the US-China Summit

After the US-China Summit May 18, 2026 Question: I am not seeing the bits about China abandoning communist ideology in the quotes that are presented. What...

America’s Obsession With Cuba

Cuba and the United States have had a long history with each other. In 1818, Spain opened Cuba to international trade, and the United...

Global Economic Trends

(click to enlarge) Though global economic growth has stabilized since the 2020 pandemic meltdown, it remains below pre-pandemic averages and unevenly distributed across regions. After...

Speculating on South America’s Extraordinary Future

This is not a forecast. A forecast is a prediction, the validity of which my ego and I are professionally responsible for. What I...

Cuba’s Energy Crisis

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(click to enlarge) Cuba's energy crisis has been going on for years but is now taking on a geopolitical dimension. The country's electricity infrastructure has...

Threats to New US-Canada Bridge

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(click to enlarge) Canada finds itself in a difficult position when it comes to its two largest trading partners, the U.S. and China. Ottawa and...

George Answers Your Questions: Comparing US Cycles

George Answers Your Questions: The Dubai Talks on the Ukraine War Jan. 31, 2026 Question: You have written about the 80-year institutional cycle and the 50-year...

The Growing Crisis in Cuba

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(click to enlarge) This week, Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel warned citizens of the need to sacrifice as adjustments are made in energy and food distribution...

Washington’s Red Lines in Latin America

There’s evidence to suggest that the United States and China are gradually getting closer to some kind of understanding over economic and security matters....

Latest Posts

Colonial governance, production systems and transportations routes heavily shaped the economic and political development of the region well in to its post-colonial era of independence.

The Western Hemisphere has been dominated by the United States since the start of the 20th Century.

South America has struggled to produce a regional leader partly because no single country embodies the necessary qualities to become one. Brazil has the most potential, thanks to the size of its of territory, population, natural resource deposits and economy. Argentina is a counterweight to Brazilian influence in.

The modern governments are actually young and relatively inexperienced democracies. They are still refining their social contracts with their citizens.

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Required Reads: The Americas

From our Forecast...

The U.S. will rely on public-private efforts to secure its influence in the region. It will also welcome economic engagements from allied nations like Japan or South Korea.

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Information Warfare in the AI Age | ClubGPF Clip with George Friedman

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Is modern technology leading us toward a new geopolitical weapon? In this recent ClubGPF Live Discussion, Retired USCG Rear Admiral Doug Fears joins GPF Chairman George Friedman to discuss the evolution of information warfare, how state actors can exacerbate social fractures using AI, and why cyberspace as a whole must evolve or become a threat to national security.

Daily Memo: Concerns Over US Arms Stockpiles and Black Sea Transit

Advice on Iran. U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Dan Caine reportedly told top Trump administration officials privately that the U.S. needs to find...

The Broader Impact of a New Alliance in the Middle East

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Last week, my colleague Kamran Bokhari predicted the emergence of a new Middle Eastern geopolitical order. He noted that that order would be built...