G-7 versus BRICS

The first half of 2022 is ending with a string of major summits. Meetings of national leaders aren’t usually fateful, but the G-7 summit...

A New Phase in the Ukraine War

Wars tend to unfold in phases, though it’s never clear how many phases there will be when the war breaks out, and less clear...

The Paradox of a Strong Ruble

After a precipitous fall at the beginning of the war in Ukraine and the imposition of large-scale Western sanctions, the Russian ruble has surged...

The Evolution of Great Powers

The evolution of military power is one of the most important if underrated geopolitical changes happening in the world today. Throughout the 20th century,...

Chances for Russia’s Outreach to the Middle East

Last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, where he took part in the Gulf Cooperation Council forum. It was...

Struggling to Find the Exit From War

French President Emmanuel Macron said last week that an off-ramp must be found for Russian President Vladimir Putin in Ukraine. This is not a...

The Global Economy Rebounds, Stumbles Again

(click to enlarge) Economic data for the past two years – that is, the majority of the COVID-19 pandemic – has finally been processed and...

America’s Interests in Ukraine

Nearly every time Russia has been invaded, it has been saved by its strategic depth. Russia can’t truly be defeated without first taking Moscow,...

Reactions to Finland’s NATO Membership

On May 15, Finland officially announced that it would apply to join NATO. The debate over whether it would do so had taken place...

How the Ukraine War May End

Russia has been waging war in Ukraine for a little over two months now. That’s not an especially long time. The Korean War lasted...

The US Makes Inroads Into Russia’s Periphery

Countries at war tend to use all the resources they can realistically spare to achieve their desired outcome. The obvious drawback is that the...

The Beginning of a New Era

A week ago, I wrote a piece on the stages of history, pointing out systemic shifts that have taken place for more than 200...

Hungary and Europe’s Energy Puzzle

On April 27, Russia announced that Gazprom stopped sending gas to Bulgaria and Poland after they missed the deadlines Russia set for paying in...

The Ukraine War, Redefined

The war in Ukraine began under a faulty assumption shared by many, including the United States, that if Russia invaded, it would defeat Ukraine,...

Can Africa Replace Russian Energy in Europe?

Unsurprisingly, the economic war against Russia has created tensions in European energy markets, which are scrambling to find alternate sources from what is still...

The World and a Small War

No war is small when you are living in it, but the world is large, and large wars are rare. At the same time,...

Latest Posts

Central Asia is a highly strategic region traditionally trapped between several major powers but generally dominated by Russia, whose primary objective remains protecting the buffer zones that extend all the way to Eastern Europe.

The Russian government’s power depends on the security services, provision of economic incentives to a small group of elites and the acquiescence of the Russian population.

Ongoing regional and ethnic tensions threaten the unity of Central Asia and thus, sometimes, to the security of Russia.

Eurasia is highly exposed to Russia economically, especially when it comes to currencies, remittances and labor. Nevertheless, as the Russian economy weakens, partly due to the exporters’ crisis, its financial troubles are contributing to Central Asia’s slow destabilization.

While Russia is the dominant force, the economic slowdown in China, which is a major benefactor of much of Eurasia, is a major risk for Central Asian economies.

Regional Assessment of Russia

Regional Assessment of Central Asia

Required Reads: Eurasia

From our 2022 Forecast...

Russia will continue to conduct covert and non-military operations to take control and maintain control of its buffers.

Eurasia in our Memos

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More from Eurasia

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Latest Posts

Daily Memo: NATO Enlargement, Independence Referendums

NATO enlargement. Turkey lifted its objections to Finland and Sweden’s applications to join NATO, just ahead of the start of the alliance’s summit in...

G-7 versus BRICS

The first half of 2022 is ending with a string of major summits. Meetings of national leaders aren’t usually fateful, but the G-7 summit...

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