Eurasia

Belarus’ Next Episode

FREE
Public demonstrations against Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko have intensified. Looked at casually, it seems unlikely that his presidency can survive. If the protesters are...

The Kremlin’s Unusual Silence

Russian President Vladimir Putin will not fly to New York this week for the 75th session of the U.N. General Assembly, reportedly due to...

The Trouble With a Premature Vaccine

Hope is beginning to fade that the world will have a safe and effective coronavirus vaccine before the predicted “second wave” arrives that will...

What We’re Reading: Making America and the Caucasus

American Nations: A History of Eleven Rival Regional Cultures by Colin Woodard There’s no denying a deep social divide exists in the United States. Most anyone...

In Russia, Mercenaries Are a Strategic Tool

Belarusian intelligence has accused Russia of sending private citizens to interfere in the country’s affairs and generally engage in acts of provocation. These same...

The Poisoning of Navalny

FREE
Alexei Navalny, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s highest-profile political opponent, remains alive in a German hospital after being poisoned in the Russian town of Tomsk....

In Belarus, Russia Bides Its Time

Let’s take stock of the situation in Belarus. Two weeks ago, Alexander Lukashenko was reelected president in what is widely considered a sham election....

Vaccine Nationalism Is an Exaggerated Threat

Nationalism is all the rage these days. Following decades of globalization, the pendulum has begun to swing back the other direction, triggering fears that...

The Geopolitics of the Belarusian Election

FREE
Belarus, whose recent elections are making waves throughout the media, has been a pending flashpoint in Europe for some time. The reasons for this...

Forecasting Russia: Strength and Weakness

Our forecast for Russia, dating back to my earliest books, was two-fold: first, that Russia would reassert itself and at least appear to be...

Central Asia is a highly strategic region traditionally trapped between several major powers but generally dominated by Russia, whose primary objective remains protecting the buffer zones that extend all the way to Eastern Europe.

The Russian government’s power depends on the security services, provision of economic incentives to a small group of elites and the acquiescence of the Russian population.

Ongoing regional and ethnic tensions threaten the unity of Central Asia and thus, sometimes, to the security of Russia.

Eurasia is highly exposed to Russia economically, especially when it comes to currencies, remittances and labor. Nevertheless, as the Russian economy weakens, partly due to the exporters’ crisis, its financial troubles are contributing to Central Asia’s slow destabilization.

While Russia is the dominant force, the economic slowdown in China, which is a major benefactor of much of Eurasia, is a major risk for Central Asian economies.

Regional Assessment of Russia

Regional Assessment of Central Asia

Required Reads: Eurasia

From our 2020 Forecast...

Russia has managed to maintain stability despite the massive downturn in oil prices. However, there are significant constraints on the standard of living and government services outside the major cities. The export crisis will strike Russia particularly sharply because its economy is largely driven by oil and gas exports. This will increase dissatisfaction in Russia, but not to a point threatening the regime.

Eurasia in our Memos

Continue to the category

More from Eurasia

Continue to the category

Latest Posts

Daily Memo: More Protests in Belarus, Food Stress in China

Belarus after the inauguration. Protests began on Wednesday in Minsk after the inauguration ceremony of President Alexander Lukashenko, which had not been publicly announced...

Thoughts at 30,000 Feet

There was a time when a flight to a place far away would thrill me. But that was long ago, and it is no...

Daily Memo: Frozen Deployments in the Himalayas, Lukashenko’s Secret Inauguration

China and India freeze troop deployments. Senior Chinese and Indian military officials agreed to refrain from sending additional troops to their contested border between...