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Middle East and North Africa

Turkey Plays Defense Against Iran

Since it reemerged as a major player in the Middle East in the late 2000s, Turkey has consistently encountered the same obstacle to even...

The Gaza War: Where Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah Go From Here

Hamas’ attack on Israel last October defied logic. After decades of conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, a rational actor could have easily predicted...

Iranian Elections and the Future of the Regime

A new generation of Iranian leaders is emerging that is ideologically far more hardline than what the country has produced since the founding of...

Understanding the Israel-Hamas War

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Understanding why Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7 requires an understanding of Hamas’ fundamental goal: the creation of a Palestinian state. The group understood...

Disruptions to Undersea Cables

Unconfirmed reports from Israeli media suggest that underwater data cables near Yemen in the Red Sea – the AAE-1, Seacom, Europe India Gateway and...

Turkey’s Meager Influence in the Middle East

Despite its significant size, stature and history, Turkey has been unable to shape the outcome of the major regional conflict that followed Hamas’ Oct....

Israel and Saudi Arabia’s Bumpy Road to Peace

Ever since Riyadh gave its tacit approval for the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain to establish diplomatic ties with Israel in 2020, Saudi Arabia...

Turkey’s Time to Decide on Russia

On Feb. 4, Turkey’s foreign minister said that Russian President Vladimir Putin would visit Turkey sometime in February to meet with President Recep Tayyip...

Israel-Hamas War Underscores Egypt’s Indecisiveness

Like many other states, Egypt was caught off guard by the Israel-Hamas war. The magnitude of Hamas’ attack on Oct. 7 left Egypt little...

A US-Iran War

The Biden administration has plainly stated its wish to avoid a direct conflict with Iran, but soon it may not have much choice. The...

The World in 2024

Editor's note: Below are the compiled links to our entire 2024 annual forecast. Please follow the links for quick navigation, or download the PDF...

U.S. and Iranian Intentions

Three U.S. servicemen were killed during a drone attack last night on a military base in Jordan, located near the Syrian border. President Joe...

Middle East Conflict Reshapes India-Iran Relations

The U.S.-Iran conflict in the Middle East may be a boon to India. The Houthi attacks, which have disrupted global shipping, allow New Delhi...

The Middle East as a Powder Keg

In response to the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to change the Middle East. An Israeli army spokesman...

The Future of an Escalating US-Iran Conflict

Iran’s efforts to challenge the United States in the Middle East are reaching an inflection point. After decades of reshaping the domestic political environments...

The Coming War Between Israel and Hezbollah

Ever since the inconclusive 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, a rematch – and clear Israeli victory – has seemed inevitable. That conflict is now at hand....

Latest Posts

The meltdown of autocratic regimes currently underway in the Arab world has led to the growth of ungoverned spaces. The resulting vacuum is being dominated by armed Islamist non-state actors – in particular Salafist-jihadist militias.

The three non-Arab powers – Turkey, Iran and Israel – are trying to manage the regional commotion according to their national interests.

It was during the Cold War era that a deep ideological chasm in the Middle East began to coagulate. The struggle between those who adopted European secularism and those who crafted an ideology based on religious tradition had its roots in late 19th century Ottoman Empire. Roughly 100 years later, this struggle had polarized the region.

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Required Reads: Middle East and North Africa

From our Forecast...

The Vienna nuclear talks will result in a settlement. The Israeli Air Force will not attack Iran’s nuclear sites.

Middle East and North Africa in our Memos

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Latest Posts

Daily Memo: Niger Expels US Troops, EU Invests in Egypt

Ousted. Niger’s ruling military junta ordered U.S. troops to leave the country with immediate effect. The United States has roughly 1,000 troops stationed at...

No One Wants Responsibility for Haiti

Though Washington is preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, strained trade relations with China and a potential regional conflict in the Middle East, U.S....

A Closer Look at NATO Spending

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(click to enlarge) In a meeting with NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, Poland's president advocated that each NATO member increase defense spending to 3 percent of...

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