Europe

The Global Economy in 2020

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(click to enlarge) The COVID-19 pandemic hurt everyone, but it didn’t hurt equally. Social distancing measures, both elective and government mandated, devastated businesses, particularly those...

Brief: EU Recovery Worries

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Background: Last year, the European Union approved the 672.5 billion-euro ($815 billion) Recovery and Resilience Facility to help member states recover from the impact...

Reflections on Poland’s Alliances

Once again, on the Vistula River, we are worried about security guarantees in the wake of a U.S. election. Politics is a dynamic, not...

Brief: Unanswered Questions in Northern Ireland

Background: With Brexit, the United Kingdom is redefining its relationship with continental Europe. But Brexit also raised sensitive questions about the relationship between Northern...

Brief: First Shot in the Vaccine Wars

Background: EU member states are trailing their peers in terms of economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, and all sorts of issues with their...

Biden’s ‘Reversals’

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Just about every U.S. president promises a new era of U.S. foreign policy. George W. Bush promised to abolish nation building as a goal....

Crimean Water Wars

Water supplies in Crimea are critically low. Larger cities are tightly rationing their use, and stricter restrictions may soon be in the offing. Ecologically,...

Europe’s Exposure to Turkey’s Problems

For well over a year, Turkey has been projecting an image of itself that is out of sync with the reality at home. It...

Brief: More Russian Weapons Headed for Belarus

Background: Belarus is a strategic ally of Russia and a critical part of its western buffer, bordering Poland and two of the Baltic states....

The World in 2021

Introduction Our 2020 global forecast began as follows: Economic dysfunction will remain the main driver of the international system in 2020. Economic stress does not simply...

The European Peninsula is facing two interlocking crises: first, the fragmentation in the European Union due to diverging national interests and, second, a shift in the relationship between the peninsula and the rest of Eurasia.

Germany is the most powerful country in the European Union and economically dependent on its exports to the bloc. Therefore, Germany must maintain a cohesive eurozone and European Union, in order to safeguard its exports and shape the direction of Europe’s economic policies.

Europe suffers from regional divides with drastic employment and economic discrepancies between the north and south. An east and west divide, dating back to the Soviet era, also influence countries’ different outlooks towards foreign interactions.

Russia and the United States continue to have competing interests in Central and Eastern Europe.

Read Regional Assessment

Read Assessment of Germany

Required Reads: Europe

From our 2020 Forecast...

The crisis in exports will strike the European Union in two ways. First, Germany, which earns almost 50 percent of its gross domestic product from exports and counts the United States as its largest single customer, will see its export value contract, which will affect its GDP on a 2-to-1 basis. This will intensify political instability.

Europe in our Memos

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