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Daily Memo: Ukraine Update, EU Diplomat in Tehran

Ukraine update. Ukrainian forces have been ordered to withdraw from the embattled city of...


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Cycles of Turmoil

(click to enlarge) Political leadership in Arab countries is often a poisoned chalice. Violence and upheaval have been hallmarks of political transition in the Middle...

The Long Fight to Control Taiwan

(click to enlarge) Not so long ago, Taiwan and mainland China were mending their relations. Trade relations and cultural exchanges developed rapidly in the early...

The Paradox of a Strong Ruble

After a precipitous fall at the beginning of the war in Ukraine and the...

The Evolution of Great Powers

The evolution of military power is one of the most important if underrated geopolitical...
Forecasts From George Friedman’s Book:
The Next 100 Years

(published 2009)

"For the next generation until roughly 2020, Russia’s primary concern will be reconstructing the Russian state and reasserting Russian power in the region... The Russians must dominate Belarus and Ukraine for their basic national security... If they were to fall into an enemy’s hands –for example, join NATO- Russia would be in mortal danger."

Featured Analysis

The Future of NATO’s Strategic Concept

2022 will bring two major diplomatic events for the trans-Atlantic community. First, in March, the European Union will adopt its Strategic Compass, a document...

No Break With the US After Colombian Election

Colombia has elected a new president, and the moment of truth has arrived. The...

Israel Calls Hezbollah’s Bluff

Earlier this month, the Israeli-contracted Energean Power gas rig reached the Suez Canal from...

Checking in on the Global Economy

Let’s check in on the global economy. The world is struggling with inflation, even...

Economies and War

The American economy, the largest and most dynamic in the world, is a geopolitical...

Where the Cold War Began

I stood on a balcony in Warsaw this past week to gaze at the Vistula River. The Vistula runs wide and deep, the guardian...

The Storm Before the Calm

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Buy The Storm Before the Calm paperback and receive 6 exclusive bonus chapters.
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The World in 2022

This year, pandemic-induced shortages and supply disruptions frame all other trends in the international system.

The Road to 2040

We look into the future and forecast what the world…

The World in 2021

Economic and political fallout from COVID-19 responses will remain the primary driver of events in 2021.

Read our annual or long term forecasts.

Media / Interviews

Stirile TV: The Other War, From Hunger to Overthrows of Regimes

We have two wars - the struggle in Ukraine and the economic war with Russia. The economic war with Russia I expect him to...

RealClearDefense: Struggling to Find the Exit From War

French President Emmanuel Macron said last week that an off-ramp must be found for Russian President Vladimir Putin in Ukraine. This is not a...

RealClearDefense: Why Iran Won’t Compromise in Nuclear Talks

A year after the start of Iran nuclear negotiations in Vienna, talks ended unsurprisingly without an agreement on the core issues. Although Iran needs...

Trending Content

Daily Memo: Lithuania Blocks Kaliningrad Imports

No-go. Lithuania banned the transportation of EU-sanctioned goods to Russia's exclave of Kaliningrad through its territory after consultations with the European Commission. Russian presidential...

Cycles of Turmoil

(click to enlarge) Political leadership in Arab countries is often a poisoned chalice. Violence and upheaval have been hallmarks of political transition in the Middle...

George Friedman on The John Batchelor Show: Guns, Butter and Ukraine

Inflation is at record highs as global markets struggle to recover from COVID-19 supply chain bottlenecks and disruptions from the Ukraine war. GPF Chairman George Friedman joins John Batchelor to discuss how the U.S. has been in this position before, and how it might navigate its way out of these crises.

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