Asia Pacific

The Emerging Maritime Architecture in Southeast Asia

The U.S. shift toward greater burden-sharing is especially consequential for Southeast Asia because the region sits astride maritime arteries that sustain China’s economic power...

China Just Made Trump’s Energy Dilemma Worse

Barely a week after U.S. President Donald Trump hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington in an effort to stabilize U.S.-China relations, Beijing has...

The Trump-Xi Detente Has a Taiwan Problem

The U.S.-China relationship is on more stable footing after last week’s summit between their leaders. They agreed to reduce tariffs on roughly $30 billion...

Thinking About the US-China Summit

The summit between presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump takes place today in Washington, the previous one having taken place in Beijing in May....

How Geography Limits Russo-Chinese Military Cooperation

The prospect of a formal alliance between China and Russia has long worried their adversaries, especially the United States. But Beijing and Moscow are...

BRICS Finds Its Purpose in a Fragmenting World

Almost since its founding in 2006, the BRICS has faced criticism for being a talking shop rather than a functional organization. However, if the...

The Paradox of China’s Military Purges

The formal removal of Gen. Zhang Youxia and Gen. Liu Zhenli in August marks the latest and most consequential stage of President Xi Jinping’s...

The Global Tradeoffs of Regional Wars

After a 286-day deployment that included 264 consecutive days at sea to support operations in the Middle East, the USS Abraham Lincoln reached Thailand...

Mongolia and the Geopolitics of Dependence

August was a busy month for work travel at GPF. While Antonia was exploring the origins of geopolitics in Sweden, my journey took me...

Eurasia’s New Balance of Power

The principal powers in Eurasia have just entered an unusually dense period of high-level diplomacy. The week began with a two-day meeting of the...

The Big Potential in Indonesia’s Military Expansion

On Aug. 12, an Indonesian frigate conducted a passing exercise with a Chinese naval frigate east of Taiwan. Jakarta described the exercise as routine,...

Daily Memo: Iran and Oman Discuss Hormuz

Hormuz management. Iran and Oman agreed to continue talks on restoring safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz following a meeting between their foreign...

Questioning Indonesia’s Commitment to Nonalignment

Indonesia’s recent decision to deepen cooperation with China at first glance appears to be incompatible with Jakarta’s traditional foreign policy of nonalignment. The two...

India and China’s Paradoxical Relationship

FREE
(click to enlarge) India and China present one of contemporary geopolitics’ greatest paradoxes: two nuclear-armed rivals locked in an intensifying military standoff while simultaneously becoming...

Daily Memo: Syria Considers Joining Defense Pact

Entering the fold? Syria is considering joining the mutual defense pact signed on Aug. 7 by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, Syrian Foreign Minister...

The Geoeconomics of Water

Editor’s note: The following report was originally published in the July issue of GeoEconomic Lens, a subscription-based service that applies our geopolitical analysis toward...

Net Assessment: The Evolution of the Global System

In geopolitics, a net assessment is a high-level summation of geopolitical reality. It focuses not on the details but on the broad outlines of...

The Contradiction at the Heart of China’s Military Reforms

China’s military is undergoing its most significant transformation in decades. The recent appointment of dozens of new commanders, the restructuring of Central Military Commission...

What China’s Missile Test Says About the Pacific Order

On July 6, a Chinese nuclear-powered submarine in the South China Sea launched a nuclear-capable ballistic missile. Carrying a simulated warhead, the missile traveled...

China’s Opportunity in North Korea

Over the past few months, there has been an unprecedented level of diplomatic coordination between China and North Korea. President Xi Jinping visited North...

Latest Posts

East Asia is the world’s most dynamic economic region. Since the early 1980s, annual trans-Pacific trade has outpaced trans-Atlantic trade.

The center of gravity in East Asia is the relationship between the two countries with the region’s largest economies and strongest militaries – China and Japan – and their individual and collective relationships with the United States.

The key to this relationship is China’s internal economic and domestic political situation. When China is unified and strong, as it is at the moment, its influence in the Asian mainland is pervasive, with the peripheral states in southeast Asia looking to Japan and the United States for balance. When China goes through a fragmentary phase, as it did from the mid-19th century until the communists took power in 1949, the peripheral states can at times assert themselves.

Despite some saber-rattling in the South China Sea, East Asia’s challenges in recent years have had more to do with economics than with aggression. But it is important to keep in mind that the last 30 or so years in Asia have been something of an aberration. For most of the 20th century, East Asia was rife with instability and war.

U.S. strategy in East Asia is two-fold. On one hand, the U.S. seeks to maintain a balance of power between Japan and China. On the other hand, the U.S. employs a maritime strategy whereby it cultivates close relationships with island nations in the western Pacific to maintain its control over trade routes and contain the Chinese on the mainland.

Read Regional Assessment

Read Assessment of Australia

Required Reads: Asia Pacific

From our Forecast...

China will avoid intense involvement in international affairs. Where it does engage, it will do so economically rather than militarily.

Asia Pacific in our Memos

Continue to the category

More from Asia Pacific

Continue to the category

Latest Posts

George Answers Your Questions: Iran and Azerbaijan

Thinking About How the Iran War Ends Oct. 5, 2026 Question: It seems the returning Congress will be more inclined to end the war. If it...

Middle East Security, Long-Term US Strategy, and the Big Picture | Q&A with George Friedman

FREE
Are we living through an unprecedented collapse of the global order, or is this just another turbulent chapter in the geopolitical cycle? On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to answer subscriber questions on the state of the world. Topics include the future of the Middle East and US strategy, the value of “ineffective” diplomatic maneuvers, and a big-picture evaluation of global economic vulnerabilities.

Middle East Security, Long-Term US Strategy, and the Big Picture | Q&A with George Friedman

FREE
Are we living through an unprecedented collapse of the global order, or is this just another turbulent chapter in the geopolitical cycle? On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to answer subscriber questions on the state of the world. Topics include the future of the Middle East and US strategy, the value of “ineffective” diplomatic maneuvers, and a big-picture evaluation of global economic vulnerabilities.