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Briefs

Brief: Serbia’s Show of Force to Kosovo

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Background: Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia in 2008, less than 10 years after a NATO-led peacekeeping operation began there. Serbia, however, has yet...

Brief: The UK and the USMCA

Background: The post-Brexit United Kingdom is still trying to define its new role in the international system. London has been trying to replace the...

Featured

Europe’s Exposure to Turkey’s Problems

For well over a year, Turkey has been projecting an image of itself that is out of sync with the reality at home. It...

In Europe, a Blackout Brings Hard Truths to Light

On April 28, millions across Spain, Portugal and parts of France were plunged into darkness after a massive, unexpected power outage. Metro systems stalled,...

How Wars End

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Wars – which I will define broadly as matters of military conflict sustained partly by the nature of the soldiers fighting and partly by...

China Bolsters Presence on Indian Border

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(click to enlarge) Since the 2020 clashes between Chinese and Indian troops in the Galwan Valley in the disputed Ladakh region, China has significantly strengthened...

What the Latest India-Pakistan Conflict Means for the US

A recent attack in the India-controlled region of Kashmir, reportedly conducted by Pakistan-backed militants, came at a bad time for the government in New...

A New Challenge to Kim’s Rule in North Korea

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un could be facing a new threat to his grip on power led by none other than his own...

US Assault on Houthis Brings No Relief for Yemen

With U.S. airstrikes against the Houthi rebels intensifying, Yemen is at a critical juncture. Last month, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened that ā€œhell would...

The Trump-Putin Negotiations

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I normally avoid personalizing geopolitical events, since I regard nations, not leaders, to be the agents of history. But there are moments when the...

The EU Changes Course in Africa

Since the end of the colonial era, Europe has spent much of its time in Africa on promoting shared values and development – often...

As Trade Changes, So Does US Defense

Reports from around the world suggest U.S. military policy is at odds with itself. On the one hand, the United States has pledged to...

Gaming Out Iran Negotiations

The Trump administration’s diplomacy with Iran is about much more than nuclear nonproliferation. Whatever happens will have massive implications for Tehran at a time...

Assessing the Potential Impact of US Tariffs

The United States’ sweeping tariffs announced earlier this month have disrupted global shipping networks and triggered turmoil across the logistics sector. Though the durability...

How the UK Bridges the US and EU

By Will Haszard Once the world’s preeminent empire, the United Kingdom has since World War II become a shadow of its former self, living in...

What We're Reading

What We’re Reading: Trade and the Ancient World

The Roman Empire and the Silk Routes: The Ancient World Economy and the Empires of Parthia, Central Asia and Han China By Raoul McLaughlin ā€œThe Roman...

What We’re Reading: All About Europe

Europe's Future: Decoupling and Reforming By Sergio Fabbrini Sergio Fabbrini is easily one of the most important political scientists studying EU governance. His essays are required...

What We’re Reading: Silence and Sleep

The Silence By Don DeLillo Last week, a bunch of us Texans prepared for the worst as a winter storm pelted our homes with freezing rain...

What We’re Reading: Robots and Russian Heroes

Burn-In: A Novel of the Real Robotic Revolution By August Cole and P.W. Singer The plot of ā€œBurn-Inā€ is … fine. Written by the same duo...

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How Wars End

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Wars – which I will define broadly as matters of military conflict sustained partly by the nature of the soldiers fighting and partly by...
George Friedman’s new book:
The Storm Before the Calm

The Storm before the Calmā€œWho will win the acrimonious 2020 presidential election? Shockingly, it won’t actually matter that much, argues renowned geopolitical forecaster George Friedman. America, he contends, is governed less by leaders and legislation and more by cyclical forces that work deep within the nation’s unique structure.ā€
Lone Star Literary Life

Daily Memo: Israel’s Plans for Gaza

Israel's deadline. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has set a deadline of next October to end the Gaza war, Israel Hayom reported, citing a...

