HomeRegional DirectoryMiddle East and North Africa

Middle East and North Africa

Disruptions to Undersea Cables

Unconfirmed reports from Israeli media suggest that underwater data cables near Yemen in the Red Sea – the AAE-1, Seacom, Europe India Gateway and...

Turkey’s Meager Influence in the Middle East

Despite its significant size, stature and history, Turkey has been unable to shape the outcome of the major regional conflict that followed Hamas’ Oct....

Israel and Saudi Arabia’s Bumpy Road to Peace

Ever since Riyadh gave its tacit approval for the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain to establish diplomatic ties with Israel in 2020, Saudi Arabia...

Turkey’s Time to Decide on Russia

On Feb. 4, Turkey’s foreign minister said that Russian President Vladimir Putin would visit Turkey sometime in February to meet with President Recep Tayyip...

Israel-Hamas War Underscores Egypt’s Indecisiveness

Like many other states, Egypt was caught off guard by the Israel-Hamas war. The magnitude of Hamas’ attack on Oct. 7 left Egypt little...

A US-Iran War

The Biden administration has plainly stated its wish to avoid a direct conflict with Iran, but soon it may not have much choice. The...

The World in 2024

Editor's note: Below are the compiled links to our entire 2024 annual forecast. Please follow the links for quick navigation, or download the PDF...

U.S. and Iranian Intentions

Three U.S. servicemen were killed during a drone attack last night on a military base in Jordan, located near the Syrian border. President Joe...

Middle East Conflict Reshapes India-Iran Relations

The U.S.-Iran conflict in the Middle East may be a boon to India. The Houthi attacks, which have disrupted global shipping, allow New Delhi...

The Middle East as a Powder Keg

In response to the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to change the Middle East. An Israeli army spokesman...

The Future of an Escalating US-Iran Conflict

Iran’s efforts to challenge the United States in the Middle East are reaching an inflection point. After decades of reshaping the domestic political environments...

The Coming War Between Israel and Hezbollah

Ever since the inconclusive 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, a rematch – and clear Israeli victory – has seemed inevitable. That conflict is now at hand....

The Strategies of the Israel-Hamas War

It is difficult to understand the strategy of a country at war sitting outside the command center. However, when analyzed from the initiation of...

The Limits of Iran’s Geopolitical Expansion

After China and Russia, Iran is the biggest foreign policy challenge for the United States, one that has bedeviled successive administrations for nearly half...

What Red Sea Disruption Means for Global Supply Chains

The Red Sea is a vital waterway for commercial shipping that connects markets in Europe, Asia and Africa. In recent weeks, however, it has...

Yemen’s Houthis and Iran’s Encircling of Saudi Arabia

On Dec. 19, a day after the U.S. announced a multinational naval task force to protect commercial shipping in the southern Red Sea and...

Latest Posts

The meltdown of autocratic regimes currently underway in the Arab world has led to the growth of ungoverned spaces. The resulting vacuum is being dominated by armed Islamist non-state actors – in particular Salafist-jihadist militias.

The three non-Arab powers – Turkey, Iran and Israel – are trying to manage the regional commotion according to their national interests.

It was during the Cold War era that a deep ideological chasm in the Middle East began to coagulate. The struggle between those who adopted European secularism and those who crafted an ideology based on religious tradition had its roots in late 19th century Ottoman Empire. Roughly 100 years later, this struggle had polarized the region.

Read Regional Assessment

Read Assessment of Saudi Arabia

Read Assessment of Turkey

Required Reads: Middle East and North Africa

From our Forecast...

The Vienna nuclear talks will result in a settlement. The Israeli Air Force will not attack Iran’s nuclear sites.

Middle East and North Africa in our Memos

Continue to the category

More from the Middle East and North Africa

Continue to the category

Latest Posts

Daily Memo: China-Russia Talks, Iranian Naval Plans

Chinese mediation. China reaffirmed its commitment to facilitating peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine during a meeting in Moscow between Chinese special representative Li...

Against Russian Allies in Latin America, the US Makes Its Moves

Last week, Russia laid out a broad strategy and list of priorities for key partners in Latin America. The announcement was precipitated by two...

Employment Returns to Pre-Pandemic Levels

FREE
(click to enlarge) Global employment rates have returned to pre-pandemic levels despite 2023's macroeconomic downturns. Yet, multiple indicators reveal underlying fragility in the labor market....

Get Geopolitical Futures FREE newsletter

Understanding Our Geopolitical Model

Sign up now and receive our special report Understanding our Geopolitical Model

Get weekly analysis from New York Times bestselling author George Friedman and our global team of analysts, plus special offers.

Subscribe Now


The World in 2024

FREE with an annual subscription to Geopolitical Futures.

Subscribe Now