Eurasia

Brief: More Russian Weapons Headed for Belarus

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Background: Belarus is a strategic ally of Russia and a critical part of its western buffer, bordering Poland and two of the Baltic states....

In Central Asia, a Timely Opportunity for Russia

In our 2021 annual forecast, we noted that this year, like many years before it, Russia would try to add to its strategic depth...

Brief: Russia Wants More From Kazakhstan

Background: Russia made progress last year shoring up its southern and western border areas, by placing peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh and siding with Belarus’ embattled...

The World in 2021

Introduction Our 2020 global forecast began as follows: Economic dysfunction will remain the main driver of the international system in 2020. Economic stress does not simply...

Brief: Redrawing Georgia

Background: Russia needs the Caucasus to be stable and under its influence to serve as a buffer between it and powerful states like Iran...

Brief: Ukraine and Russia’s War of Words

Background: Ukraine and Russia are still at odds over Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014. (A popular referendum later upheld the annexation.)...

Forecast Tracker: 2020 Year-End Review

(click to enlarge) Scale: Hit, Partial Hit, Inconclusive, Partial Miss, Miss Global Economic dysfunction will be the main driver of the international system in 2020. Economic stress...

The Intelligence Dilemma

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The United States claims to have identified a massive Russian intelligence operation meant to gather secrets from corporations and the government. The line from...

Brief: Russia Demonstrates Its Commitment to the Balkans

Background: The Balkans is a region where the interests of many powers – namely Russia, the United States, the European Union and Turkey –...

Russia Plays Both Sides in Germany

On Dec. 8, a delegation from the AfD, a far-right German opposition party whose interests in the country tend to align with Russia’s, arrived...

Central Asia is a highly strategic region traditionally trapped between several major powers but generally dominated by Russia, whose primary objective remains protecting the buffer zones that extend all the way to Eastern Europe.

The Russian government’s power depends on the security services, provision of economic incentives to a small group of elites and the acquiescence of the Russian population.

Ongoing regional and ethnic tensions threaten the unity of Central Asia and thus, sometimes, to the security of Russia.

Eurasia is highly exposed to Russia economically, especially when it comes to currencies, remittances and labor. Nevertheless, as the Russian economy weakens, partly due to the exporters’ crisis, its financial troubles are contributing to Central Asia’s slow destabilization.

While Russia is the dominant force, the economic slowdown in China, which is a major benefactor of much of Eurasia, is a major risk for Central Asian economies.

Regional Assessment of Russia

Regional Assessment of Central Asia

Required Reads: Eurasia

From our 2020 Forecast...

Russia has managed to maintain stability despite the massive downturn in oil prices. However, there are significant constraints on the standard of living and government services outside the major cities. The export crisis will strike Russia particularly sharply because its economy is largely driven by oil and gas exports. This will increase dissatisfaction in Russia, but not to a point threatening the regime.

Eurasia in our Memos

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Latest Posts

COVID-19’s Impact on Labor

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(click to enlarge) A key trend in 2021 is the rebalancing of the global economic and financial systems after the disruption caused by COVID-19. The...

Live Discussion: United States: Act I of the Cycle

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Daily Memo: Sanctions and Trade Deals

Happy anniversary to a trade deal. It's the one-year anniversary of the signing of the "phase one" trade deal between the U.S. and China....

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