Belgium’s Brexit Blues

As the December 2020 deadline for a negotiated trade deal approaches and the European Union and the United Kingdom fail to get on the...

Belarus’ Next Episode

Public demonstrations against Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko have intensified. Looked at casually, it seems unlikely that his presidency can survive. If the protesters are...

The Trouble With a Premature Vaccine

Hope is beginning to fade that the world will have a safe and effective coronavirus vaccine before the predicted “second wave” arrives that will...

Eternal Brexit

In 2016, the British government called for a referendum on whether the United Kingdom should remain a member of the European Union. The British...

In Belarus, Russia Bides Its Time

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Of Belarus, China and Watching a Perfect Game Pitched

There are moments in history when disparate global events combine to change the shape of the global system. People like me long for these...

Vaccine Nationalism Is an Exaggerated Threat

Nationalism is all the rage these days. Following decades of globalization, the pendulum has begun to swing back the other direction, triggering fears that...

Cyprus’ Indispensable Role in the Mediterranean

In 1956, Cyprus found itself at the center of a heated debate in the United Kingdom. Amid the growing push for independence on the...

The Presidential Elections in Belarus

On Aug. 9, Belarus will hold presidential elections at a time when the country has never faced so many threats from so many directions....

The EU Opens the Door to More China Trade

After 10 years of negotiation, the European Council earlier this week authorized the EU to sign a trade agreement with China. The deal will...

The European Peninsula is facing two interlocking crises: first, the fragmentation in the European Union due to diverging national interests and, second, a shift in the relationship between the peninsula and the rest of Eurasia.

Germany is the most powerful country in the European Union and economically dependent on its exports to the bloc. Therefore, Germany must maintain a cohesive eurozone and European Union, in order to safeguard its exports and shape the direction of Europe’s economic policies.

Europe suffers from regional divides with drastic employment and economic discrepancies between the north and south. An east and west divide, dating back to the Soviet era, also influence countries’ different outlooks towards foreign interactions.

Russia and the United States continue to have competing interests in Central and Eastern Europe.

Read Regional Assessment

Read Assessment of Germany

Required Reads: Europe

From our 2020 Forecast...

The crisis in exports will strike the European Union in two ways. First, Germany, which earns almost 50 percent of its gross domestic product from exports and counts the United States as its largest single customer, will see its export value contract, which will affect its GDP on a 2-to-1 basis. This will intensify political instability.

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