China’s Successors: The Manufacturing Migration

June 15, 2016 New countries are inheriting the role of the once-dominant basic manufacturing powerhouse.

Deep Dive

|June 15, 2016

In July 2013, while I was chairman of Stratfor, I oversaw a project called the Post China 16 (PC16). It identified the 16 countries that were likely to succeed China as the high-growth, low-wage countries. Three years later, it is time to review and adjust that list.

The decline of China as an economic power has been precipitous. So, the question of who will succeed China has become more urgent. Geopolitical Futures has focused on this question and narrowed the list of potential successors to 13, with some important shifts among the remaining countries.

The international system has usually had low-wage, high-growth countries producing basic and inexpensive manufactured goods. More advanced countries took advantage of their production, while successful developing countries used exports to vault into the first tier of economies.

Before China, there was Japan. Before Japan were South Korea and Germany. All had been shattered by World War II. In the 1870s, the United States was in

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China’s Successors: The Manufacturing Migration

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China’s Successors: The Manufacturing Migration