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Daily Memo: US-Iran Talks Resume, BRICS Expansion

Back at the table. U.S. and Iranian negotiators arrived in Doha on Tuesday to...

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Tracking Global Investment

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(click to enlarge) 2021 turned out to be quite positive for foreign direct investment, despite the ongoing recovery from the pandemic, quarantines and difficulties in...

Cycles of Turmoil

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(click to enlarge) Political leadership in Arab countries is often a poisoned chalice. Violence and upheaval have been hallmarks of political transition in the Middle...

A New Phase in the Ukraine War

Wars tend to unfold in phases, though it’s never clear how many phases there...

The Turkish Opposition’s Plan to Unseat Erdogan in 2023

Turkey is set to hold presidential elections in June 2023. They will come at...
Forecasts From George Friedman’s Book:
The Next 100 Years

(published 2009)

"For the next generation until roughly 2020, Russia’s primary concern will be reconstructing the Russian state and reasserting Russian power in the region... The Russians must dominate Belarus and Ukraine for their basic national security... If they were to fall into an enemy’s hands –for example, join NATO- Russia would be in mortal danger."

Featured Analysis

The Future of NATO’s Strategic Concept

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2022 will bring two major diplomatic events for the trans-Atlantic community. First, in March, the European Union will adopt its Strategic Compass, a document...

The Paradox of a Strong Ruble

After a precipitous fall at the beginning of the war in Ukraine and the...

The Evolution of Great Powers

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The evolution of military power is one of the most important if underrated geopolitical...

No Break With the US After Colombian Election

Colombia has elected a new president, and the moment of truth has arrived. The...

Israel Calls Hezbollah’s Bluff

Earlier this month, the Israeli-contracted Energean Power gas rig reached the Suez Canal from...

Warsaw to Budapest

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The trip from Warsaw to Budapest is a trip between two realities. Warsaw is not quite on a war footing but exudes a desire...

The Storm Before the Calm

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Buy The Storm Before the Calm paperback and receive 6 exclusive bonus chapters.
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Forecasts

The World in 2022

This year, pandemic-induced shortages and supply disruptions frame all other trends in the international system.

The Road to 2040

We look into the future and forecast what the world…

The World in 2021

Economic and political fallout from COVID-19 responses will remain the primary driver of events in 2021.

Read our annual or long term forecasts.

Media / Interviews

Stirile TV: The Other War, From Hunger to Overthrows of Regimes

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We have two wars - the struggle in Ukraine and the economic war with Russia. The economic war with Russia I expect him to...

RealClearDefense: Struggling to Find the Exit From War

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French President Emmanuel Macron said last week that an off-ramp must be found for Russian President Vladimir Putin in Ukraine. This is not a...

RealClearDefense: Why Iran Won’t Compromise in Nuclear Talks

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A year after the start of Iran nuclear negotiations in Vienna, talks ended unsurprisingly without an agreement on the core issues. Although Iran needs...

Trending Content

The Evolution of Great Powers

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The evolution of military power is one of the most important if underrated geopolitical changes happening in the world today. Throughout the 20th century,...

Daily Memo: Lithuania Blocks Kaliningrad Imports

No-go. Lithuania banned the transportation of EU-sanctioned goods to Russia's exclave of Kaliningrad through its territory after consultations with the European Commission. Russian presidential...

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