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From the Desk of George Friedman

Russia’s Puzzling Moves

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Over the past few weeks, two odd things have happened in Russia. The first is that Russian President Vladimir Putin has restructured the government....

Returning to the Beginning

In recent weeks, I have been writing on the very ordinary but precious moments of my life. I wrote about the complexity of my family’s holidays and of a vacation, with what I hope came across as humor. All this is in preparation for my return to my original project: to place geopolitics in the […]

Evaluating the Importance of Recent Events

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There are moments when the entire world seems to be coming apart, as if Armageddon itself were upon us. Public attention tends to be...

George Friedman’s Thoughts: On Vacations

As you read this, I am lying on a lounge on a tropical beach, living in a pseudo hut with a private pool and extremely obsequious servants, chief among them a woman who is a soap butcher who asks you to pick your preferred soap and slices it to your specifications. I like being given […]

Iranian and American Strategies After Soleimani

Iran has expressed outrage at the killing of Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s Quds Force, and has announced a resumption of its nuclear enrichment program, but little in the way of reprisals has actually taken place. For the United States, the goal of killing Soleimani was to break the Iranian sphere of influence. Its […]

Iran and the United States: What Comes Next

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In order to understand the current confrontation between Iran and the United States, we might begin with the Persian-Babylonian wars. Alternatively, we could begin...

George Friedman’s Thoughts: A Speech in Istanbul

Turkey’s decision to move its economic zone in the Eastern Mediterranean to abut Libya’s and then to announce that it was planning to send troops to support the embattled government in Libya has changed the shape of the Middle East. The Libyan government is under attack by a faction with strong Russian support and troops. […]

Turkey Makes Its Move

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In “The Next 100 Years,” I described Turkey as an emerging regional power that would over time extend its sphere of influence to resemble...

Two Holidays

This week we are celebrating two holidays in our house: Hanukkah and Christmas. In the United States, Hanukkah has become an elongated Christmas focused on gift giving. The true meaning of Hanukkah is lost, with most not understanding that they are celebrating victory in a brutal war between the Seleucids, heirs of the Alexandrian Empire, […]

North Korea and the Threat of ICBMs

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Rumors have been swirling that North Korea is about to test an intercontinental ballistic missile. The source for this latest rumor is U.S. intelligence,...

George Friedman’s Thoughts: A Month of Travel

Since the beginning of November, I have traveled, in sequence, to Dubai, Calgary, New York, Istanbul, Zurich and London, with quick stopovers at home as possible, to catch my breath and try my hand at running a business. The schedule was sufficiently intense that I had to beg off writing my Thoughts column last week. […]

The Posh Versus the Blokes in the UK

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I arrived in London on Saturday afternoon. Traffic was heavy and it took nearly two hours to reach my hotel, giving ample time to...