United States

The Debate Over America First

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Since the 1930s, there has been a debate in the United States over a foreign policy based on “America First,” a nationalistic policy that...

The World Ocean Versus the Continent

For centuries, the power that controls the seas – the “World Ocean” – has successfully stymied continental rivals and dictated the rules of world trade. The...

Japan’s Indispensable Role in Southeast Asia

One of the funnier moments of the past few years in geopolitics took place in 2017 in Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's bedroom. Duterte had...

Fertilizers and Food Insecurity

Next week is Thanksgiving, a U.S. holiday that celebrates, and is celebrated with, food. This year, however, Americans are reckoning with rising food prices....

A New Mutually Assured Destruction

To whatever extent the U.S. and China are truly sliding toward a zero-sum Cold War-type rivalry, Beijing appears to be game at least for...

Forecasting Time

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Around November each year, we at GPF begin our forecasting process for the coming year. In a real sense, we are always forecasting, as...

What’s Driving the Spike in Energy Prices?

Inflation has been a big story around the world for much of 2021. But the spike in prices for consumer goods should have been...

Explanations for the Labor Shortage

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The current breakdown of the global supply chain threatens to change the future of the world. If this worsens, the fabric of the global...

How the Global Economy Works, or Seems To

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There is an interesting pattern that takes place in the global system. A nation emerges that is able to produce industrial products at low...

Brief: The UK and the USMCA

Background: The post-Brexit United Kingdom is still trying to define its new role in the international system. London has been trying to replace the...

Why Australia Spurned France

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The decision by the Australian government to join a U.S.-British consortium to help construct a nuclear submarine capability enraged France, whose previous efforts to...

Mexico’s Moment

The stars have aligned to present Mexico with the unique opportunity, however slight, to improve its position relative to the United States. Mexico’s proximity...

Bonus Chapter: The Five Eyes

Editor’s note: In a supplementary chapter of his book “The Storm Before the Calm,” GPF founder George Friedman wrote last summer about how the...

On Geoeconomics

Last week, I spoke and moderated at several conferences in person – a rare thing since the pandemic began – whose topics ranged from...

Brief: North Korea Tests a Missile and Biden

Background: North Korea has been relatively quiet for the past year or so while it deals with pandemic pressures and other internal matters, which...

John F. Kennedy and the Origin of Wars Without End

I’ve spent the past few weeks trying to answer a fundamental question: Why did the United States, economically and militarily the most powerful nation...

Recent Articles

The Geopolitics of the United States

The United States needed to expand west to the Pacific coast in order to ensure strategic depth, generate economic activity and development and reduce the presence of any threat on its western front.

The rich agriculture area between the Rockies and Appalachian Mountains has an intricate river system favorable for exports through New Orleans Port via the Mississippi River.

North America can only be threatened from the sea and therefore control of the seas plays an important element of American strategy.

After the Soviet Union fell, the United States had no strategic challenger. The US remains the world’s super power and actively works to prevent the emergence of any potential regional power that could one day challenge it.

Read Regional Assessment

Required Reads: United States

From our 2021 Forecast...

Washington is now engaged in a massive redefinition of its foreign policy. The growing selectivity of American involvement will be the primary reality of 2021, even if the rhetoric does not match it.

United States in our Memos

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Latest Posts

Daily Memo: New EU Measures Against Belarus

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Targeting Belarus. The European Commission announced on Wednesday temporary new measures to toughen asylum processing rules on the Belarusian border. Poland, Latvia and Lithuania...

In the Middle East, a New Era of Alliances Emerges

Middle Eastern relations as we’ve known them for decades are over. As ambitious states try to expand their influence throughout the region, interests, not...

Daily Memo: Inflation Expectations, Chinese Real Estate News

Inflation expectations. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told Congress that the Fed will stop using the word “transitory” to describe current inflation in...

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