Geopolitical Futures

Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Storm Before the Calm and The Next 100 Years. GPF is non-ideological, analyzes the world and forecasts the future using geopolitics: political, economic, military and geographic dimensions at the foundation of a nation.

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Daily Memo: TikTok and the Tech War

TikTok and the tech war. The White House is expected to ban the popular social media platform TikTok in the coming days on grounds that personal data gleaned by the app’s Chinese parent company, a private behemoth called ByteDance, poses a national security risk. Microsoft said its CEO is in talks with the White House and with TikTok itself to scoop up the company’s U.S. operations on the cheap. The U.S. is following the lead of India here, which banned TikTok following the clash between Chinese and Indian troops in disputed parts of the Himalayas. National security concerns about an app known mostly for viral clips of dancing zoomers may seem silly, but the imbroglio around TikTok speaks to the underlying reality of the U.S.-China “tech war”: Given the blurring lines between commercial and military or intelligence technologies, including apps that collect staggering amounts of personal data, it’s not hard to come up with reasons that just about any emerging Chinese technology could threaten U.S. interests. And the broader geopolitical competition will push the U.S. to err on the side of mitigating worst-case scenarios, however real or imagined. TikTok won’t be the last Chinese-owned app in the crosshairs. Last year, […]

EU Coronavirus Recovery Package

(click to enlarge) After months of negotiation, the European Union reached a compromise on a coronavirus-related economic recovery fund. On July 21, the European Council approved the “Next Generation EU”...

Daily Memo: Postponed Elections in Hong Kong

Delayed elections in Hong Kong. Hong Kong is pressing the pause button on its next legislative election. Chief Executive Carrie Lam announced that the city, with Beijing’s support, will...

Daily Memo: Dismal German Economy Stats

Dismal German economy stats. German statistics agency Destatis released preliminary data for the second quarter on Thursday, and though final figures won’t be published until Aug. 25, it’s already...

Daily Memo: Hedging Bets in the Asia-Pacific

Hedging bets in the Asia-Pacific. Australia’s defense and foreign ministers met with the U.S. secretaries of defense and state in Washington on Monday and Tuesday. According to Australian Foreign...

Daily Memo: Making Moves in the South China Sea

South China Sea moves. During his annual state of the union address on Monday, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte ruled out allowing the U.S. to set up military bases in...

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