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The United States
The Middle East
Conclusion: The World After Eurasia
A Word on Geopolitical Forecasting
Forty years ago, in 1975, the world was transfixed with pictures of helicopters taking off from the U.S. Embassy in Saigon. The pictures created a sense not only of American vulnerability but also of decline. This sense was compounded by the state of American society. The oil embargo of 1973 had wreaked havoc on the American economy. Inflation was over 9 percent. Unemployment was at 8.5 percent. A 30-year mortgage on a home was available at about 9 percent interest. Just a decade before, the country witnessed the assassinations of John F. Kennedy and Martin Luther King, Jr. and riots throughout the United States in their wake. Richard Nixon had resigned as president a year before.
It was a reasonable assumption that the United States was in deep and irreversible decline in the world and