Weekly Graphic

Nov. 11, 2016 The Russian economy, which is heavily dependent on revenue from hydrocarbon exports, has suffered since oil prices began to drop in 2014. This chart shows Russian wage growth, interest rates and inflation from August 2015 to July 2016.

GDP per capita in Russia is down from an all-time high of $11,615 in 2013 to $11,038 in 2015. More than 2 million people fell into poverty in 2015 as wages fell by 9 percent. Inflation, which fell from 12.9 percent in December 2015 to 7.4 percent in March 2016, has been the most worrying indicator. As inflation dropped, the central bank resisted calls to cut the interest rate as nominal rages rose more than 5 percent in the first quarter, exceeding the rate of inflation for the first time since 2014.

Nov. 4, 2016 Over the past six weeks, an unmistakable escalation has occurred between Indian and Pakistani forces – largely in the disputed region of Kashmir. Occasional cease-fire violations have occurred since 2003, when both sides walked away from the brink of full-scale war that could have assumed a nuclear dimension. Control of Kashmir has been a bone of contention between India and Pakistan since both countries were created in 1947.

Oct. 28, 2016 The coalition participating in the invasion of Mosul is made up of mostly the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and the Kurdish peshmerga, with support from the United States. While the offensive has been underway for a few days now, neither the ISF nor the peshmerga have reached the city of Mosul proper yet. Coalition forces have encountered IS resistance at a number of locations, including Bashiqa, Bartella, Tall Kayf, al-Hamdaniya and Shura. Additionally, the coalition has left the west open to tempt IS to retreat from the city rather than fight.

Oct. 21, 2016 For months, the media has been filled with news of the impending offensive by Iraqi Security Forces – supported by a coalition of Kurdish peshmerga, Sunni tribal militias, Iran-backed Shiite militias and the U.S. – to retake Mosul from the Islamic State. The overture to this battle has finally begun. Offensive forces have started advancing on their battle positions and are now encountering resistance. This resistance will increase exponentially once the fighting moves into purely urban warfare.

Oct. 14, 2016 Yemen’s civil war has made its way back in to the headlines when two missiles were launched at U.S. warships in the Red Sea followed by U.S. retaliation that involved destroying three radar sites in Houthi and Saleh-loyalist areas in Yemen. Yemen doesn’t get nearly as much media coverage as Syria, largely due to the fact that the country is of no real strategic importance to anyone except for Saudi Arabia. That will quickly change if militants can reliably get their hands on anti-ship missiles and make crossing the maritime chokepoint at the Bab el-Mandeb difficult.

Oct. 8, 2016 Following Moody’s lead, credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s recently lowered Mexico’s long-term outlook from stable to negative due to its growing public debt. The warning bells surrounding the debt were sounded not so much because of the size of Mexico’s public debt but because of the speed at which that debt accumulated in recent years.

This week’s graphic shows different economic regions or groups with which Mexico is associated. When we look at Mexico’s debt as a percent of GDP, we see that it ranks on the lower end compared to its peers. This chart looks at three main peer groups. First, from a geographic perspective, Mexico belongs in North America, which is reflected in its membership in the North American Free Trade Agreement. Second, Mexico is often included in the group of “emerging” economies by mainstream media. Third, a number of major European economies are close in size to Mexico’s economy. From multiple angles, Mexico’s situation is comparatively positive.

Oct. 1, 2016 On Oct. 3, Germany will celebrate its 26th Unity Day, marking the reunification of former East and West Germany. While the country’s national border remains uncontested, internally the east has not yet completely integrated with the west. Rather, it continues to experience the growing pains that come with the transition from communism to capitalism.

Sept. 26, 2016 In our 2040 forecast, we identified Turkey as a major emerging power. We believe it will project power southwards into the Middle East, westwards into Europe and northwards into the Black Sea region. However, Turkey is currently mired in problems at home and struggling on the international front. This was the case even before the July 15 coup attempt.

Sept. 17, 2016 This map reflects the current Taliban battlespace in Afghanistan. Districts shaded in red are under Taliban control, meaning that the district headquarters in the main town, as well as the majority of surrounding areas, are controlled by the Taliban. The districts in yellow are partly under Taliban control. Although the Afghan government still holds the district headquarters, the Taliban holds power in surrounding areas. The Afghan government confirmed in late July that roughly a third of Afghanistan’s 384 districts are under serious threat from insurgent groups. Our research suggests that 44 districts are under Taliban control and 101 are under partial Taliban control.

The Taliban have been able to successfully push forward and capture territory all across Afghanistan for several reasons. Firstly, the Afghan government and its security forces are weak and fragile, facing internal dissention and unable to combat the Taliban on more than one front at a time. Secondly, the Taliban have been able to reach across the ethnolinguistic and tribal barriers that have historically kept Afghanistan’s population divided, allowing it to garner support and establish footholds all over the country. Lastly, the Taliban are well organized and effective, despite having three leaders in as many years. It has a hierarchical leadership structure, with regional commanders that have support and knowledge of the areas they control. Because of this, the group is able to execute surges and take territory on multiple fronts simultaneously.

Sept. 10, 2016 This map shows the geographical perspective of Germany. It is situated on the North European Plain, characterized by relatively flat topography, which it shares with parts of France, Belgium, the Netherlands, southern Scandinavia, Poland and western Russia. Though bordered to the north by the Baltic and North seas and to the south by the Alps, Germany has no significant natural boundaries to the east or west. Germany’s geographical position leaves the country permanently vulnerable to invasion – particularly from France in the west and Russia in the east.

Germany’s geographical reality and the subsequent deep-rooted fear of invasion has been a driving force in the country’s political history. In the 1870s, Prussian strategists created an alliance of independent German-speaking states to form a cohesive economic bloc and political unit that would be able to deter – or fight – potential invaders. In 1905, fear of invasion led Count Alfred von Schlieffen to propose a two-front war against France and Russia, believing that striking first would give Germany an advantage. Today, Germany continues to try to protect itself from outside threats, using the European Union and ensuing European integration to dominate the North European Plain and shield itself from historical rivals. By entangling itself in the EU’s web of political and economic alliances and dependencies, Germany hopes to keep its adversaries subdued.

Sept. 3, 2016 When we speak about the U.S. economy, we often pay less attention to the economies of the individual states. The states, however, are also political and economic entities. California, for example, would have roughly the seventh largest GDP in the world if it were a country. To understand the U.S. economy, you have to be able to see both the forest and the trees.

This week’s graphic demonstrates the level of dependency each U.S. state has on exports and breaks down each state’s top three international trading partners. Overall, the economy of the United States is not reliant on exports, which made up a mere 12.6 percent of GDP in 2015. Only five states, including Louisiana (20.18 percent), Washington (19.48 percent) and Texas (15.79 percent), get more of their GDP from exports than the national average. The most common export destinations for U.S. states are Canada, Mexico and China.

Aug. 27, 2016 This week’s graphic shows asylum claims in Europe in 2015, when over 1.3 million people sought refuge in Europe. To prevent an intensification of the migration crisis, the EU signed a deal with Turkey. In exchange for 3 billion euros (with the possibility of 3 billion more by 2018) and the promise of visa-free travel in the EU, Turkey said it would accept returned migrants from Greece. Before the deal, more than a thousand refugees were arriving in Greece every day. Since the deal, the number has dropped to approximately 60.