On Geoeconomics

Last week, I spoke and moderated at several conferences in person – a rare thing since the pandemic began – whose topics ranged from...

What Rising Prices Reveal About the Russian Grain Market

Last May, the U.S. Department of Agriculture published a rather optimistic forecast for the 2021 grain harvest in Russia. It stated that Russia would...

Brief: Armenia Shakes Up the Caucasus

Background: In the Caucasus, major regional powers Russia, Turkey and Iran compete for influence over the former Soviet republics of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia....

Brief: Russia Reinforces Its Buffer in Central Asia

Background: Central Asia buffers Russia from the ongoing instability in Afghanistan, but Moscow fears that increased migration and the threat of terrorism and extremism...

Brief: Reactions to the EU Carbon Border Tax

Background: When the European Union drafted its most recent long-term budget (2021-27), it prioritized technological advancement and innovation over other areas such as cohesion....

Facing Reality: A New American Strategy

The United States has been at war for almost the entire 21st century, and it’s only 2021. In contrast, the United States was at...

Russian Worries of Collapse

“External threats … are understandable. When we are threatened, we understand who is threatening, what they are threatening , we know what they are...

Brief: Russia Warns of ‘Internal Threats’

Background: More than most, Russia’s leaders have an imperative to maintain their country’s unity. Russia’s size, multinational demographics, uneven living standards and poorly developed...

The State of Russian Inflation

Economic problems accompanied the COVID-19 pandemic, and like the viral outbreak itself, they haven’t really gone away. Perhaps none is more talked about than...

China and the Element of Surprise

A war between China and the United States would be a war between peer powers. That’s not to say they are identical powers; all...

Brief: Russo-China Naval Drills

Background: By many accounts, the bilateral relationship between Russia and China is at an all-time high. It’s welcome news for Beijing and Moscow, and...

Has Uzbekistan’s Time Finally Come?

In our 2019 Annual Forecast, we said we expected Uzbekistan to challenge Kazakhstan as the dominant power in Central Asia. The COVID-19 pandemic delayed...

Brief: The Limits of Belarusian Reforms

Background: Following Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s questionable reelection and major protests last year, it was clear to Minsk that changes were necessary to preserve...

Brief: Russia Tries to Block US Plans for Central Asia

Background: Since the United States began withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban have been gaining strength and neighboring countries have been increasingly concerned...

Brief: Russia Accuses Ukraine of Smuggling Fuel

Background: Relations between Russia and Ukraine have been severely strained for years. Russia wants to bring Ukraine, part of the buffer between it and...

The Road to 2040: A Summary of Our Forecast


Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the next 25 years.

Recent Articles

Central Asia is a highly strategic region traditionally trapped between several major powers but generally dominated by Russia, whose primary objective remains protecting the buffer zones that extend all the way to Eastern Europe.

The Russian government’s power depends on the security services, provision of economic incentives to a small group of elites and the acquiescence of the Russian population.

Ongoing regional and ethnic tensions threaten the unity of Central Asia and thus, sometimes, to the security of Russia.

Eurasia is highly exposed to Russia economically, especially when it comes to currencies, remittances and labor. Nevertheless, as the Russian economy weakens, partly due to the exporters’ crisis, its financial troubles are contributing to Central Asia’s slow destabilization.

While Russia is the dominant force, the economic slowdown in China, which is a major benefactor of much of Eurasia, is a major risk for Central Asian economies.

Regional Assessment of Russia

Regional Assessment of Central Asia

Required Reads: Eurasia

From our 2021 Forecast...

Russia will reinforce its strategic depth by consolidating its influence in the Caucasus and Belarus. It will also expand its influence in Central Asia.

Eurasia in our Memos

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More from Eurasia

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Latest Posts

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Background: Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia in 2008, less than 10 years after a NATO-led peacekeeping operation began there. Serbia, however, has yet...

Daily Memo: German Election Results, Supply Chain Snags

German elections. Germany’s Social Democratic Party won the most seats in Sunday’s national elections, narrowly beating Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union. Both parties...

The Porcupine, or the Pit Viper?

China’s breakneck military buildup has generated all sorts of alarm in both Washington and Taiwan. U.S. arms sales to the island have spiked over...

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