Americas

Explanations for the Labor Shortage

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The current breakdown of the global supply chain threatens to change the future of the world. If this worsens, the fabric of the global...

Mexico’s Moment

The stars have aligned to present Mexico with the unique opportunity, however slight, to improve its position relative to the United States. Mexico’s proximity...

On Geoeconomics

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Last week, I spoke and moderated at several conferences in person – a rare thing since the pandemic began – whose topics ranged from...

Mercosur’s Changing Trade Patterns

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(click to enlarge) In 1991, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay established Mercosur to increase their participation in global trade and improve their negotiating positions with...

Brief: Uruguay Breaks With Mercosur

Background: South America’s two largest economies, Brazil and Argentina, led efforts in 1991 to establish the Southern Common Market, known as Mercosur, with Paraguay...

Chile: Under Pressure at Home and Constrained Abroad

For a generation, Chile has been an outlier in Latin America. Between its economic development, per capita gross domestic product, strong institutions and general...

Outside Powers Shape Venezuelan Negotiations

From Aug. 13 to Aug. 14, delegations from the Venezuelan government and opposition coalition met in Mexico to conduct their first round of negotiations...

Mexico’s Search for Leverage

Mexico’s geographic position is a blessing and a curse. The country benefits from its proximity to the United States, which absorbs a ton of...

The Costs and Benefits of Patronizing Cuba

In February, we wrote that Cuba’s economy was reaching a breaking point and that the government was looking for a patron to ensure its...

Brief: 3 Cuban Generals Are Dead

Background: The Cuban government’s staying power rests on its ability to maintain social order, often through repressing dissent and controlling the economy. Its control...

The Road to 2040: A Summary of Our Forecast

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Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the next 25 years.

The Road to 2040

Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

What’s at Stake in Cuba’s Protests

Thousands of Cubans took to the streets across the island on July 11 to protest the economy and their living conditions, both of which...

Brief: Cuban Protests

Background: The Cuban government is one of few relics of the Cold War still standing. The communist government put in place by Fidel Castro...

US-Mexico Border Security: A Modern Version of an Old Problem

U.S.-Mexico defense and security cooperation is a geopolitical conundrum. Geography dictates that the two countries must work together to address security concerns across their...

In Peru, Uncertainty at Home, Consistency Abroad

Ten days have passed since Peru’s presidential election, and though all the votes have been counted, electoral authorities have yet to declare a winner....

Recent Articles

Colonial governance, production systems and transportations routes heavily shaped the economic and political development of the region well in to its post-colonial era of independence.

The Western Hemisphere has been dominated by the United States since the start of the 20th Century.

South America has struggled to produce a regional leader partly because no single country embodies the necessary qualities to become one. Brazil has the most potential, thanks to the size of its of territory, population, natural resource deposits and economy. Argentina is a counterweight to Brazilian influence in.

The modern governments are actually young and relatively inexperienced democracies. They are still refining their social contracts with their citizens.

Read Regional Assessment

Required Reads: The Americas

From our 2021 Forecast...

Countries will be unable to climb out of the economic setbacks brought on by the pandemic. Few outside parties will be able to capitalize on this opportunity to expand influence.

Americas in our Memos

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More from the Americas

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Latest Posts

Europe’s Faltering Economic Recovery

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(click to enlarge) As the COVID-19 vaccination campaign proceeds, the pandemic seems almost under control in Europe. Social distancing measures are being lifted and economies...

Daily Memo: OPEC+ for Natural Gas, French Warship in the Taiwan Strait

Gas producers’ alliance? Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman said Riyadh would consider Russia’s invitation to cooperate on natural gas issues. He suggested such...

Forecasting and Living

I started writing a book in 2015 that would eventually have the title “The Storm Before the Calm.” In it, I identified a series...

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