The Global Economy Rebounds, Stumbles Again

The IMF's latest data would be encouraging if it had accounted for the war in Ukraine.

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Global Economic Trends | 2021

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Economic data for the past two years – that is, the majority of the COVID-19 pandemic – has finally been processed and made available thanks to the International Monetary Fund, giving us a more clear picture of how the global economy is performing. Though the pandemic initially hit much of the world hard, most countries seem to have rebounded, as have their industrial production, both of which are leveling off this year.

Notably absent from the IMF Outlook, however, is the Ukraine war, which began after the data was published. This explains why its estimates are relatively rosy, if not quite as strong as the rebound in 2021. Data available in July will no doubt account for the Russian invasion, which has been yet another exogenous shock to aa system that had just barely started to recover from the pandemic. States that had hoped to turn the tide this year will likely find themselves waiting much longer than they expected.

Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Storm Before the Calm and The Next 100 Years. GPF is non-ideological, analyzes the world and forecasts the future using geopolitics: political, economic, military and geographic dimensions at the foundation of a nation.