The World Ocean Versus the Continent

For centuries, the power that controls the seas – the “World Ocean” – has successfully stymied continental rivals and dictated the rules of world trade. The...

Russia’s Move

Russia is not a trustful country – for good reason. Germany invaded it twice in the 20th century, France invaded it once in the...

Is Russia Planning Another Assault in Ukraine?

The war in eastern Ukraine began more than seven years ago. The conflict has grown more complicated each year as rumors swirl that both...

Fertilizers and Food Insecurity

Next week is Thanksgiving, a U.S. holiday that celebrates, and is celebrated with, food. This year, however, Americans are reckoning with rising food prices....

The Fate of Northern Ireland

Tensions are rising again in Northern Ireland. Over the past week, pro-British gangs twice hijacked and torched buses in the Belfast area, and protesters...

The Geopolitics of Crimea

Cooperation between Ukraine and Turkey is intensifying. Just a few days ago, the Ukrainian military used Turkish-made drones to strike fighters in Donbass, a...

Forecasting Time

Around November each year, we at GPF begin our forecasting process for the coming year. In a real sense, we are always forecasting, as...

Are France and Italy a Foil to Germany?

France and Italy plan to sign the Quirinal Treaty, an agreement meant to improve bilateral relations generally and economic coordination and industrial ties specifically,...

What’s Driving the Spike in Energy Prices?

Inflation has been a big story around the world for much of 2021. But the spike in prices for consumer goods should have been...

Explanations for the Labor Shortage

The current breakdown of the global supply chain threatens to change the future of the world. If this worsens, the fabric of the global...

Balkan Tensions Flare Again

On Sept. 29, reports emerged that the European Union will no longer guarantee future membership of the six Balkan countries promised a place in...

Germany, Merkel and the Danger of Self-Confidence

Germany held an election to replace Angela Merkel, who led the German government for 16 years – through much of the implementation of the...

Brief: Serbia’s Show of Force to Kosovo

Background: Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia in 2008, less than 10 years after a NATO-led peacekeeping operation began there. Serbia, however, has yet...

Brief: The UK and the USMCA

Background: The post-Brexit United Kingdom is still trying to define its new role in the international system. London has been trying to replace the...

Britain: Still Searching for Its Place in the World

In 1962, U.S. Secretary of State Dean Acheson said, “Great Britain has lost an empire but not yet found a role.” Acheson’s comment perfectly...

On Geoeconomics

Last week, I spoke and moderated at several conferences in person – a rare thing since the pandemic began – whose topics ranged from...

Recent Articles

The European Peninsula is facing two interlocking crises: first, the fragmentation in the European Union due to diverging national interests and, second, a shift in the relationship between the peninsula and the rest of Eurasia.

Germany is the most powerful country in the European Union and economically dependent on its exports to the bloc. Therefore, Germany must maintain a cohesive eurozone and European Union, in order to safeguard its exports and shape the direction of Europe’s economic policies.

Europe suffers from regional divides with drastic employment and economic discrepancies between the north and south. An east and west divide, dating back to the Soviet era, also influence countries’ different outlooks towards foreign interactions.

Russia and the United States continue to have competing interests in Central and Eastern Europe.

Read Regional Assessment

Read Assessment of Germany

Required Reads: Europe

From our 2021 Forecast...

Countries in the EU will question Germany's leadership. Member states will look to Germany to meet their needs, but they will not be willing to make sacrifices in return.

Europe in our Memos

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Latest Posts

Intelligence and Love

In the Bible, Matthew 5:44 enjoins you to love your enemies. The Jewish Passover Seder begins with the words, “Remember Laban the Syrian who...

Daily Memo: Turkish Protests, EU Sanctions on China

Freefall. Protests broke out in several cities in Turkey over the collapse of the Turkish lira. On Tuesday, the lira fell to more than...

The World Ocean Versus the Continent

For centuries, the power that controls the seas – the “World Ocean” – has successfully stymied continental rivals and dictated the rules of world trade. The...

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