Daily Memo
What's Geopolitically Important Today

Daily Memo: US-Taiwan Trade Talks

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Trade talks. The United States and Taiwan agreed to start trade negotiations in 11...
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Europe

Norway Adds to Europe’s Energy Crunch

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Geopolitical Futures -
(click to enlarge) Norway is one of Europe’s most important alternatives to Russian energy supplies. In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, EU countries...
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Population Growth Trends

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(click to enlarge) Over the long term, demographics affect geopolitical trends and state behavior. Population size has implications for public pension systems, economic growth, food...
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Japan’s Gradual Military Reawakening

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(click to enlarge) After its defeat in World War II, Japan was deprived of any military capability. Pursuant to Article 9 of its new constitution,...
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Drought in North America

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(click to enlarge) Dating back to 1848, water sharing is one of the longest-standing areas of bilateral cooperation between Mexico and the United States. Agreements...
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The Scalable World War Ahead

AnalysisJacek Bartosiak -
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan begins a new era of confrontation...
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A Small Window for the US and Cuba

AmericasAllison Fedirka -
The war in Ukraine is a truly global conflict. Citizens of faraway regions may...
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Learn How the Commodities Crisis Affects You

America's Broken Supply Chains
Russia and the First Economic World War
Indonesian Exports and Palm Oil Prices
Arab Food Insecurity and Political Failure
China's Role in Sri Lanka's Economic Crisis
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Featured Analysis

The Future of NATO’s Strategic Concept

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Antonia Colibasanu -
2022 will bring two major diplomatic events for the trans-Atlantic community. First, in March, the European Union will adopt its Strategic Compass, a document...
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The Ideological Division Between Hamas and Islamic Jihad

AnalysisHilal Khashan -
Israel's decisive triumph in the 1967 Six-Day War discredited pan-Arab nationalist movements and secular...
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A New Phase in the Global Economic War

AnalysisAntonia Colibasanu -
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, it didn’t just start a ground war in...
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The Fallout Over Taiwan

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AnalysisGeorge Friedman -
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit to Taiwan predictably sparked outrage in China,...
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Russia’s New Maritime Strategy

AnalysisEkaterina Zolotova -
On July 31, just before the start of a naval parade, President Vladimir Putin...
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When Russia Prepared for the Inconceivable

George Friedman -
Many of our readers have challenged my idea that Russia invaded Ukraine out fear – fear that, deprived of the strategic depth Ukraine provides,...
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The Storm Before the Calm

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Forecasts

The World in 2022

This year, pandemic-induced shortages and supply disruptions frame all other trends in the international system.

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The Road to 2040

We look into the future and forecast what the world…

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The World in 2021

Economic and political fallout from COVID-19 responses will remain the primary driver of events in 2021.

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Media / Interviews

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MarketWatch: Ukraine War is Bringing New Economic Hardships and Major World Powers are Caught in the Crossfire

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Press Geopolitical Futures -
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, it didn’t just start a ground war in Europe — it opened up a worldwide economic war involving...
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RealClearWorld: Russia and China’s Strategic Problem

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Press Geopolitical Futures -
America’s goal in Ukraine is to deny Russia the strategic depth it wants in order to limit the Russian threat to Europe. With China,...
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RealClearDefense: The Fallout Over Taiwan

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Press Geopolitical Futures -
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit to Taiwan predictably sparked outrage in China, which responded by flexing its muscles through some not-at-all subtle...
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Daily Memo: Unblocking Russian Oil Transit, North Korean Nukes

AnalysisGeopolitical Futures -
Supplies restored. An unnamed European bank agreed to process a transit payment for Russian oil through Ukraine, clearing the way to restore oil flows...
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Homage to the Bronx

From the Desk of George FriedmanGeorge Friedman -
When my wife and I arrived at the Las Vegas airport recently, we saw a sign advertising a show called “The Bronx Wanderers,” apparently...
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Daily Memo: Infrastructure Pacts and Defense Cooperation

AnalysisGeopolitical Futures -
Trans-Himalayan network. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his Nepali counterpart, Narayan Khadka, agreed to build the Trans-Himalayan Multi-Dimensional Connectivity Network, involving railways and...
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The Ideological Division Between Hamas and Islamic Jihad

AnalysisHilal Khashan -
Israel's decisive triumph in the 1967 Six-Day War discredited pan-Arab nationalist movements and secular leaders. It gave impetus to state-oppressed religious groups, such as...
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Daily Memo: China’s Taiwan White Paper, Turkey Seeking Funds

AmericasGeopolitical Futures -
Zero tolerance. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office issued a white paper in which it vowed zero tolerance for separatism and reaffirmed that it would seize...
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A New Phase in the Global Economic War

AnalysisAntonia Colibasanu -
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, it didn’t just start a ground war in Europe – it opened up what would become a worldwide...
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