Poland Won’t Start World War III

For the world, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ushered in a new era. For Poland, it supercharged long-standing fears about Russian aggression. While Western European...

Reactions to Finland’s NATO Membership

On May 15, Finland officially announced that it would apply to join NATO. The debate over whether it would do so had taken place...

How the Ukraine War May End

Russia has been waging war in Ukraine for a little over two months now. That’s not an especially long time. The Korean War lasted...

The Beginning of a New Era

A week ago, I wrote a piece on the stages of history, pointing out systemic shifts that have taken place for more than 200...

Hungary and Europe’s Energy Puzzle

On April 27, Russia announced that Gazprom stopped sending gas to Bulgaria and Poland after they missed the deadlines Russia set for paying in...

The Ukraine War, Redefined

The war in Ukraine began under a faulty assumption shared by many, including the United States, that if Russia invaded, it would defeat Ukraine,...

Can Africa Replace Russian Energy in Europe?

Unsurprisingly, the economic war against Russia has created tensions in European energy markets, which are scrambling to find alternate sources from what is still...

The World and a Small War

No war is small when you are living in it, but the world is large, and large wars are rare. At the same time,...

Russia and the First Economic World War

As momentous as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is, the most strategically important event in recent weeks was the global economic war between Russia and...

How the Ukraine War Will Likely End

As we consider how the war in Ukraine will end, we must first understand how it began. Russia invaded for geostrategic reasons – having...

The Role of Nuclear Power in the Ukraine War

Russia’s ultimate goal in invading Ukraine is to bring as much of the country as possible under Moscow’s influence, or, absent that, to pry...

Poland: Germany’s Indispensable Partner

More than a month into the war in Ukraine, the conflict is unsurprisingly putting mounting pressure on Europe. Most obviously, pre-war supply chain issues...

The Emerging Order

I am writing this from Dubai, on a trip I will describe on my return to the United States. A summit was held in...

Ukraine and the Long War

For as often as it happens, nations typically don’t elect to enter wars if they know they will be long, drawn-out, uncertain and expensive...

On the War in Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova Tread Carefully

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine spreads westward toward the strategic port city of Odessa, concerns are growing that Moscow will soon turn its...

How the Ukrainian Battlefield Redefines the World

The war in Ukraine is a humanitarian tragedy to be sure, but that’s not why it has commanded the world’s attention. After all, there...

Latest Posts

The European Peninsula is facing two interlocking crises: first, the fragmentation in the European Union due to diverging national interests and, second, a shift in the relationship between the peninsula and the rest of Eurasia.

Germany is the most powerful country in the European Union and economically dependent on its exports to the bloc. Therefore, Germany must maintain a cohesive eurozone and European Union, in order to safeguard its exports and shape the direction of Europe’s economic policies.

Europe suffers from regional divides with drastic employment and economic discrepancies between the north and south. An east and west divide, dating back to the Soviet era, also influence countries’ different outlooks towards foreign interactions.

Russia and the United States continue to have competing interests in Central and Eastern Europe.

Read Regional Assessment

Read Assessment of Germany

Required Reads: Europe

From our 2022 Forecast...

Inherent economic divisions will be aggravated by supply chain issues. Europe with Germany at its center will change into a Europe with no clear center.

Europe in our Memos

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Latest Posts

Daily Memo: Turkish Demands, Ruble Payments

Possible opening. According to a Bloomberg report, Turkey is making several demands before it will accept NATO membership for Sweden and Finland, both of...

Poland Won’t Start World War III

For the world, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ushered in a new era. For Poland, it supercharged long-standing fears about Russian aggression. While Western European...

Daily Memo: EU Sanctions Get Nowhere, NATO Enlargement Gets Closer

No oil ban in sight. The EU’s foreign affairs chief said it could be a couple of weeks, if not longer, before the bloc...

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