Asia Pacific

Eurasia in Crisis

Demonstrations against Beijing’s zero-COVID policy have surged in the past week, with people voicing their frustration at not only the lockdown measures but also...

The Future of US-China Relations

Earlier this week, the G-20 summit opened in Indonesia, during which the long-awaited meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping...


The United States has asked Ukraine to be open to negotiations with Russia, according to a report that was likely carefully leaked by U.S....

Stability for Xi, Not for China

Ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, which ended last Sunday, it seemed as though President Xi Jinping had lost...

Hu Jintao

An extraordinary thing happened in China at the final meeting of the party congress over the weekend. Hu Jintao, the previous president of China,...

To Change the World, China Must Change

Over the past month, I have spoken at several conferences about the challenges that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent economic war pose...

On Geoeconomics: Systemic Challenges

It’s no secret that central banks and governments the world over are dealing with rising inflation and economic uncertainty, both of which need to...

Is China Losing Its Grip on the Media?

Over the past few weeks, there have been unusual signs of discontent in China, none stranger than an article written in a party mouthpiece...

Daily Memo: Washington Makes Headway in Central Asia

The U.S. in Central Asia. The United States is in talks with the governments of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan to allow both countries to keep...

Winning Friends and Influence at China’s National Congress

The immediate future of China’s economy rests on the rapidly approaching 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. Unlike other recent congresses, where...

The Limits of the Israeli-Chinese Partnership

In recent weeks, observers have pointed to an apparent strengthening of relations between Israel and China. A new center for research on Israeli-Chinese relations,...

1991: False Dawn

Editor’s note: Last February, Russia invaded Ukraine in what was merely the newest iteration of Russia’s timeless struggle for strategic depth. In doing so,...

Daily Memo: Belarus Launches Military Drills

Drills near Poland. Belarus announced new military exercises to take place at its Brest training ground, near the Polish border, as well as in...

The Permanence of War and Peace

Last week my friend and colleague, Jacek Bartosiak, wrote a piece for GPF titled “The Scalable World War Ahead,” in which he warned that...

The Scalable World War Ahead

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan begins a new era of confrontation between the U.S. and China and marks a new stage...

China and Russia’s Strategic Problem

The war in Ukraine, now about 6 months old, is strategically important for a variety of reasons. If Russia defeats Ukraine and takes control...

The Fallout Over Taiwan

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit to Taiwan predictably sparked outrage in China, which responded by flexing its muscles through some not-at-all subtle...

Destabilizing Major Powers

The Geopolitical Futures model argues that the northern tier of entities are the center of power in the global system and define how the...

In China, New Purges, New Targets

China’s restructuring of real estate giant Evergrande Group is not exactly going as planned. In mid-May, the company was on track to deliver a...

A Confrontation China Can’t Afford

A rare event occurred in Henan, China, earlier this month when more than 1,000 depositors gathered in front of a branch of the People’s...

Latest Posts

Eurasia in Crisis


East Asia is the world’s most dynamic economic region. Since the early 1980s, annual trans-Pacific trade has outpaced trans-Atlantic trade.

The center of gravity in East Asia is the relationship between the two countries with the region’s largest economies and strongest militaries – China and Japan – and their individual and collective relationships with the United States.

The key to this relationship is China’s internal economic and domestic political situation. When China is unified and strong, as it is at the moment, its influence in the Asian mainland is pervasive, with the peripheral states in southeast Asia looking to Japan and the United States for balance. When China goes through a fragmentary phase, as it did from the mid-19th century until the communists took power in 1949, the peripheral states can at times assert themselves.

Despite some saber-rattling in the South China Sea, East Asia’s challenges in recent years have had more to do with economics than with aggression. But it is important to keep in mind that the last 30 or so years in Asia have been something of an aberration. For most of the 20th century, East Asia was rife with instability and war.

U.S. strategy in East Asia is two-fold. On one hand, the U.S. seeks to maintain a balance of power between Japan and China. On the other hand, the U.S. employs a maritime strategy whereby it cultivates close relationships with island nations in the western Pacific to maintain its control over trade routes and contain the Chinese on the mainland.

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Required Reads: Asia Pacific

From our 2022 Forecast...

China will avoid intense involvement in international affairs. Where it does engage, it will do so economically rather than militarily.

Asia Pacific in our Memos

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Latest Posts

Daily Memo: EU Leaders Eye Deal on Russian Oil Price Cap

Inching closer. EU leaders have agreed tentatively on a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian seaborne oil, with an adjustment mechanism to keep...

From the Emirates to Mars

As you receive this, we are on a flight to the United Arab Emirates. Abu Dhabi is hosting a meeting on space flight, and...

Daily Memo: Signs of Economic Growth in Russia

Adapting. Russia’s purchasing managers’ index increased at its fastest pace in nearly six years, from 50.7 in October to 53.2 in November. (A rating...

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