A New Phase in the Global Economic War

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, it didn’t just start a ground war in Europe – it opened up what would become a worldwide...

America, War and the Atlantic

On Aug. 1, 1914, Germany declared war on Russia. Two days later, Germany declared war on France. The following day, Britain declared war on...

Destabilizing Major Powers

The Geopolitical Futures model argues that the northern tier of entities are the center of power in the global system and define how the...

The Flank of War

The arena for the Russian-Ukrainian war is obviously Ukraine. But as in most wars, the main arena does not define the war as a...

Strange Events and the Future of the Russo-Ukrainian War

Russia and Ukraine have signed an agreement to permit the shipping of grain through the Black Sea to world markets. A few hours after...

On Italy’s Political Crisis

While lecturing at a European summer school in Lombardy, Italy, about reconstructing Europe after crisis, I visited Premana. Near Lake Como, nestled in the...

Russia Signals a Long War

Beyond the grinding war in Ukraine, Russia’s diplomatic moves suggest it envisions no negotiated settlement in the near future. Since the war’s first days,...

The Caspian Region’s Challenge to Russian Energy Dominance

Since Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine began in February, European countries have been looking for alternative energy sources to reduce their dependence on Russian...

Back to the Future With NATO

Much has been said about how the Russian war in Ukraine has changed NATO. Its membership certainly is set to grow as Sweden and...

Russian Military Doctrine

The city of Lysychansk has fallen to Russia, giving it full control of Ukraine’s breakaway Luhansk region and putting it in position to gain...

G-7 versus BRICS

The first half of 2022 is ending with a string of major summits. Meetings of national leaders aren’t usually fateful, but the G-7 summit...

Warsaw to Budapest

The trip from Warsaw to Budapest is a trip between two realities. Warsaw is not quite on a war footing but exudes a desire...

A New Phase in the Ukraine War

Wars tend to unfold in phases, though it’s never clear how many phases there will be when the war breaks out, and less clear...

The Evolution of Great Powers

The evolution of military power is one of the most important if underrated geopolitical changes happening in the world today. Throughout the 20th century,...

On the Road Again

Tomorrow, my wife, Meredith, and I leave for Poland and Hungary. I have been invited to both countries so I am not crashing the...

Struggling to Find the Exit From War

French President Emmanuel Macron said last week that an off-ramp must be found for Russian President Vladimir Putin in Ukraine. This is not a...

Latest Posts

The European Peninsula is facing two interlocking crises: first, the fragmentation in the European Union due to diverging national interests and, second, a shift in the relationship between the peninsula and the rest of Eurasia.

Germany is the most powerful country in the European Union and economically dependent on its exports to the bloc. Therefore, Germany must maintain a cohesive eurozone and European Union, in order to safeguard its exports and shape the direction of Europe’s economic policies.

Europe suffers from regional divides with drastic employment and economic discrepancies between the north and south. An east and west divide, dating back to the Soviet era, also influence countries’ different outlooks towards foreign interactions.

Russia and the United States continue to have competing interests in Central and Eastern Europe.

Read Regional Assessment

Read Assessment of Germany

Required Reads: Europe

From our 2022 Forecast...

Inherent economic divisions will be aggravated by supply chain issues. Europe with Germany at its center will change into a Europe with no clear center.

Europe in our Memos

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Latest Posts

Daily Memo: China’s Taiwan White Paper, Turkey Seeking Funds

Zero tolerance. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office issued a white paper in which it vowed zero tolerance for separatism and reaffirmed that it would seize...

A New Phase in the Global Economic War

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, it didn’t just start a ground war in Europe – it opened up what would become a worldwide...

Daily Memo: Latest Ukraine Aid Package, New START on Pause

Resupply. The United States announced a $1 billion military aid package for Ukraine that includes ammunition for rocket artillery and missile systems as well...

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