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Reality Check

In North Korea, the US Advertises Its Intentions

May 23, 2017Ā There are signs that military action on the Korean Peninsula is increasingly likely.

Guarding the Guards at the CIA

May 22, 2017Ā Trusting an agency to tell the lies it must is a tough enough sell in a democracy.

A Weakening State in Azerbaijan

May 19, 2017Ā The country’s economic problems make it increasingly vulnerable to outside influences.

The Downfall of Chechnya

May 18, 2017Ā Kadyrov’s plan to stay in power whileĀ Russia’s backing is unreliable could accelerate his government’s demise.

The Latest Trump Crisis

May 17, 2017Ā Washington is running as the Founders intended. In the short term, that’s bad for the country.

The Future of the Venezuelan Crisis

May 16, 2017 The government’s options for surviving this year are dwindling.

Cyberattacks: Breaking Into a Broken System

May 15, 2017Ā A system whose security depends on an absence of carelessness is a system designed to fail.

The Cost of Fixing Russia’s Economy

May 12, 2017 Putin must choose between trying to save the economy and saving himself.

Tackling a Change in US Foreign Policy Head On

May 11, 2017Ā A departure in Middle East policy may compel us to adjust our forecast.

Why the US Cares About Somalia

May 10, 2017Ā The country is a test case for Washington’s balance-of-power strategy.

The Best-Laid Plans of Saudi Arabia and Russia

May 9, 2017 Gone are the days when Riyadh could dictate oil prices by itself.

Warren Buffett and Geopolitical Forecasting

May 8, 2017Ā Buffett’s approach to investing shares similarities with our forecasting model.

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