Europe

Europe Is Still Waiting for a Recovery Fund Breakthrough

Earlier this month, the European Commission released its midyear assessment of the state of European economies. The so-called summer interim report was a lot...

The Thucydides Trap and the Rise and Fall of Great Powers

Roughly 2,400 years ago, Thucydides, a Greek historian and author of “History of the Peloponnesian War,” expressed a view that resonates in strategic thinking to...

Will the Coronavirus Forge a Brave New World?

Of all the major geopolitical players on the planet, Mother Nature may be the toughest adversary. Nature has neither imperatives nor constraints to guide...

Putin’s New History of Europe and the Rehabilitation of Stalin

Russian President Vladimir Putin likes to argue that World War II, and much of the suffering wrought by it, was the responsibility not just...

Recession or Depression

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In March, we declared our 2020 forecast null and void. The COVID-19 pandemic had essentially rendered it irrelevant. The question we posed in March...

The US Walks a Fine Line in Eastern Europe

In early June, White House National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien signed a memorandum authorizing yet another drawdown of American troops, this time directing the...

Measuring the Economic Damage in Europe

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(click to enlarge) The economic damage caused by the coronavirus pandemic is such that it’s nearly impossible to accurately measure. Still, some numbers are starting...

D-Day and Stalin

Editor’s Note: The following analysis was published on the anniversary of D-Day in 2019. It has been lightly edited. Over 70 years after it was...

The Black Sea: The Key to Eurasian Stability?

Halford Mackinder, one of the founding fathers of geopolitics, said that if the Heartland was unstable, the world was unstable. And since the Heartland...

Mother Nature as a Geopolitical Force

History is biased, and not just because the victors tend to write it. The study of history is largely the study of humankind –...

The European Peninsula is facing two interlocking crises: first, the fragmentation in the European Union due to diverging national interests and, second, a shift in the relationship between the peninsula and the rest of Eurasia.

Germany is the most powerful country in the European Union and economically dependent on its exports to the bloc. Therefore, Germany must maintain a cohesive eurozone and European Union, in order to safeguard its exports and shape the direction of Europe’s economic policies.

Europe suffers from regional divides with drastic employment and economic discrepancies between the north and south. An east and west divide, dating back to the Soviet era, also influence countries’ different outlooks towards foreign interactions.

Russia and the United States continue to have competing interests in Central and Eastern Europe.

Read Regional Assessment

Read Assessment of Germany

Required Reads: Europe

From our 2020 Forecast...

The crisis in exports will strike the European Union in two ways. First, Germany, which earns almost 50 percent of its gross domestic product from exports and counts the United States as its largest single customer, will see its export value contract, which will affect its GDP on a 2-to-1 basis. This will intensify political instability.

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(click to enlarge) Given the growing geopolitical tensions in a number of regions around the world and the challenging economic conditions, 2020 never promised to...

Daily Memo: A Japan-Russia Peace Treaty, a New EU Budget

Japan and Russia talk peace. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Friday that Russia has presented Japan with a conceptual framework for a World...

Europe Is Still Waiting for a Recovery Fund Breakthrough

Earlier this month, the European Commission released its midyear assessment of the state of European economies. The so-called summer interim report was a lot...