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The Thucydides Trap and the Rise and Fall of Great Powers

Roughly 2,400 years ago, Thucydides, a Greek historian and author of “History of the Peloponnesian War,” expressed a view that resonates in strategic thinking to...

Iraq, Caught Between a Neighbor and a Superpower

Late in the evening of June 16, Iraqi counterterrorism forces stormed the headquarters of Kataib Hezbollah, a pro-Iran militia, arresting 14 insurgents and confiscating...

The ‘Spies and Commandos’ of Afghanistan

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The media exploded late last week with reports that Russia had paid the Taliban bounties to kill U.S. and Afghan troops. The plot was...

Will the Coronavirus Forge a Brave New World?

Of all the major geopolitical players on the planet, Mother Nature may be the toughest adversary. Nature has neither imperatives nor constraints to guide...

Recession or Depression

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In March, we declared our 2020 forecast null and void. The COVID-19 pandemic had essentially rendered it irrelevant. The question we posed in March...

The Redemption of Prediction

Foreseeing what will happen is not difficult. It requires only that we face the fact that life always repeats itself if not perfectly, then...

D-Day and Stalin

Editor’s Note: The following analysis was published on the anniversary of D-Day in 2019. It has been lightly edited. Over 70 years after it was...

The Beginning of the Cyclic Shift

A number of people have asked me if the events this week are what I was predicting in my book, “The Storm Before the...

Mother Nature as a Geopolitical Force

History is biased, and not just because the victors tend to write it. The study of history is largely the study of humankind –...

Friedman’s Thoughts In and Around Geopolitics: Why There Won’t Be a War With China

Jacek Bartosiak, a close friend and collaborator, wrote a piece earlier in the week that concluded with a discussion of U.S.-China relations. He and...

The Geopolitics of the United States

The United States needed to expand west to the Pacific coast in order to ensure strategic depth, generate economic activity and development and reduce the presence of any threat on its western front.

The rich agriculture area between the Rockies and Appalachian Mountains has an intricate river system favorable for exports through New Orleans Port via the Mississippi River.

North America can only be threatened from the sea and therefore control of the seas plays an important element of American strategy.

After the Soviet Union fell, the United States had no strategic challenger. The US remains the world’s super power and actively works to prevent the emergence of any potential regional power that could one day challenge it.

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Required Reads: United States

From our 2020 Forecast...

The economic downturn will intensify the social crisis in the United States, compounding the ongoing political crisis.

United States in our Memos

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Global Investment Outlook

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(click to enlarge) Given the growing geopolitical tensions in a number of regions around the world and the challenging economic conditions, 2020 never promised to...

Daily Memo: A Japan-Russia Peace Treaty, a New EU Budget

Japan and Russia talk peace. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Friday that Russia has presented Japan with a conceptual framework for a World...

Europe Is Still Waiting for a Recovery Fund Breakthrough

Earlier this month, the European Commission released its midyear assessment of the state of European economies. The so-called summer interim report was a lot...