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Brief: Serbia’s Show of Force to Kosovo

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Background: Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia in 2008, less than...

Brief: The UK and the USMCA

Background: The post-Brexit United Kingdom is still trying to define its...

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Daily Memo: Biden’s Comments on Taiwan, Evergrande Meets Deadline

U.S. commitment to Taiwan. U.S. President Joe Biden on Thursday, in response to a...

What We're Reading

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What We’re Reading: Patriot, Games

Spec Ops: The Line Developed by Yager Development I’m one of the fortunate many who knows...

What We’re Reading: The Cause of War and Tyranny

Man, the State, and War:A Theoretical Analysis By Kenneth Waltz As a former international relations student,...

Europe’s Influence on Arab Radicalism

European radicalism has had a significant impact on Arab political thinking. After the First...

For Brazil, a Bad Year Could Get Worse

It’s clear something is off in trade logistics when the best available method of...

Featured Analysis

The Illusion of Arab Nationalism

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The Arab uprisings briefly resurrected the idea of Arab nationalism. During the 2011 Pan Arab Games in Qatar, spectators sang the unofficial Arab national...

Supply Chains: Our Parachute Moment

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At the risk of beating a dead horse, I’m writing about supply chains again....

Are France and Italy a Foil to Germany?

France and Italy plan to sign the Quirinal Treaty, an agreement meant to improve...

The Illusion of Arab Nationalism

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The Arab uprisings briefly resurrected the idea of Arab nationalism. During the 2011 Pan...

What’s Driving the Spike in Energy Prices?

Inflation has been a big story around the world for much of 2021. But...

Europe’s Faltering Economic Recovery

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(click to enlarge) As the COVID-19 vaccination campaign proceeds, the pandemic seems almost under control in Europe. Social distancing measures are being lifted and economies...

In Search of the Normal

I have spent the past few weeks obsessing over the apocalypse of disappearing workers, lost Christmas presents, the pandemic that will not end, and...

The Storm Before the Calm

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The World in 2021

Economic and political fallout from COVID-19 responses will remain the primary driver of events in 2021.

The Road to 2040

We look into the future and forecast what the world…

The World in 2020

Economic dysfunction will be the main driver of the international system in 2020.

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Media / Interviews

RealClearWorld: Is This Uzbekistan’s Time?

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In our 2019 Annual Forecast, we said we expected Uzbekistan to challenge Kazakhstan as the dominant power in Central Asia. The COVID-19 pandemic delayed any...

El Herald de Mexico: México-EEUU: ¿nuevo trato?

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"'Si bien las iniciativas de México pueden no tener el mismo impacto en el hemisferio que las de Washington, son suficientes para mostrarle a...

Cicero: Projekt „Blaue Heimat“

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Die Türkei tritt im östlichen Mittelmeerraum zunehmend aggressiv auf – es geht um Gasvorkommen, den Zypern-Konflikt und um geostrategische Ziele. Wegen der Pandemie hat...

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Supply Chains: Our Parachute Moment

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At the risk of beating a dead horse, I’m writing about supply chains again. Ekaterina Zolotova and Phillip Orchard can explain why Russian-Chinese maneuvers...

Are France and Italy a Foil to Germany?

France and Italy plan to sign the Quirinal Treaty, an agreement meant to improve bilateral relations generally and economic coordination and industrial ties specifically,...

Europe’s Faltering Economic Recovery

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(click to enlarge) As the COVID-19 vaccination campaign proceeds, the pandemic seems almost under control in Europe. Social distancing measures are being lifted and economies...

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