Eurasia

In Armenia, Russia Takes a Wait-and-See Approach

By all appearances, Russia is losing an ally in a part of the world where it can least afford to have enemies. Armenia, the...

Peace and US Interests in the South Caucasus

Peace negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia are an opportunity for the United States to expand its influence in the South Caucasus. A U.S.-brokered peace...

Graphic Essay: Global Chokepoints in Maritime Trade

Editor’s note: The following is the first of what we hope will be many Monthly Graphics, a visual-rich, subscriber-only essay that complements our long-form...

Daily Memo: Hezbollah Considers Its Options

Plan for Hezbollah. A senior officer from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps met in Baghdad with leaders of pro-Iranian factions in Iraq to discuss...

Is a Real Estate Bubble Growing in Russia?

Last week, certain Russian banks suspended issuance of preferential loans for IT specialists, ahead of the expiration at the end of 2024 of a...

The World of Balance

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The international system is always changing. It usually shifts one piece at a time, each one constrained by the system to dampen its impact...

In Cuba, Russia Explores a Counter

Russian warships, including what appears to be a nuclear-powered submarine, have made port in Cuba – just 90 miles or so from the U.S....

Russia’s Gazprom Treads Water

More than two years into the Ukraine war, there has been unexpected optimism surrounding the Russian economy. A recently published report by the European...

Russia and China, Nukes and Alliances

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Last week, Moscow revived an oft-repeated threat to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Their use, of course, requires a few important things. They must...

The Reality of Russo-Chinese Relations

There’s a building in a certain district of Moscow that has adapted to geopolitical trends better than most others. Until 2020, it was car...

Russian Strategy in the Sahel

A date has been set for the United States to fully demobilize from its military bases in Niger. On Sept. 15, American forces will...

Putin’s Peace Plan

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Under President Vladimir Putin, Russia invaded Ukraine under the assumption that Ukraine’s defeat would be rapid and complete, bringing Russia to NATO’s eastern border....

A Government Shakeup in Moscow

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The Russian government announced last week a massive shakeup of its senior staff. Several ministers in civilian sectors such as energy, agriculture, industry and...

Meditations on the Mediterranean

Throughout history, the Mediterranean Sea has been Europe’s most important body of water, shaping its relationship with itself and with the rest of the...

New Strategic Documents Preserve Belarus’ Options

At the end of April, Belarus updated its Military Doctrine and its National Security Concept to respond to urgent security threats, regional volatility and...

Azerbaijan and the South Caucasus Borderlands

As Russia is locked in a difficult war in Ukraine, its southern flank – the South Caucasus – is in disarray. There is a...

Latest Posts

Central Asia is a highly strategic region traditionally trapped between several major powers but generally dominated by Russia, whose primary objective remains protecting the buffer zones that extend all the way to Eastern Europe.

The Russian government’s power depends on the security services, provision of economic incentives to a small group of elites and the acquiescence of the Russian population.

Ongoing regional and ethnic tensions threaten the unity of Central Asia and thus, sometimes, to the security of Russia.

Eurasia is highly exposed to Russia economically, especially when it comes to currencies, remittances and labor. Nevertheless, as the Russian economy weakens, partly due to the exporters’ crisis, its financial troubles are contributing to Central Asia’s slow destabilization.

While Russia is the dominant force, the economic slowdown in China, which is a major benefactor of much of Eurasia, is a major risk for Central Asian economies.

Regional Assessment of Russia

Regional Assessment of Central Asia

From our Forecast...

Russia will continue to conduct covert and non-military operations to take control and maintain control of its buffers.

Eurasia in our Memos

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Daily Memo: Palestinian Unity, EU Funds for Armenia

Coming to agreement. Some 14 Palestinian factions, including Hamas and Fatah, signed a reconciliation declaration following China-mediated talks this week, Chinese state broadcaster CCTV...

Turkey’s Uphill Battle to a Rapprochement With Syria

Since the 1950s, Turkey has expressed interest in the domestic affairs of Syria more than any other Arab country, driven by a long shared...

Daily Memo: China Cuts a Deal and Lending Rates

Surprising terms. China and the Philippines tentatively agreed on a code of conduct for the resupply of Philippine forces at Second Thomas Shoal, a...

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