Eurasia

George Answers Your Questions: Azerbaijan: Very Small, Very Significant

Azerbaijan: Very Small, Very Significant Aug. 3, 2026 Question: If Azerbaijan is the soft underbelly of Russia, in what way could it give Putin a tummy...

Belarus’ Military Buildup Is About Survival

Recent moves by Belarus to strengthen and reorganize its military have raised concerns that Minsk and Moscow are preparing to open a second front...

Russia’s Road Back Runs Through Berlin

By Andrew Ryvkin Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the media has focused more on Russia’s negotiations with the United States than with the European...

Azerbaijan: Very Small, Very Significant

Azerbaijan is a small country in the South Caucasus, a region that was part of the Soviet Union until most of its constituent parts...

Caspian Sea: Where the Iran and Ukraine Wars Meet

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(click to enlarge) The Caspian Sea rarely makes global headlines, but it has abruptly become the intersection of the wars in Ukraine and Iran. Not...

The Risks of Conflict Expansion from the Gulf to the Caspian

The Strait of Hormuz is nearly 3,000 kilometers (2,000 miles) from the frontline in southeastern Ukraine, but the two wars – one pitting the...

China-Russia Naval Cooperation and Japan’s Response

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(click to enlarge) Recurring operations around Japan are improving China and Russia’s ability to coordinate pressure on the U.S.-led regional alliance system. Since 2021, China...

Choking the Grain Trade

The Russia-Ukraine war has taken a noticeably naval turn. Attacks have intensified in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. Ukrainian armed forces...

The Promise of Ukraine’s Military-Industrial Complex

By Andrew Ryvkin In 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, Kyiv had an outdated defense-industrial base that was unable to meet the demands of the conflict....

George Answers Your Questions: A Strange Article from Tass and The Conception and Birth of the United States

A Strange Article from Tass July 6, 2026 Question: The Russians have been fighting with one hand tied behind their backs for years, because they haven't...

Russia’s Size and Centralization Become Liabilities

This week, a drone threat was declared for the first time ever in the Russian regions of Novosibirsk and Omsk, according to the Russian...

A Strange Article From Tass

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We normally never publish articles written by others, but we must make an exception in this case. The BBC Monitoring service reported on an...

Russia’s Misreading of America First

By Andrew Ryvkin Moscow has pursued a multipolar world order to replace the era of U.S. dominance that has prevailed since the fall of the...

A Critical Moment for Russia

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The Ukrainian military has been attacking Russian energy infrastructure for some time now, so last week’s drone strikes against oil refineries and storage tanks,...

Russia’s Chechnya Problem

By Andrew Ryvkin For over a century, Chechnya has been Russia’s most volatile republic. Rumored to be terminally ill, its leader, Ramzan Kadyrov, who built...

Russia’s Limitations in the Caucasus

Parliamentary elections will be held in Armenia on June 7. The Civil Contract party, led by current Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who has been...

Latest Posts

Central Asia is a highly strategic region traditionally trapped between several major powers but generally dominated by Russia, whose primary objective remains protecting the buffer zones that extend all the way to Eastern Europe.

The Russian government’s power depends on the security services, provision of economic incentives to a small group of elites and the acquiescence of the Russian population.

Ongoing regional and ethnic tensions threaten the unity of Central Asia and thus, sometimes, to the security of Russia.

Eurasia is highly exposed to Russia economically, especially when it comes to currencies, remittances and labor. Nevertheless, as the Russian economy weakens, partly due to the exporters’ crisis, its financial troubles are contributing to Central Asia’s slow destabilization.

While Russia is the dominant force, the economic slowdown in China, which is a major benefactor of much of Eurasia, is a major risk for Central Asian economies.

Regional Assessment of Russia

Regional Assessment of Central Asia

Required Reads: Eurasia

From our Forecast...

Russia will continue to conduct covert and non-military operations to take control and maintain control of its buffers.

Eurasia in our Memos

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Latest Posts

George Answers Your Questions: The Broader Impact of a New Alliance in the Middle East

The Broader Impact of a New Alliance in the Middle East Aug. 10, 2026 Question: So how does this work with Israel? If they have a...

Diminished Expectations for 2026 Economic Growth

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(click to enlarge) The World Bank's January forecast, which had expected the global economy to maintain relatively strong growth momentum, has been revised downward. The...

Special Edition: How the “Islamic NATO” Shifts Global Geopolitics

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Is last week’s signing of a landmark mutual defense agreement between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan a further signal of global geopolitical realignment? On this special extended episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman and Middle East expert and GPF contributor Kamran Bokhari join host Christian Smith for a deep dive into the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement and how it shifts the balance of power across the Middle East and beyond. Also: GPF Chief Geoeconomist Antonia Colibasanu discusses this month’s Geoeconomic Lens, and the future of sanctions and the war in Ukraine.