Asia Pacific

With China, Australia Tests Its Limits

Recent reports suggest that Australia is taking a more active role in supporting peace in the South China Sea. At a meeting organized for...

Maoist Methods Are Making a Comeback in Xi’s China

Chinese leaders are reverting to Maoist-era socialist policies to support the country’s crumbling economy and strengthen social control. Specifically, the government is reassuming control...

The Limits of Russian-North Korean Relations

Some 100 Russian citizens visited North Korea this month, stopping at the capital of Pyongyang before braving the slopes of a nearby ski resort....

Corruption and Low Morale Still Plague China’s Military

It’s early days in the Year of the Dragon, but Beijing’s purge of the People’s Liberation Army shows no signs of stopping. The latest...

Daily Memo: Another Bank Blocks Russian Clients

Tightening the screws. China’s Chouzhou Commercial Bank is no longer conducting transactions with Russian and Belarusian clients, Russian business daily Vedomosti reported. Transactions using...

China’s Bid to Manage the Silver Economy

From a struggling real estate sector to serious labor shortages, China is beset by problems that will require a lot of time and effort...

The World in 2024

Editor's note: Below are the compiled links to our entire 2024 annual forecast. Please follow the links for quick navigation, or download the PDF...

Global Forecast for the Next Year

This is not a detailed forecast of the fate of every country for 2024. Rather, it is an attempt to identify the main trends...

2024 Annual Forecast: Japan

Forecasting national behavior is built on continuums. One continuum is a nation’s history. Another is our analytic method. Simply looking at nations will not...

2024 Annual Forecast: China’s Modern Dynasty

Forecasting national behavior is built on continuums. One continuum is a nation’s history. Another is our analytic method. Simply looking at nations will not...

2024 Annual Forecast: China

Forecasting national behavior is built on continuums. One continuum is a nation’s history. Another is our analytic method. Simply looking at nations will not...

China and the Philippines Square Off

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The Philippines has long been an important component of Washington’s alliance network in the Asia-Pacific. Its geography is such that Manila can help to...

How New Zealand Could Save the Five Eyes

New Zealand’s new government was elected in October but has already signaled what its foreign policy will look like – and it revolves around...

Defining Global Economic Issues in 2024

Almost a year ago, we highlighted several trends that would define the world economy in the coming years. Briefly, they were trade and economic...

Japan’s Strategic Investment Offensive

As Japan grows more ambitious as a regional leader, it has enhanced its diplomatic outreach accordingly. In late November, for example, reports emerged that...

China and India Struggling in Afghanistan

Over two years since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan, China and India are both trying to forge working relationships with the regime....

Daily Memo: Israel Update, Problems for British Banking

Fighting continues. Israel Defense Forces said on Friday they would resume combat operations against Hamas in the Gaza Strip after the group violated the cease-fire...

In the US-China Talks, Actions Speak Louder Than Words

The much-anticipated meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping is finally here. The visit, which takes place today at the...

The World Aflame

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A few weeks ago, I wrote a piece titled “The World Begins to Reorder Itself.” There is certainly a new order coming, but unlike...

Daily Memo: Gaza Border, US Deployment

Gaza border opens. The Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt has reopened. This comes after the Gaza Borders and Crossings Authority released a...

Latest Posts

East Asia is the world’s most dynamic economic region. Since the early 1980s, annual trans-Pacific trade has outpaced trans-Atlantic trade.

The center of gravity in East Asia is the relationship between the two countries with the region’s largest economies and strongest militaries – China and Japan – and their individual and collective relationships with the United States.

The key to this relationship is China’s internal economic and domestic political situation. When China is unified and strong, as it is at the moment, its influence in the Asian mainland is pervasive, with the peripheral states in southeast Asia looking to Japan and the United States for balance. When China goes through a fragmentary phase, as it did from the mid-19th century until the communists took power in 1949, the peripheral states can at times assert themselves.

Despite some saber-rattling in the South China Sea, East Asia’s challenges in recent years have had more to do with economics than with aggression. But it is important to keep in mind that the last 30 or so years in Asia have been something of an aberration. For most of the 20th century, East Asia was rife with instability and war.

U.S. strategy in East Asia is two-fold. On one hand, the U.S. seeks to maintain a balance of power between Japan and China. On the other hand, the U.S. employs a maritime strategy whereby it cultivates close relationships with island nations in the western Pacific to maintain its control over trade routes and contain the Chinese on the mainland.

Read Regional Assessment

Read Assessment of Australia

Required Reads: Asia Pacific

From our Forecast...

China will avoid intense involvement in international affairs. Where it does engage, it will do so economically rather than militarily.

Asia Pacific in our Memos

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Latest Posts

Daily Memo: Niger Expels US Troops, EU Invests in Egypt

Ousted. Niger’s ruling military junta ordered U.S. troops to leave the country with immediate effect. The United States has roughly 1,000 troops stationed at...

No One Wants Responsibility for Haiti

Though Washington is preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, strained trade relations with China and a potential regional conflict in the Middle East, U.S....

A Closer Look at NATO Spending

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(click to enlarge) In a meeting with NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, Poland's president advocated that each NATO member increase defense spending to 3 percent of...

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