Iran Conflict

The U.S. and Israel launched air strikes against Iran on February 28th targeting leadership and military assets. The question is no longer whether force will be used but whether it can be used without opening the door to a conflict that would be difficult to contain. This is the paradox of bargaining with force: It is used to avert war but also brings war closer.

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War and the Principles of the Negotiation Process

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Analysis George Friedman -
All wars end. Sometimes, the end is reached when one side achieves its goals, which can range from a limited victory to the conquest...
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George Answers Your Questions: The Crisis of NATO, and China and the Iran Negotiations

Analysis George Friedman -
The Crisis of NATO April 8, 2026 Question: For decades NATO has maintained that it is a defensive alliance, and this has been a central argument...
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Lebanon’s Role in Turkey’s Vision for the Eastern Mediterranean

Analysis Hilal Khashan -
In recent years, Turkey has shown considerable interest in Lebanon, a country it sees as critical to the region’s economic and security future. President...
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The Iran War and the Rewiring of West Asia

Analysis Kamran Bokhari -
Though far from over, the war in Iran appears to be decelerating, if not yet achieving a decisive resolution. The Islamic Republic has survived,...
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Special Collection on the Middle East

This complete work consists of several dozen essays spread out over 8 parts tackling the region’s conflicts and historical evolution, relating them to contemporary issues. Divided into distinct regions and critical issues, the Special Collection of the Middle East is your source to better understand this volatile region and to be prepared for what comes next.

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Recent Analysis: Iran

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Daily Memo: Ukraine Doubles Down on Medium-Range Strikes, Pleads for Missile Defenses

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Logistical disruption. Ukraine has allocated an additional $114 million for the purchase of medium-range strike capabilities and plans to scale up medium-range strikes targeting...
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Daily Memo: Developments in the Caucasus and the Middle East

Americas Geopolitical Futures -
Russia and the EAEU. Russian President Vladimir Putin will be in Kazakhstan from May 27-29 to attend a leaders' summit of the Eurasian Economic...
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The Gulf Cooperation Council’s Security Dilemma

Analysis Hilal Khashan -
In 1981, six Arab countries bordering the Persian Gulf established the Gulf Cooperation Council to counter the threat posed by Iran and Iraq, their...
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Daily Memo: Pakistan and Iran Seek China’s Help in Peace Talks With US

Americas Geopolitical Futures -
Appeals to China. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir traveled to Beijing and met with Chinese President Xi...
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A Critical Point in the Iran War

Analysis George Friedman -
After three months, the war in Iran has reached a critical point. The conflict itself has become frozen in a way. The Islamic Revolutionary...
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Daily Memo: Arms for Taiwan, Troops for Poland

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
On pause. The U.S. has suspended $14 billion in arms sales to Taiwan to ensure sufficient military supplies for any future action in Iran,...
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The Diffusion of Technology Is Changing Warfare

Analysis Andrew Davidson -
For decades, modern force projection depended on the assumption that rear areas could be secured against most forms of disruption. As a result, forces...
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Daily Memo: US Support for Europe, Chinese Purchases of American Goods

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Shifting responsibility. The U.S. will inform NATO allies this week that it plans to reduce the number of U.S. forces available in case of...
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Daily Memo: Washington’s Proposal to Iran

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Iran update. The United States has outlined five conditions for ending the war in Iran, Iranian news agency Fars reported. They include the U.S....
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Daily Memo: Talks in Beijing, Middle East Pact

Americas Geopolitical Futures -
Trump and Xi. U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping discussed trade and the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran at talks in...
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Prospects for a New Middle East Order

Analysis Hilal Khashan -
After the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime in 2003, a new Middle East order began emerging, defined by a precarious balance among Iran, Turkey,...
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Daily Memo: Xi’s Opening Remarks, Critical Energy Situation in Cuba

Americas Geopolitical Futures -
Xi’s opening remarks. In opening statements marking the start of U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to China, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that Beijing...
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Audio & Video

Who’s Holding the Cards? George Friedman on the Iran War Stalemate

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Video Geopolitical Futures -
A ceasefire is in place, but negotiations are once again breaking down over the conflict in Iran. Are we any closer to a long-term solution? On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss the stalled negotiations, the impacts of the US blockade on Iranian ports, and why this new strategy could be more about China than Iran for Donald Trump.
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Artemis and the Space Warfare Frontier

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Video Geopolitical Futures -
The return of humans to space with the Artemis II's orbit around the moon has captured the hearts and minds of millions around the world. While exploratory space travel enthralls the public, the geopolitics of space and its implications for war are something much less understood. On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss satellites, potential space warfare tactics, the strategic value of the moon, and why we went there in the first place.
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