Media / Interviews

US Bargaining With China and Russia

With the arrival of the second Trump administration, great power competition is at an inflection point. Both Russia and China face internal crises that compel them to engage with the United States. To increase their leverage, Beijing and Moscow are attempting to coordinate their efforts. However, their ability to support each other is severely limited, giving the U.S. considerable room to maneuver. In recent days, the leaders of the world’s three great powers have engaged in a flurry of diplomacy. A few days before his inauguration, Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a phone call that both sides described as positive. Then, hours after taking the oath of office, Trump told reporters that Russian President Vladimir Putin was ā€œdestroying Russia by not making a deal [on Ukraine]ā€ and that Russia was ā€œin big troubleā€ given the state of its economy. Finally, on Jan. 22, Putin held a 95-minute video call with Xi, during which they discussed their interactions with the new Trump administration. World leaders are typically quick to engage any new administration in Washington, although it’s uncommon for these interactions to occur even before the inauguration. However, this moment is different for two key reasons. First, Trump’s political comeback heralds a campaign to reshape the U.S. political system and overhaul U.S. foreign policy. Second, the world is beset by a level of crisis not seen since World War II. The United States is managing two wars – in Europe and the Middle East – while confronting the potential for a third in East Asia. China’s economy is in steep decline, forcing Beijing to focus on stabilization. And Russia needs a resolution to its extremely costly war against Ukraine. In essence, all three powers are under immense pressure to deescalate and stabilize their geopolitical positions. The common thread for China and Russia is that they both need to make a deal with the U.S. to solve their respective crises. Each recognizes the limits of what the other can do to help. Beijing is not in a position to aid Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine, while the Kremlin cannot help the Chinese Communist Party fix its economic problems – which are increasingly becoming political in nature. Both see their best paths forward as reaching agreements with Washington. Russia hopes to leverage Trump’s pledge to end ā€œforever warsā€ and his proclivity for dealmaking to retain as much Ukrainian territory as possible after nearly three years of conflict. Similarly, Xi hopes to convince Trump to offer some relief from U.S. restrictions on trade, technology and investment, which could help stabilize China’s faltering economy. Though in some ways the second Trump administration presents opportunities for both China and Russia, Trump’s unpredictability and the looming threat of punitive measures mean that bargaining will be difficult, to say the least. This uncertainty was underscored by Sergei Ryabkov, the Kremlin’s top official for arms control and relations with the U.S., who warned on Jan. 22 that the window for a deal is narrow and that Moscow lacks clarity on Washington’s intentions. Similarly, Chinese Vice President Han Zheng acknowledged after meeting with his U.S. counterpart, JD Vance, that while there is potential for cooperation, significant disagreements remain. The lengthy video call between Xi and Putin signals a recognition of their shared reality. The leaders are said to have compared notes on how they see the U.S. behaving in this new era. But setting aside their tireless rhetoric about their strong bilateral friendship, both leaders are wary that a deal between one of them and Washington could harm the other’s interests. Therefore, in addition to coordination, their call was also intended to assess how far the other was willing to compromise. From the U.S. perspective, negotiations with Russia have a clearer path, given Washington’s interest in ending the Russia-Ukraine war. The key question is how much of Ukraine’s territory Washington is willing to let Moscow retain in a ceasefire. Talks with China are far less straightforward due to the complexities of the geoeconomic relationship. In both cases, however, Washington holds significant leverage, knowing that both Beijing and Moscow have no choice but to engage.

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A New Challenge to Kim’s Rule in North Korea

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un could be facing a new threat to his grip on power led by none other than his own...

Daily Memo: Another Round of Ukraine Talks

More talks. A new round of negotiations over the fate of Ukraine began in London on April 23, with the United States, the United...

US Assault on Houthis Brings No Relief for Yemen

With U.S. airstrikes against the Houthi rebels intensifying, Yemen is at a critical juncture. Last month, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened that ā€œhell would...

Daily Memo: Japanese Support for Ukraine, French Presence in Syria

Intelligence-sharing. Japan has agreed to provide Ukraine with satellite-based geospatial data, including radar imagery obtained from Synthetic Aperture Radar satellites. It’s the first time...

Special Report:

The Geopolitics of Donald Trump

ā€œThere are those who regard Donald Trump as too stupid to make decisions. There are others who regard him as a brilliant if instinctive crafter of policy. What we know of him is this. "

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