During his presidential campaign, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump promised to deal with China, and he will be compelled to try and deliver success to his supporters. This will bring the United States and China into disagreement, so it is important to better understand the relative vulnerabilities in the trading relationship between the two countries. Therefore, Geopolitical Futures is conducting a bottom-up review of the economic relationship between China and the U.S. This preliminary study concludes that China is more economically dependent on the U.S. than the U.S. is on China. This is because the U.S. is not wholly reliant on China for any strategically important commodities or products, the U.S. has significant extra capacity in many of its manufacturing sectors, and the U.S. is resilient to Chinese retaliatory moves.
China depends on U.S. imports of its products, and the U.S. also depends on imports of cheap Chinese products; however, China’s dependency i