Europe

Brief: The UK and the USMCA

Background: The post-Brexit United Kingdom is still trying to define its new role in the international system. London has been trying to replace the...

Britain: Still Searching for Its Place in the World

In 1962, U.S. Secretary of State Dean Acheson said, “Great Britain has lost an empire but not yet found a role.” Acheson’s comment perfectly...

On Geoeconomics

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Last week, I spoke and moderated at several conferences in person – a rare thing since the pandemic began – whose topics ranged from...

Next Generation EU Begins

(click to enlarge) In 2020, the European Union was still recovering from the 2008 global financial crisis – and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis of...

Germany and Italy Battle for Control of the ECB

Of all the disagreements among the European Union member states – migration, foreign policy or even the so-called European Green Deal – economic policy...

In Europe, China Faces a Divided Front

Earlier this month, a diplomatic row erupted between China and an unlikely European nation. It began back in May, when Lithuania decided to leave...

Brief: Reactions to the EU Carbon Border Tax

Background: When the European Union drafted its most recent long-term budget (2021-27), it prioritized technological advancement and innovation over other areas such as cohesion....

Facing Reality: A New American Strategy

The United States has been at war for almost the entire 21st century, and it’s only 2021. In contrast, the United States was at...

Why France Is Everywhere These Days

France has been particularly active on the international stage lately. From the president’s visit to Armenia to his discussions with Japan, it seems there...

Germany Warns About ECB Policy

Background: Monetary policy is a highly divisive issue inside the 19-member eurozone, as different states need different policies and the compromise is often unsatisfactory....

Prospects for a ‘Mini-Schengen’ in the Balkans

In July, the leaders of Serbia, North Macedonia and Albania announced a new cooperation initiative for the region. Officially named the Open Balkans project,...

Brief: The Limits of Belarusian Reforms

Background: Following Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s questionable reelection and major protests last year, it was clear to Minsk that changes were necessary to preserve...

Brief: Franco-Italian Ties

Background: France has long competed with Germany for leadership in the European Union. Germany, of course, is too strong for France to compete with...

Brief: Russia Accuses Ukraine of Smuggling Fuel

Background: Relations between Russia and Ukraine have been severely strained for years. Russia wants to bring Ukraine, part of the buffer between it and...

The Road to 2040: A Summary of Our Forecast

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Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the next 25 years.

The Road to 2040

Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

Recent Articles

The European Peninsula is facing two interlocking crises: first, the fragmentation in the European Union due to diverging national interests and, second, a shift in the relationship between the peninsula and the rest of Eurasia.

Germany is the most powerful country in the European Union and economically dependent on its exports to the bloc. Therefore, Germany must maintain a cohesive eurozone and European Union, in order to safeguard its exports and shape the direction of Europe’s economic policies.

Europe suffers from regional divides with drastic employment and economic discrepancies between the north and south. An east and west divide, dating back to the Soviet era, also influence countries’ different outlooks towards foreign interactions.

Russia and the United States continue to have competing interests in Central and Eastern Europe.

Read Regional Assessment

Read Assessment of Germany

Required Reads: Europe

From our 2021 Forecast...

Countries in the EU will question Germany's leadership. Member states will look to Germany to meet their needs, but they will not be willing to make sacrifices in return.

Europe in our Memos

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Latest Posts

Europe’s Natural Gas Outlook

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(click to enlarge) This month, energy prices in Europe have soared due largely to record-high prices for natural gas. Though gas prices have been steadily...

Live Discussion: Latest Geopolitical Developments from AUKUS to China

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Daily Memo: Evergrande Keeps Mum on Bond Payment Deadline

Watching for signs. There are conflicting reports about whether embattled Chinese property giant Evergrande made a major dollar bond interest payment that was scheduled...

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