The World in 2021

Introduction Our 2020 global forecast began as follows: Economic dysfunction will remain the main driver of the international system in 2020. Economic stress does not simply...

Forecast Tracker: 2020 Year-End Review

(click to enlarge) Scale: Hit, Partial Hit, Inconclusive, Partial Miss, Miss Global Economic dysfunction will be the main driver of the international system in 2020. Economic stress...

Brazil and the EU: The Value of Going Green

Representatives from Brazil and the European Union will meet next month to discuss an environmental addendum for the Mercosur-EU free trade agreement, without which...

Brief: U.S.-Mexican Relations Go South

Background: The U.S.-Mexico relationship is among the most difficult to manage for both Washington and Mexico City. Disagreements are common but are normally kept...

Brief: Havana’s Rare Concession to Protesters

Background: For Washington, Cuba’s proximity to the United States and location at the mouth of the Gulf of Mexico makes it a strategically important...

The Geopolitics of Vaccine Distribution

The American pharmaceutical firm Pfizer, in collaboration with German firm BioNTech, surprised the world when it announced that its coronavirus vaccine showed 90 percent...

In Mexico, the Makings of a Political Crisis

A showdown is brewing in Mexico between the central government and a group of 10 state governors, known as the Federalist Alliance, who have...

Coronavirus Trends in Latin America

(click to enlarge) The coronavirus pandemic has hit Latin America hard. By the end of September, the region accounted for 28 percent of global cases...

Washington’s New Economic Strategy in Latin America

A few weeks ago, the head of the U.S. National Security Council – not a State Department official, as would normally be the protocol...

The Trouble With a Premature Vaccine

Hope is beginning to fade that the world will have a safe and effective coronavirus vaccine before the predicted “second wave” arrives that will...

Colonial governance, production systems and transportations routes heavily shaped the economic and political development of the region well in to its post-colonial era of independence.

The Western Hemisphere has been dominated by the United States since the start of the 20th Century.

South America has struggled to produce a regional leader partly because no single country embodies the necessary qualities to become one. Brazil has the most potential, thanks to the size of its of territory, population, natural resource deposits and economy. Argentina is a counterweight to Brazilian influence in.

The modern governments are actually young and relatively inexperienced democracies. They are still refining their social contracts with their citizens.

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Required Reads: The Americas

From our 2020 Forecast...

Brazil will use its weight and dominance in Mercosur to get Argentina to fall in line with Brasilia’s desired trade policies. There will likely be much resistance, and Brazil will then shift to questioning the utility of Mercosur to get Argentina to fall in line.

Americas in our Memos

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Latest Posts

COVID-19’s Impact on Labor

(click to enlarge) A key trend in 2021 is the rebalancing of the global economic and financial systems after the disruption caused by COVID-19. The...

Live Discussion: United States: Act I of the Cycle

This video is restricted to ClubGPF members only

Daily Memo: Sanctions and Trade Deals

Happy anniversary to a trade deal. It's the one-year anniversary of the signing of the "phase one" trade deal between the U.S. and China....

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