Brief: The Limits of Belarusian Reforms

Background: Following Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s questionable reelection and major protests last year, it was clear to Minsk that changes were necessary to preserve...

Brief: Franco-Italian Ties

Background: France has long competed with Germany for leadership in the European Union. Germany, of course, is too strong for France to compete with...

Brief: Russia Accuses Ukraine of Smuggling Fuel

Background: Relations between Russia and Ukraine have been severely strained for years. Russia wants to bring Ukraine, part of the buffer between it and...

The Road to 2040: A Summary of Our Forecast


Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the next 25 years.

The Road to 2040

Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

Brief: US Sides With Southern Europe on EU Spending Rules

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic devastated European economies, but it also created opportunities for the bloc to reform its fiscal rules. The existing framework, which...

Biden and Merkel to Meet

U.S. President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Angela Merkel are scheduled to meet Thursday in Washington, where they are expected to discuss issues such...

Brief: Belarusian Regime Critic Reappears on Twitter

Background: Belarus, an important buffer between Russia and NATO, has recently come under sanctions pressure from the West due to Minsk’s human rights violations as...

Scotland’s Complicated Quest for Independence

This week, the conservative Sunday Times newspaper published the results of a poll showing that support for Scottish independence has dropped to its lowest...

Daily Memo: Europe Shoots Down Summit With Russia

EU goings-on. On Thursday, the EU rejected a proposal submitted by France and Germany for a summit with Russia. Poland and the Baltics states...

Brief: S-400s to Belarus?

Background: Belarus is a key Russian ally in a vital position that insulates Moscow from Western threats such as NATO. It’s why Moscow constantly...

Brief: Russians Arrested in Chad

Background: Outside powers, particularly France and Russia, are jockeying for influence in Central and West Africa. Paris has a leg up in the region,...

Brief: Ukraine Wants to Buy an Iron Dome Battery

Background: Israel and Russia have developed a pragmatic and functional relationship on security as a result of the war in Syria. Russia’s presence in...

What Does It Mean to Rejoin Europe?

U.S. President Joe Biden’s trip to Europe has thus far pivoted around the single issue on which almost the entire world agrees: Biden is...

How the Competition Against China Could Improve NATO

Last week, U.S. President Joe Biden started a European tour in the United Kingdom, including a stopover at the G-7 summit. He met with...

Brief: Russia Edging Out France in Africa

Background: France is highly influential in its former colonies in West and Central Africa. It regularly participates in defense and security operations in these...

Recent Articles

The European Peninsula is facing two interlocking crises: first, the fragmentation in the European Union due to diverging national interests and, second, a shift in the relationship between the peninsula and the rest of Eurasia.

Germany is the most powerful country in the European Union and economically dependent on its exports to the bloc. Therefore, Germany must maintain a cohesive eurozone and European Union, in order to safeguard its exports and shape the direction of Europe’s economic policies.

Europe suffers from regional divides with drastic employment and economic discrepancies between the north and south. An east and west divide, dating back to the Soviet era, also influence countries’ different outlooks towards foreign interactions.

Russia and the United States continue to have competing interests in Central and Eastern Europe.

Read Regional Assessment

Read Assessment of Germany

Required Reads: Europe

From our 2021 Forecast...

Countries in the EU will question Germany's leadership. Member states will look to Germany to meet their needs, but they will not be willing to make sacrifices in return.

Europe in our Memos

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Latest Posts

The Volatile Global Food Supply

(click to enlarge) The pandemic has aggravated an already alarming situation regarding the cost and accessibility of food worldwide, as the director general of the...

Daily Memo: The US and Philippines Reportedly Reach Key Deal

Agreement reached. The U.S. and the Philippines may have finally put to rest concerns over one of the biggest threats to their Mutual Defense...

COVID and Cars

We have moved into the true second phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Previous phases were merely passing bubbles. This one appears real. Until now,...

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