Iran Conflict

The U.S. and Israel launched air strikes against Iran on February 28th targeting leadership and military assets. The question is no longer whether force will be used but whether it can be used without opening the door to a conflict that would be difficult to contain. This is the paradox of bargaining with force: It is used to avert war but also brings war closer.

Featured Content

War and the Principles of the Negotiation Process

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All wars end. Sometimes, the end is reached when one side achieves its goals, which can range from a limited victory to the conquest...

George Answers Your Questions: The Crisis of NATO, and China and the Iran Negotiations

The Crisis of NATO April 8, 2026 Question: For decades NATO has maintained that it is a defensive alliance, and this has been a central argument...

Lebanon’s Role in Turkey’s Vision for the Eastern Mediterranean

In recent years, Turkey has shown considerable interest in Lebanon, a country it sees as critical to the region’s economic and security future. President...

The Iran War and the Rewiring of West Asia

Though far from over, the war in Iran appears to be decelerating, if not yet achieving a decisive resolution. The Islamic Republic has survived,...

Special Collection on the Middle East

This complete work consists of several dozen essays spread out over 8 parts tackling the region’s conflicts and historical evolution, relating them to contemporary issues. Divided into distinct regions and critical issues, the Special Collection of the Middle East is your source to better understand this volatile region and to be prepared for what comes next.

Recent Analysis: Iran

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Daily Memo: Pakistani Deployment, Estonian Exemption

Pakistani deployment. Pakistan has confirmed the deployment of a military contingent to Saudi Arabia in response to recent attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels. A...

Daily Memo: China’s Nuclear Program, Turkey’s Military Assets

Nuclear oversight. The Trump administration has reportedly discussed with Chinese officials setting up mutual visits to both countries’ nuclear facilities, amid growing concerns over...

Daily Memo: Mecca Alliance to Invoke Collective Defense

Security support. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan condemned recent attacks on Saudi targets by Yemen’s Houthi rebels in a joint statement following an emergency...

Cracks Form in the Turkey-Azerbaijan Foundation

There’s no question that Turkey and Azerbaijan are close – even complementary. They signed a strategic alliance in 2021 that described their relationship as...

Daily Memo: Yemen Update, Russia-Afghanistan Talks

New offensive. Yemen’s internationally recognized government began a major offensive against the Houthi rebels on Monday after the country’s president announced a new military...

Thinking About How the Iran War Ends

All wars end, and they do so in one of two ways: Either one side defeats the other, or both sides negotiate a settlement....

George Answers Your Questions: A Possible Escalation by Iran

A Possible Escalation by Iran Sept. 28, 2026 Question: I've heard that the Iranian army is primarily a domestic security force. If the Turks decided they...

China Just Made Trump’s Energy Dilemma Worse

Barely a week after U.S. President Donald Trump hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington in an effort to stabilize U.S.-China relations, Beijing has...

Daily Memo: Europe on Support for Ukraine, Washington on European Fuel Supplies

Growing hesitation. European governments are pushing back on Ukraine’s request for more financial support. This week, Ukraine’s finance minister traveled to Brussels to warn...

Daily Memo: Houthis and Somali Militants Teaming Up, Ukraine’s Funding Gap

Ominous partnership. The Yemen-based Houthi rebels regularly visit parts of southern Somalia controlled by al-Shabab and are providing the Islamist group with weapons and...

Daily Memo: Netanyahu’s Trip to the UAE

Big gathering. Israel and the United Arab Emirates confirmed on Monday that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Abu Dhabi for talks with Emirati President...

Daily Memo: On US Sanctions on Iran and Withdrawal From Iraq

Ripple effect. A senior U.S. Treasury Department official visited several countries in the Middle East this month to push for stricter restrictions on their...

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Audio & Video

Who’s Holding the Cards? George Friedman on the Iran War Stalemate

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A ceasefire is in place, but negotiations are once again breaking down over the conflict in Iran. Are we any closer to a long-term solution? On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss the stalled negotiations, the impacts of the US blockade on Iranian ports, and why this new strategy could be more about China than Iran for Donald Trump.

Artemis and the Space Warfare Frontier

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The return of humans to space with the Artemis II's orbit around the moon has captured the hearts and minds of millions around the world. While exploratory space travel enthralls the public, the geopolitics of space and its implications for war are something much less understood. On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss satellites, potential space warfare tactics, the strategic value of the moon, and why we went there in the first place.