Eurasia

The Thucydides Trap and the Rise and Fall of Great Powers

Roughly 2,400 years ago, Thucydides, a Greek historian and author of “History of the Peloponnesian War,” expressed a view that resonates in strategic thinking to...

Russia’s Arctic Ambitions

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The Russian government is reigniting its push into the Arctic. Despite the challenging global economic environment, the Kremlin plans to build at least five...

Beijing’s Big Bet in Hong Kong

When Beijing retook control of Hong Kong from the British 23 years ago, the understanding was that Hong Kong would maintain a high degree...

The ‘Spies and Commandos’ of Afghanistan

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The media exploded late last week with reports that Russia had paid the Taliban bounties to kill U.S. and Afghan troops. The plot was...

Will the Coronavirus Forge a Brave New World?

Of all the major geopolitical players on the planet, Mother Nature may be the toughest adversary. Nature has neither imperatives nor constraints to guide...

For Russia, the Future Is North

Stabilizing its Arctic regions is becoming a priority for Moscow.

D-Day and Stalin

Editor’s Note: The following analysis was published on the anniversary of D-Day in 2019. It has been lightly edited. Over 70 years after it was...

Mother Nature as a Geopolitical Force

History is biased, and not just because the victors tend to write it. The study of history is largely the study of humankind –...

Russia’s Choice: Its Buffer Zone or Its Economy

The coronavirus slowdown is forcing the Kremlin to confront decisions about its gas sales sooner than it had hoped.

Four Coronavirus Lessons That We Will (or Won’t) Learn

How would we respond differently if another outbreak happened?

Central Asia is a highly strategic region traditionally trapped between several major powers but generally dominated by Russia, whose primary objective remains protecting the buffer zones that extend all the way to Eastern Europe.

The Russian government’s power depends on the security services, provision of economic incentives to a small group of elites and the acquiescence of the Russian population.

Ongoing regional and ethnic tensions threaten the unity of Central Asia and thus, sometimes, to the security of Russia.

Eurasia is highly exposed to Russia economically, especially when it comes to currencies, remittances and labor. Nevertheless, as the Russian economy weakens, partly due to the exporters’ crisis, its financial troubles are contributing to Central Asia’s slow destabilization.

While Russia is the dominant force, the economic slowdown in China, which is a major benefactor of much of Eurasia, is a major risk for Central Asian economies.

Regional Assessment of Russia

Regional Assessment of Central Asia

Required Reads: Eurasia

From our 2020 Forecast...

Russia has managed to maintain stability despite the massive downturn in oil prices. However, there are significant constraints on the standard of living and government services outside the major cities. The export crisis will strike Russia particularly sharply because its economy is largely driven by oil and gas exports. This will increase dissatisfaction in Russia, but not to a point threatening the regime.

Eurasia in our Memos

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