Daily Memo: France Calls Out Azerbaijan, Russian Peacekeepers Go Home

French blowback. France recalled its ambassador to Azerbaijan for consultations after accusing Baku of taking “unilateral actions damaging to the relationship between our two...

The Hungarian Crisis

Viktor Orban governed Hungary from 1998 to 2002 and again from 2010 to the present. In that time, he has dominated Hungarian politics and,...

NATO Weighs Its Future Ukraine Support

NATO marked its 75th anniversary last week. The moment was naturally accompanied by talk about the future of the Ukraine war and the alliance’s...

Our Trip to the Western Pacific

My wife and I are returning from a six-week trip spanning New Zealand, Australia and Japan. The trip’s purposes were both personal and work-related....

Fallout From the Attack in Russia

Four days after the terrorist attack in Moscow, the most important question is how the Kremlin will respond – which itself will depend on...

European Defense and the Future of Ukraine

On Wednesday, European Union member states agreed to allocate an extra 5 billion euros ($5.4 billion) to the European Peace Facility by the end...

Europe’s Strategic Moment

It’s been two years since Russia invaded Ukraine, so it’s time to lay out the strategic situation as I see it. In February 2022,...

European Farmer Protests

(click to enlarge) Farmer protests have recently surged across Europe, shaking its agricultural heartlands. In Poland, a deep and broadening coalition of farmers is forming...

Daily Memo: Another Bank Blocks Russian Clients

Tightening the screws. China’s Chouzhou Commercial Bank is no longer conducting transactions with Russian and Belarusian clients, Russian business daily Vedomosti reported. Transactions using...

A Shift in Russian Wartime Policy?

Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti published a statement made by President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday that we regard as a significant shift in...

The World in 2024

Editor's note: Below are the compiled links to our entire 2024 annual forecast. Please follow the links for quick navigation, or download the PDF...

Global Forecast for the Next Year

This is not a detailed forecast of the fate of every country for 2024. Rather, it is an attempt to identify the main trends...

2024 Annual Forecast: Europe

Strikes and demonstrations are nothing new for Europe, but two factors distinguish the latest bout: its transnational nature and its concentration in specific economic...

AUKUS in 2024

The trilateral security partnership comprising the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia – known simply as AUKUS – is among the most interesting...

Europe Comes to Boil: the Balkans, Hungary and Russia

A few months ago, when Gaza joined Ukraine as a theater of intense war, I wrote about another potential conflict emerging in the Balkans....

Ukraine in 2024

The war in Gaza, an election year in the U.S., the continued disruption of supply chains and oil markets – whatever the reason, there...

Latest Posts

The European Peninsula is facing two interlocking crises: first, the fragmentation in the European Union due to diverging national interests and, second, a shift in the relationship between the peninsula and the rest of Eurasia.

Germany is the most powerful country in the European Union and economically dependent on its exports to the bloc. Therefore, Germany must maintain a cohesive eurozone and European Union, in order to safeguard its exports and shape the direction of Europe’s economic policies.

Europe suffers from regional divides with drastic employment and economic discrepancies between the north and south. An east and west divide, dating back to the Soviet era, also influence countries’ different outlooks towards foreign interactions.

Russia and the United States continue to have competing interests in Central and Eastern Europe.

Read Regional Assessment

Read Assessment of Germany

Required Reads: Europe

From our Forecast...

Inherent economic divisions will be aggravated by supply chain issues. Europe with Germany at its center will change into a Europe with no clear center.

Europe in our Memos

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Latest Posts

US Scrutiny on Foreign Ships

(click to enlarge) Each year, the U.S. Coast Guard issues a report on port state control, the inspection of foreign ships in national ports. The...

Daily Memo: Strike on Iran, Security Concerns in Russia

Retaliation. Israel launched an airstrike on Iran early Friday morning in response to Iran’s attack on Israeli targets on April 14. An Iranian air...

In Myanmar, China Considers a New Strategy

In mid-April, China’s People’s Liberation Army conducted live-fire drills along its southern border – the second of its kind this month – amid deteriorating...

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