Asia Pacific

German and Japanese Military Resurgence

The United States is stepping back from its role as the world’s security guarantor – a position it has held for some 80 years....

France’s Plan to Bridge Europe and Asia

France is implementing a new grand strategy in response to a rapidly changing world and an array of regional and global challenges. Defense is...

The Evolution of the Global Defense Industry

The global defense industry is undergoing a profound transformation driven by rapid technological advancement and growing concern over supply chain resilience. The changes underway...

In China, Billionaires Return to Favor – on the Party’s Terms

Chinese President Xi Jinping has extended an olive branch to the country’s wealthiest private entrepreneurs after years of subjecting them to scrutiny and regulatory...

Pakistan’s Crucial Role in China’s Military Strategy

Had India not conducted unprecedented airstrikes in Pakistan on May 7 – retaliation for a terrorist attack in Kashmir two weeks earlier – Chinese-made...

A Shrinking China Scrambles for a New Economic Model

China is shifting from an export- and investment-driven economy to one based on domestic consumption. The reason is persistent economic stagnation and a growing...

America’s New Threat Assessment

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(click to enlarge) The 2025 Annual Threat Assessment from the U.S. Intelligence Community presents a detailed overview of a rapidly evolving threat landscape defined by...

A New Challenge to Kim’s Rule in North Korea

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un could be facing a new threat to his grip on power led by none other than his own...

As Trade Changes, So Does US Defense

Reports from around the world suggest U.S. military policy is at odds with itself. On the one hand, the United States has pledged to...

A New Phase in the US-China Trade War

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(click to enlarge) Markets briefly stabilized after a 90-day reprieve on some of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, but the U.S.-China trade war is escalating...

Southeast Asia Heeds Trade Warnings

When they were first announced, U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs brought panic and confusion to markets all around the world, perhaps nowhere...

China’s Strategic Desperation and Taiwan Drills

China’s attempts to manage its economic downturn and prevent it from becoming a political crisis have hit a major obstacle: the shift in U.S....

Defense Industry Winners and Losers Amid Trump Tariffs

For years, Europe has been notoriously slow in developing a coherent strategy for its defense industry. And it never really had a reason to...

Japan’s Slow-Moving Security Independence From the US

Tokyo is reportedly considering the deployment of long-range missiles on Kyushu, the southwesternmost of Japan’s main islands, by early 2026. Because the island faces...

A New Asian Bloc in the Making?

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Senior officials from China, South Korea and Japan will soon meet in Tokyo to try to establish a more formal relationship, replete with security...

Vietnam’s Plan to Become a Middle Power

Vietnam and Indonesia last week elevated their bilateral relationship to a so-called comprehensive strategic partnership, committing to deeper economic cooperation, the removal of barriers...

Graphic Essay: The Evolution of NATO

For the past 75 years, NATO has been the de facto defender of Europe. Virtually every country on the Continent has its own armed...

The Coming Battle for AI

In January, China took the tech world by surprise when it unveiled DeepSeek, an artificial intelligence company that has proved to be as competitive...

China Shifts Its Attitude on the Private Sector

Last month, Chinese President Xi Jinping assembled China’s top corporate leaders for a business forum in Beijing, the first such event since 2018. He...

Japan’s Rice Crisis

Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries recently announced it would release 210,000 tons of rice from its stockpile of 1.1 million tons to...

Latest Posts

East Asia is the world’s most dynamic economic region. Since the early 1980s, annual trans-Pacific trade has outpaced trans-Atlantic trade.

The center of gravity in East Asia is the relationship between the two countries with the region’s largest economies and strongest militaries – China and Japan – and their individual and collective relationships with the United States.

The key to this relationship is China’s internal economic and domestic political situation. When China is unified and strong, as it is at the moment, its influence in the Asian mainland is pervasive, with the peripheral states in southeast Asia looking to Japan and the United States for balance. When China goes through a fragmentary phase, as it did from the mid-19th century until the communists took power in 1949, the peripheral states can at times assert themselves.

Despite some saber-rattling in the South China Sea, East Asia’s challenges in recent years have had more to do with economics than with aggression. But it is important to keep in mind that the last 30 or so years in Asia have been something of an aberration. For most of the 20th century, East Asia was rife with instability and war.

U.S. strategy in East Asia is two-fold. On one hand, the U.S. seeks to maintain a balance of power between Japan and China. On the other hand, the U.S. employs a maritime strategy whereby it cultivates close relationships with island nations in the western Pacific to maintain its control over trade routes and contain the Chinese on the mainland.

Read Regional Assessment

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From our Forecast...

China will avoid intense involvement in international affairs. Where it does engage, it will do so economically rather than militarily.

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Latest Posts

Daily Memo: Fallout From US Strikes on Iran

Iran developments. Officials are still gauging the fallout from the United States’ strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend. According to the...

War and the Constitution

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The U.S. attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities has raised an important constitutional issue. The U.S. Constitution gives Congress the authority to declare war. It...

Iranian Oil and Gas Infrastructure

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(click to enlarge) The Israel-Iran war has severely damaged Iran’s energy infrastructure and raised tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Israeli strikes have hit major...

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