Iran Conflict

The U.S. and Israel launched air strikes against Iran on February 28th targeting leadership and military assets. The question is no longer whether force will be used but whether it can be used without opening the door to a conflict that would be difficult to contain. This is the paradox of bargaining with force: It is used to avert war but also brings war closer.

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War and the Principles of the Negotiation Process

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Analysis George Friedman -
All wars end. Sometimes, the end is reached when one side achieves its goals, which can range from a limited victory to the conquest...
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George Answers Your Questions: The Crisis of NATO, and China and the Iran Negotiations

Analysis George Friedman -
The Crisis of NATO April 8, 2026 Question: For decades NATO has maintained that it is a defensive alliance, and this has been a central argument...
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Lebanon’s Role in Turkey’s Vision for the Eastern Mediterranean

Analysis Hilal Khashan -
In recent years, Turkey has shown considerable interest in Lebanon, a country it sees as critical to the region’s economic and security future. President...
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The Iran War and the Rewiring of West Asia

Analysis Kamran Bokhari -
Though far from over, the war in Iran appears to be decelerating, if not yet achieving a decisive resolution. The Islamic Republic has survived,...
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Special Collection on the Middle East

This complete work consists of several dozen essays spread out over 8 parts tackling the region’s conflicts and historical evolution, relating them to contemporary issues. Divided into distinct regions and critical issues, the Special Collection of the Middle East is your source to better understand this volatile region and to be prepared for what comes next.

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Recent Analysis: Iran

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Daily Memo: Houthi Attacks on Saudi Arabia Alarm Pakistan

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Alliance commitments. Further Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia would cross a “red line” and could force Pakistan to come to the Saudis’ aid, unnamed...
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Why the US and Iran Are Both on the Clock

Analysis Andrew Davidson -
Over the past few days, U.S. forces said they struck more than 300 Iranian targets, including missile and drone systems, coastal surveillance, naval targets...
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Daily Memo: US-Iran Conflict Simmers, A Controversial Firing in Ukraine

Americas Geopolitical Futures -
U.S.-Iran latest. U.S. military strikes against Iran continued overnight, hitting not only coastal targets but also areas closer to Tehran and in the north....
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Daily Memo: US and Iran Continue Strikes, Poland to Host Joint Exercises

Americas Geopolitical Futures -
Trading blows. U.S. Central Command is conducting more strikes intended to degrade Iran’s ability to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz, according to...
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As Iran Declines, Turkey Advances

Analysis Kamran Bokhari -
For all the attention paid to the conflict in Iran, the broader changes in the Middle East have gone largely ignored, particularly with regard...
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Daily Memo: Maritime Developments in the Middle East and Europe

Americas Geopolitical Futures -
New route. The UAE is considering building a new port to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Dubai-based port operator DP World is reportedly in...
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Daily Memo: India-New Zealand Ties, Turkish Mediation

Americas Geopolitical Futures -
India in the South Pacific. India and New Zealand upgraded their relationship to a strategic partnership, signing 18 agreements covering defense, security, investment and...
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Daily Memo: Israeli Anxieties About Turkey

Americas Geopolitical Futures -
Anxious about Turkey. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told U.S. President Donald Trump in a phone call that he was concerned by recent comments...
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Daily Memo: US-Iran Tensions, Lavrov in Niger

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Looking ahead. The United States is preparing for a multi-day or even multi-week exchange of fire with Iran in response to Tehran’s attacks on...
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Daily Memo: US and Iran Trade Strikes

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Renewed fighting. The United States launched airstrikes against Iran in response to Iranian attacks on three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S....
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Daily Memo: Australia-Fiji Defense Deal, US-Russia Negotiations

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Competition for the South Pacific. Australia and Fiji signed a mutual defense agreement during Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s visit to Fiji’s capital, Suva....
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Daily Memo: USMCA’s Fate, US Urges Iran to Think Strategically

Americas Geopolitical Futures -
No extension. The U.S., Canada and Mexico will continue negotiating new terms of their trilateral trade agreement after Washington on July 1 opted not...
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Latest Posts

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Audio & Video

Who’s Holding the Cards? George Friedman on the Iran War Stalemate

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Video Geopolitical Futures -
A ceasefire is in place, but negotiations are once again breaking down over the conflict in Iran. Are we any closer to a long-term solution? On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss the stalled negotiations, the impacts of the US blockade on Iranian ports, and why this new strategy could be more about China than Iran for Donald Trump.
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Artemis and the Space Warfare Frontier

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Video Geopolitical Futures -
The return of humans to space with the Artemis II's orbit around the moon has captured the hearts and minds of millions around the world. While exploratory space travel enthralls the public, the geopolitics of space and its implications for war are something much less understood. On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss satellites, potential space warfare tactics, the strategic value of the moon, and why we went there in the first place.
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