Daily Memo
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Daily Memo: China’s Taiwan White Paper, Turkey Seeking Funds

Zero tolerance. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office issued a white paper in which it vowed...

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Population Growth Trends

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(click to enlarge) Over the long term, demographics affect geopolitical trends and state behavior. Population size has implications for public pension systems, economic growth, food...

Drought in North America

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(click to enlarge) Dating back to 1848, water sharing is one of the longest-standing areas of bilateral cooperation between Mexico and the United States. Agreements...

The Fallout Over Taiwan

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U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit to Taiwan predictably sparked outrage in China,...

Russia’s New Maritime Strategy

On July 31, just before the start of a naval parade, President Vladimir Putin...

Learn How the Commodities Crisis Affects You

America's Broken Supply Chains
Russia and the First Economic World War
Indonesian Exports and Palm Oil Prices
Arab Food Insecurity and Political Failure
China's Role in Sri Lanka's Economic Crisis
And much more

Featured Analysis

The Future of NATO’s Strategic Concept

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2022 will bring two major diplomatic events for the trans-Atlantic community. First, in March, the European Union will adopt its Strategic Compass, a document...

Tunisia’s President Tightens His Grip on Power

In July 2021, Tunisian President Kais Saied staged a presidential coup, fired Prime Minister...

Russia’s Protracted War in Ukraine

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The war in Ukraine is raging with no end in sight. Neither Russia nor...

Destabilizing Major Powers

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The Geopolitical Futures model argues that the northern tier of entities are the center...

In China, New Purges, New Targets

China’s restructuring of real estate giant Evergrande Group is not exactly going as planned....

The Fallout Over Taiwan

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U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit to Taiwan predictably sparked outrage in China, which responded by flexing its muscles through some not-at-all subtle...

The Storm Before the Calm

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Buy The Storm Before the Calm paperback and receive 6 exclusive bonus chapters.
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The World in 2022

This year, pandemic-induced shortages and supply disruptions frame all other trends in the international system.

The Road to 2040

We look into the future and forecast what the world…

The World in 2021

Economic and political fallout from COVID-19 responses will remain the primary driver of events in 2021.

Read our annual or long term forecasts.

Media / Interviews

RealClearDefense: The Fallout Over Taiwan

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U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit to Taiwan predictably sparked outrage in China, which responded by flexing its muscles through some not-at-all subtle...

RealClearDefense: In China, New Purges, New Targets

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China’s restructuring of real estate giant Evergrande Group is not exactly going as planned. In mid-May, the company was on track to deliver a...

RealClearDefense: Russian Military Doctrine

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The city of Lysychansk has fallen to Russia. Russia has the choice of accepting its recent victory as the culmination of the war or...

Trending Content

Tunisia’s President Tightens His Grip on Power

In July 2021, Tunisian President Kais Saied staged a presidential coup, fired Prime Minister Hisham Mchichi, suspended the parliament and ruled by decree, arrogating...

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