Eurasia

Belarus’ Foreign Policy Returns to an Old Playbook

At the annual Eurasian Economic Forum hosted in Minsk last week, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said his country’s foreign policy would prioritize building a...

Strategic Options as US-Russia Talks Stall

U.S.-Russia talks over a settlement in Ukraine have largely stalled. On June 16, Moscow announced that Washington had unilaterally canceled the next round of...

Ukraine and Russia, Israel and Iran: Searching for the Significant

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The Ukrainian drone attack on Russia at the beginning of this month and the Israeli attack on Iran have some striking similarities. 1. Both attacks...

Russia’s Calculated Silence on the India-Pakistan Conflict

Last week, the special assistant to Pakistan’s prime minister arrived in Moscow to discuss his country’s recent military skirmish with India and appeal to...

The Evolution of the Global Defense Industry

The global defense industry is undergoing a profound transformation driven by rapid technological advancement and growing concern over supply chain resilience. The changes underway...

Report From Serbia

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I first visited Serbia in the early 1970s. At the time, I was genuinely unaware that I was in Serbia. I thought I was...

Report From Bucharest

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My wife and I arrived in Romania last Wednesday after a two-night stopover and time adjustment in Frankfurt. We stayed in Bucharest with Antonia...

Germany Acts

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Germany’s decision to deploy a permanent force of 5,000 soldiers to Lithuania is extremely significant because it signals the next phase of a new...

Russia’s Negotiating Strategy

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It has been about three months since U.S. President Donald Trump began the negotiation process with Russian President Vladimir Putin for peace in Ukraine....

Russia’s Rivers: A Viable Trade Alternative?

In a bit of performance art at Russia’s Victory Day parade on May 9, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a big show of sitting...

In Russia, a Late Night Call for Peace

In the early morning of May 11, when most Russians were fast asleep, President Vladimir Putin issued a long statement on a resolution to...

Victory Day and the Weaponization of Memory

I am currently in Prague to teach a course on geoeconomics as part of a master’s program in geopolitics at Charles University. While here,...

America’s New Threat Assessment

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(click to enlarge) The 2025 Annual Threat Assessment from the U.S. Intelligence Community presents a detailed overview of a rapidly evolving threat landscape defined by...

New Battlegrounds in Information Warfare

The concept of disinformation isn’t new; it’s been around as long as information has. The difference between then and now is that now there...

Russia’s Deteriorating Internal Security

On April 25, a lieutenant general in the Russian military was killed in Balashikha, a town located near Moscow. A few months earlier, the...

How Wars End

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Wars – which I will define broadly as matters of military conflict sustained partly by the nature of the soldiers fighting and partly by...

Latest Posts

Central Asia is a highly strategic region traditionally trapped between several major powers but generally dominated by Russia, whose primary objective remains protecting the buffer zones that extend all the way to Eastern Europe.

The Russian government’s power depends on the security services, provision of economic incentives to a small group of elites and the acquiescence of the Russian population.

Ongoing regional and ethnic tensions threaten the unity of Central Asia and thus, sometimes, to the security of Russia.

Eurasia is highly exposed to Russia economically, especially when it comes to currencies, remittances and labor. Nevertheless, as the Russian economy weakens, partly due to the exporters’ crisis, its financial troubles are contributing to Central Asia’s slow destabilization.

While Russia is the dominant force, the economic slowdown in China, which is a major benefactor of much of Eurasia, is a major risk for Central Asian economies.

Regional Assessment of Russia

Regional Assessment of Central Asia

From our Forecast...

Russia will continue to conduct covert and non-military operations to take control and maintain control of its buffers.

Eurasia in our Memos

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Latest Posts

In China, Xi’s Rule Slowly Unravels

Over the past week, Chinese President Xi Jinping intensified his sweeping crackdown on public officials, expelling Vice Adm. Li Hanjun, chief of staff of...

Daily Memo: US, Iran to Revive Talks

Diplomatic revival. U.S. and Iranian officials will hold their first talks since Israel's assault on Iran's nuclear facilities last month "in the next week...

The Nearing Crisis of Demographics

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There are moments when I am exhausted by crises that come and go, and remember the next real existential crisis of humanity. It puts...

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