United States

Europe’s Strategic Moment

It’s been two years since Russia invaded Ukraine, so it’s time to lay out the strategic situation as I see it. In February 2022,...

A US-Iran War

The Biden administration has plainly stated its wish to avoid a direct conflict with Iran, but soon it may not have much choice. The...

The World in 2024

Editor's note: Below are the compiled links to our entire 2024 annual forecast. Please follow the links for quick navigation, or download the PDF...

Global Forecast for the Next Year

This is not a detailed forecast of the fate of every country for 2024. Rather, it is an attempt to identify the main trends...

Fishing for the Fourth Institutional Cycle

I have written a great deal about socio-economic cycles but far less on institutional cycles, specifically how the fourth institutional cycle in American history...

AUKUS in 2024

The trilateral security partnership comprising the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia – known simply as AUKUS – is among the most interesting...

The US Re-Engages With Africa

After three decades of treating the African continent mostly as an afterthought, the U.S. is adjusting its strategy to curb the growing influence of...

China and the Philippines Square Off

The Philippines has long been an important component of Washington’s alliance network in the Asia-Pacific. Its geography is such that Manila can help to...

How New Zealand Could Save the Five Eyes

New Zealand’s new government was elected in October but has already signaled what its foreign policy will look like – and it revolves around...

Defining Global Economic Issues in 2024

Almost a year ago, we highlighted several trends that would define the world economy in the coming years. Briefly, they were trade and economic...

A Border Dispute Pits US Interests Against Each Other

The leaders of Venezuela and Guyana met on Dec. 14 in St. Vincent and the Grenadines for talks meant to ease tensions along their...

2024 Annual Forecast: The United States

Forecasting national behavior is built on continuums. One continuum is a nation’s history. Another is our analytic method. Simply looking at nations will not...

In the US-China Talks, Actions Speak Louder Than Words

The much-anticipated meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping is finally here. The visit, which takes place today at the...

Daily Memo: Gaza Border, US Deployment

Gaza border opens. The Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt has reopened. This comes after the Gaza Borders and Crossings Authority released a...

Hints, Bluffs and Uncertainty

The practice of foreign policy, like many other practices, consists of hints and bluffs amid uncertainty. There’s value in making the worthless seem invaluable...

Daily Memo: Hamas Holds Talks in Moscow

Hamas in Moscow. Representatives of Hamas met in Moscow with Iranian and Russian officials for talks on the situation in Gaza. They discussed the...

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The Geopolitics of the United States

The United States needed to expand west to the Pacific coast in order to ensure strategic depth, generate economic activity and development and reduce the presence of any threat on its western front.

The rich agriculture area between the Rockies and Appalachian Mountains has an intricate river system favorable for exports through New Orleans Port via the Mississippi River.

North America can only be threatened from the sea and therefore control of the seas plays an important element of American strategy.

After the Soviet Union fell, the United States had no strategic challenger. The US remains the world’s super power and actively works to prevent the emergence of any potential regional power that could one day challenge it.

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Required Reads: United States

From our Forecast...

The United States is entering a period of domestic disorder that will last a decade or so. The crisis will not affect U.S. foreign policy, even if it looks like it will.

United States in our Memos

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Latest Posts

Europe’s Strategic Moment

It’s been two years since Russia invaded Ukraine, so it’s time to lay out the strategic situation as I see it. In February 2022,...

Daily Memo: Sahel Fallback, Peace Talks Invite

Sanctions U-turn. The Economic Community of West African States has taken significant steps toward re-engaging with the Sahel region's military juntas by lifting some...

The Limits of Russian-North Korean Relations

Some 100 Russian citizens visited North Korea this month, stopping at the capital of Pyongyang before braving the slopes of a nearby ski resort....

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The World in 2024

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