Israel/Palestine Conflict

The fighting that erupted between Israel and Hamas on Oct. 7 was no ordinary flare-up. It shattered the relative calm observed in the Middle East over the past few of years – a result of Israel’s efforts to reclaim its international status; of Iran’s efforts to reconcile with its neighbors; and of new alignments slowly forming among erstwhile enemies. Regional leadership and power dynamics are directly at stake, as is the potential shape of the Middle East itself.

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The State of the Israeli-Gaza Conflict

The origins of the modern Arab-Israeli conflict are pretty well known. Gaza, the narrow strip of land running to the Sinai Peninsula, was originally...

The Drumbeat of War in the Middle East

Threats of impending war have permeated the Middle East since Israel’s establishment in 1948. Though Egypt made peace with Israel in 1978 and Jordan...

The Eclipse of the Palestinian Question

Until the 1970s, the Palestinian question had preoccupied the Arab world since the creation of Israel in 1948. Public figures and ordinary Arabs were...

West Bank Violence Stalls Arab-Israeli Normalization

Last month, three senior U.S. officials visited Israel and the Palestinian Territories to try to avert a third Palestinian intifada. National Security Adviser Jake...

Recent Analysis: Israel & Palestine

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Turkey’s Meager Influence in the Middle East

Despite its significant size, stature and history, Turkey has been unable to shape the outcome of the major regional conflict that followed Hamas’ Oct....

Israel and Saudi Arabia’s Bumpy Road to Peace

Ever since Riyadh gave its tacit approval for the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain to establish diplomatic ties with Israel in 2020, Saudi Arabia...

Daily Memo: Israel’s Economy Plunges, China Cuts Mortgage Reference Rate

Counting costs. Israel’s economy contracted by 19.4 percent on an annualized basis in the fourth quarter of 2023, the largest decline since early 2020,...

Daily Memo: Germany and Ukraine Sign Security Deal, Israel Offers New Plan

Backing Ukraine. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a security pact in Berlin on Friday. With the deal, which likely...

Daily Memo: Hamas’ Proposal, US’ Top Importers

Counteroffer. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a plan proposed by Hamas to end the fighting in Gaza. The proposal, which came in response...

Daily Memo: Russian Rail Crunch, Kazakh Exports

Russian shortage. Russian Railways experienced a shortage of trains in late 2023 due to maintenance delays, Russian business daily Vedomosti reported. According to the...

Israel-Hamas War Underscores Egypt’s Indecisiveness

Like many other states, Egypt was caught off guard by the Israel-Hamas war. The magnitude of Hamas’ attack on Oct. 7 left Egypt little...

U.S. and Iranian Intentions

Three U.S. servicemen were killed during a drone attack last night on a military base in Jordan, located near the Syrian border. President Joe...

Daily Memo: Houthis Meet in Moscow, Israeli Defense Deal

The Houthis and the Kremlin. Representatives from Yemen’s Houthi rebels arrived in Moscow to meet with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov and discuss...

Global Forecast for the Next Year

This is not a detailed forecast of the fate of every country for 2024. Rather, it is an attempt to identify the main trends...

Daily Memo: Poland and Germany Brace for Demos, Iranian and Russian Security Chiefs Meet

Protests in Europe. Farmers in Poland are holding nationwide protests on Wednesday against what they see as unfair competition from third countries, including Ukraine....

The Middle East as a Powder Keg

In response to the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to change the Middle East. An Israeli army spokesman...

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Mauldin Economics Global Macro Update: George Friedman on the “Two Chinas” and How Putin Saves Face

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What is the reality on the ground in China, and what will prevent China from invading Taiwan? George Friedman joined Mauldin Economics' Ed D’Agostino for a discussion on some of the most pressing geopolitical developments happening right now: Russia's threat to NATO, unrest and economic strains in China, and the multisided war in the Middle East.

The Challenges of Intelligence | ClubGPF Preview with George Friedman

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How do intelligence failures happen? What are the ramifications for such failures? In our recent ClubGPF discussion, GPF Chairman George Friedman examined the different types of intelligence and why they’re important, applying the various intelligence strategies to the current geopolitical struggles in the world, including the Israel-Gaza conflict and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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