Asia Pacific

Beijing’s View of the Chinese Economy

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At an economic forum last week in Shanghai, a senior Chinese government adviser named Liu Yuanchun, who is also the president of the Shanghai...

In Myanmar, China Considers a New Strategy

In mid-April, China’s People’s Liberation Army conducted live-fire drills along its southern border – the second of its kind this month – amid deteriorating...

Daily Memo: France Calls Out Azerbaijan, Russian Peacekeepers Go Home

French blowback. France recalled its ambassador to Azerbaijan for consultations after accusing Baku of taking “unilateral actions damaging to the relationship between our two...

Is Japan the Next AUKUS Member?

The partnership comprising Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States known as AUKUS is intended to be among the most closely integrated national...

China’s Shrinking BRI Ambitions

Last week, the head of China's Central Commission for Discipline Inspection laid out the watchdog’s main goals for this year. His report focused on...

Is Vietnam Facilitating US-North Korea Talks?

North Korea lies athwart the interests of the world’s most important geopolitical actors – namely, the United States, China and Russia. The government in...

A Rare Bailout in China Sends Mixed Signals

After years of trying to stabilize its troubled real estate sector, Beijing has unexpectedly intervened to support Vanke, the country’s second-largest property developer. This...

With China, Australia Tests Its Limits

Recent reports suggest that Australia is taking a more active role in supporting peace in the South China Sea. At a meeting organized for...

Maoist Methods Are Making a Comeback in Xi’s China

Chinese leaders are reverting to Maoist-era socialist policies to support the country’s crumbling economy and strengthen social control. Specifically, the government is reassuming control...

The Limits of Russian-North Korean Relations

Some 100 Russian citizens visited North Korea this month, stopping at the capital of Pyongyang before braving the slopes of a nearby ski resort....

Corruption and Low Morale Still Plague China’s Military

It’s early days in the Year of the Dragon, but Beijing’s purge of the People’s Liberation Army shows no signs of stopping. The latest...

Daily Memo: Another Bank Blocks Russian Clients

Tightening the screws. China’s Chouzhou Commercial Bank is no longer conducting transactions with Russian and Belarusian clients, Russian business daily Vedomosti reported. Transactions using...

China’s Bid to Manage the Silver Economy

From a struggling real estate sector to serious labor shortages, China is beset by problems that will require a lot of time and effort...

The World in 2024

Editor's note: Below are the compiled links to our entire 2024 annual forecast. Please follow the links for quick navigation, or download the PDF...

Global Forecast for the Next Year

This is not a detailed forecast of the fate of every country for 2024. Rather, it is an attempt to identify the main trends...

2024 Annual Forecast: Japan

Forecasting national behavior is built on continuums. One continuum is a nation’s history. Another is our analytic method. Simply looking at nations will not...

2024 Annual Forecast: China’s Modern Dynasty

Forecasting national behavior is built on continuums. One continuum is a nation’s history. Another is our analytic method. Simply looking at nations will not...

2024 Annual Forecast: China

Forecasting national behavior is built on continuums. One continuum is a nation’s history. Another is our analytic method. Simply looking at nations will not...

China and the Philippines Square Off

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The Philippines has long been an important component of Washington’s alliance network in the Asia-Pacific. Its geography is such that Manila can help to...

How New Zealand Could Save the Five Eyes

New Zealand’s new government was elected in October but has already signaled what its foreign policy will look like – and it revolves around...

Latest Posts

East Asia is the world’s most dynamic economic region. Since the early 1980s, annual trans-Pacific trade has outpaced trans-Atlantic trade.

The center of gravity in East Asia is the relationship between the two countries with the region’s largest economies and strongest militaries – China and Japan – and their individual and collective relationships with the United States.

The key to this relationship is China’s internal economic and domestic political situation. When China is unified and strong, as it is at the moment, its influence in the Asian mainland is pervasive, with the peripheral states in southeast Asia looking to Japan and the United States for balance. When China goes through a fragmentary phase, as it did from the mid-19th century until the communists took power in 1949, the peripheral states can at times assert themselves.

Despite some saber-rattling in the South China Sea, East Asia’s challenges in recent years have had more to do with economics than with aggression. But it is important to keep in mind that the last 30 or so years in Asia have been something of an aberration. For most of the 20th century, East Asia was rife with instability and war.

U.S. strategy in East Asia is two-fold. On one hand, the U.S. seeks to maintain a balance of power between Japan and China. On the other hand, the U.S. employs a maritime strategy whereby it cultivates close relationships with island nations in the western Pacific to maintain its control over trade routes and contain the Chinese on the mainland.

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Read Assessment of Australia

Required Reads: Asia Pacific

From our Forecast...

China will avoid intense involvement in international affairs. Where it does engage, it will do so economically rather than militarily.

Asia Pacific in our Memos

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Latest Posts

Daily Memo: Iran Plans More Nuclear Plants, Russia Eyes African Ports

Atomic power. Iran plans to build more nuclear power plants to increase its generation capacity and ensure its national energy security, the head of...

European Views on US Global Posture

The notion that all countries operate within constraints is one of the main pillars of geopolitics. It came up repeatedly during my recent visit...

Live Discussion: The Changing Landscape of Threats

Geopolitical and national security threats are constantly changing and evolving, sometimes it's hard to keep up. In this week's ClubGPF live discussion, Rear Admiral...

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