Eurasia

Ukraine and the Long War

Editor’s note: By definition, geopolitics moves slowly. It’s a drawn-out explanation for the long-term trajectory of nations, one that all too often gets lost...

Capitalizing on the South Caucasus

As war continues to rage in Ukraine, the wider conflict between Russia and the West is opening new fronts, ones that won’t see actual...

Russia’s New Foreign Policy Takes Shape

As the Ukraine crisis drags on, it’s becoming increasingly clear that economic and diplomatic ties between Russia and the West won’t be restored any...

Stalin

It’s been nearly 70 years to the day since Josef Stalin died, and his legacy is worth remembering in light of what’s going on...

In Moldova, Ukraine Buys Time

A war of words has troubled Moldova for more than two weeks. It started when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned of a Russian coup...

The Ukraine War, One Year In

It’s been a year since Russia invaded Ukraine, and what many believed would be a short-lived conflict rages on. That’s not to say it’s...

What Happens If Ukraine Falls?

I recently wrote about Russian preparations for a major offensive in Ukraine: a pincer movement that would close Ukrainian forces in from the north...

With Armenia, Russia’s Ties Are Sound

One of the biggest reasons Russia invaded Ukraine is geographic security. Russia’s position is such that it needs to insulate itself from what it...

Searching for a Defining Moment in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine has not yet had a defining moment – that is, a watershed event giving one side or the other so...

Ukraine Heading to Another Showdown

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I should say up front that I am not writing about Chinese balloons. Instead, I am writing about the situation in Ukraine, which is...

Why Russia and Iran Need India’s Help

Last week, Iran’s central bank deputy governor said Iran and Russia had connected their bank messaging systems, a move that should bolster cooperation and...

In South Africa, Russia Prospects for Opportunity

A country as distant and seemingly disinterested as South Africa may not seem like a typical ally for stronger powers, but there’s evidence that...

Forecast for 2023

Our 2023 Annual Forecast, like those before it, is an attempt to provide a sense of the direction of the world. We do this...

Don’t Forget About Water in 2023

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On Jan. 16, the Chinese Ministry of Water Resources announced that Beijing invested more than 1 trillion yuan ($148 billion) on water resource management...

In 2023, Russia Paints a Picture of Economic Success

The World Bank has published a forecast for Russian economic growth in 2023, and the results aren’t pretty. According to its calculations, Russia's gross...

The Wagner Group and Russia’s New General

Moscow has relieved its current general in Ukraine, placing him under the staff of his successor, Gen. Valery Gerasimov. In a way, this makes...

Latest Posts

Central Asia is a highly strategic region traditionally trapped between several major powers but generally dominated by Russia, whose primary objective remains protecting the buffer zones that extend all the way to Eastern Europe.

The Russian government’s power depends on the security services, provision of economic incentives to a small group of elites and the acquiescence of the Russian population.

Ongoing regional and ethnic tensions threaten the unity of Central Asia and thus, sometimes, to the security of Russia.

Eurasia is highly exposed to Russia economically, especially when it comes to currencies, remittances and labor. Nevertheless, as the Russian economy weakens, partly due to the exporters’ crisis, its financial troubles are contributing to Central Asia’s slow destabilization.

While Russia is the dominant force, the economic slowdown in China, which is a major benefactor of much of Eurasia, is a major risk for Central Asian economies.

Regional Assessment of Russia

Regional Assessment of Central Asia

Required Reads: Eurasia

From our Forecast...

Russia will continue to conduct covert and non-military operations to take control and maintain control of its buffers.

Eurasia in our Memos

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Latest Posts

Daily Memo: China’s African Swine Fever Outbreak, Iran’s Russia Connections

Chinese outbreak. African swine fever infections are surging in China. The outbreak began during the Lunar New Year in February, and by March, the...

Yemen’s Intractable Civil War

The civil war in Yemen began in 2014 with the Houthi rebels taking over the country’s north, including the capital, the international airport and...

Daily Memo: Russian Corporate Profits Tank, Protests in Georgia Resume

Russian economy. Profits at Russia’s medium and large firms fell by 45.4 percent in the second half of 2022 relative to a year ago,...

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