Iran Conflict

The U.S. and Israel launched air strikes against Iran on February 28th targeting leadership and military assets. The question is no longer whether force will be used but whether it can be used without opening the door to a conflict that would be difficult to contain. This is the paradox of bargaining with force: It is used to avert war but also brings war closer.

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War and the Principles of the Negotiation Process

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Analysis George Friedman -
All wars end. Sometimes, the end is reached when one side achieves its goals, which can range from a limited victory to the conquest...
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George Answers Your Questions: The Crisis of NATO, and China and the Iran Negotiations

Analysis George Friedman -
The Crisis of NATO April 8, 2026 Question: For decades NATO has maintained that it is a defensive alliance, and this has been a central argument...
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Lebanon’s Role in Turkey’s Vision for the Eastern Mediterranean

Analysis Hilal Khashan -
In recent years, Turkey has shown considerable interest in Lebanon, a country it sees as critical to the region’s economic and security future. President...
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The Iran War and the Rewiring of West Asia

Analysis Kamran Bokhari -
Though far from over, the war in Iran appears to be decelerating, if not yet achieving a decisive resolution. The Islamic Republic has survived,...
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Special Collection on the Middle East

This complete work consists of several dozen essays spread out over 8 parts tackling the region’s conflicts and historical evolution, relating them to contemporary issues. Divided into distinct regions and critical issues, the Special Collection of the Middle East is your source to better understand this volatile region and to be prepared for what comes next.

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Recent Analysis: Iran

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Daily Memo: Rubio-Lavrov Call, Taiwan-Ukraine Ties

Americas Geopolitical Futures -
Growing contacts. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke by phone with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The call, their first in six months,...
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Daily Memo: Escalation in the Middle East

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Hormuz attack. The United States destroyed six Iranian small boats after Iranian forces fired missiles and drones at U.S. Navy vessels that were protecting...
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America’s Simultaneous Management of China, Russia and Iran

Analysis Kamran Bokhari -
That the United States is engaged in high-stakes negotiations with China, Russia and Iran – all at the same time – is a rare...
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Daily Memo: European Leaders Gather in Yerevan

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Partners abroad. European leaders are gathering on Monday for a summit of the European Political Community, a forum created in 2022 at the initiative...
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George Answers Your Questions: The Iran War and How It Ends

Analysis George Friedman -
The Iran War and How It Might End April 27, 2026 Question: The IRGC is dependent on money from oil sales and supplies from China. If...
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Daily Memo: Understandings and Defenses

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Toward an economic understanding. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on April 30. He called on both...
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What Kind of Regime Will Emerge From the Iran War?

Analysis Kamran Bokhari -
The biggest question raised by the war in Iran is not how the conflict ends but what kind of regime ultimately emerges in Tehran....
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Daily Memo: Europe’s Latest Defense Initiative

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Naval project. Ten European countries have signed a statement of intent on establishing the terms for the Northern Navies Initiative, the head of Britain’s...
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Daily Memo: RIMPAC Preview, Israeli Pessimism

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Major Pacific exercise. A record number of countries, 31, will participate in this year’s U.S.-led Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) naval exercise. The five-week...
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Daily Memo: Iraq Ends Its Political Stalemate, SCO Summit Begins

Americas Geopolitical Futures -
New PM-designate. Iraq’s top political bloc named businessman Ali al-Zaidi as its candidate for prime minister. The Coordination Framework, a coalition of Iran-aligned Shiite parties,...
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A Century of Lebanese-Israeli Talks Without Peace

Analysis Hilal Khashan -
For a century, Lebanese-Israeli negotiations have failed to bring about peace. Since its founding in 1920, Lebanon has refused to recognize Israel or support...
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Daily Memo: North Korea-Russia Ties, UAE Defense

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Growing relationship. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met separately with Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov and State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin in Pyongyang...
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Audio & Video

Who’s Holding the Cards? George Friedman on the Iran War Stalemate

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Video Geopolitical Futures -
A ceasefire is in place, but negotiations are once again breaking down over the conflict in Iran. Are we any closer to a long-term solution? On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss the stalled negotiations, the impacts of the US blockade on Iranian ports, and why this new strategy could be more about China than Iran for Donald Trump.
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Artemis and the Space Warfare Frontier

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Video Geopolitical Futures -
The return of humans to space with the Artemis II's orbit around the moon has captured the hearts and minds of millions around the world. While exploratory space travel enthralls the public, the geopolitics of space and its implications for war are something much less understood. On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss satellites, potential space warfare tactics, the strategic value of the moon, and why we went there in the first place.
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