Americas

How Paraguay Gets By

Not all countries are created equal. Geopolitics revolves around power – its acquisition, maintenance and loss relative to other countries. How much power a...

Will the Coronavirus Forge a Brave New World?

Of all the major geopolitical players on the planet, Mother Nature may be the toughest adversary. Nature has neither imperatives nor constraints to guide...

Latin America’s Place in the World

Whether they like it or not, most countries are drawn into the international system in one way or another. For this reason, introducing the...

Mother Nature as a Geopolitical Force

History is biased, and not just because the victors tend to write it. The study of history is largely the study of humankind –...

Why Venezuela’s Maduro Isn’t Worse Off Than He Is

The past few months have been a nightmare for economies that rely on oil. After the coronavirus pandemic sent prices plummeting, finance ministries had...

Mercosur Dies a Slow Death

The interests of the trade bloc’s most important members, Brazil and Argentina, are no longer aligned.

Four Coronavirus Lessons That We Will (or Won’t) Learn

How would we respond differently if another outbreak happened?

Medical, Economic, Social, Military: The State of Play

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A riot broke out in a poor, predominantly Muslim neighborhood north of Paris over the weekend. The immediate cause was a traffic offense and...

George Friedman’s Thoughts: Prisms of Thought

When I began the Thoughts column, I explained that I was using it as a space for thinking about a new book intended to...

Coronavirus and the Peril of Politicizing Medicine

Even medical institutions are political.

Colonial governance, production systems and transportations routes heavily shaped the economic and political development of the region well in to its post-colonial era of independence.

The Western Hemisphere has been dominated by the United States since the start of the 20th Century.

South America has struggled to produce a regional leader partly because no single country embodies the necessary qualities to become one. Brazil has the most potential, thanks to the size of its of territory, population, natural resource deposits and economy. Argentina is a counterweight to Brazilian influence in.

The modern governments are actually young and relatively inexperienced democracies. They are still refining their social contracts with their citizens.

Read Regional Assessment

Required Reads: The Americas

From our 2020 Forecast...

Brazil will use its weight and dominance in Mercosur to get Argentina to fall in line with Brasilia’s desired trade policies. There will likely be much resistance, and Brazil will then shift to questioning the utility of Mercosur to get Argentina to fall in line.

Americas in our Memos

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Global Investment Outlook

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(click to enlarge) Given the growing geopolitical tensions in a number of regions around the world and the challenging economic conditions, 2020 never promised to...

Daily Memo: A Japan-Russia Peace Treaty, a New EU Budget

Japan and Russia talk peace. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Friday that Russia has presented Japan with a conceptual framework for a World...

Europe Is Still Waiting for a Recovery Fund Breakthrough

Earlier this month, the European Commission released its midyear assessment of the state of European economies. The so-called summer interim report was a lot...