From the Desk of George Friedman

A new military exercise reminds us of a battle that never was.

Washington claims Moscow violated an arms control treaty.

It is hard to imagine an Arab alliance that can cohere as a military giant.

The U.S. no longer wants to manage its problems primarily through force.

The government in Tehran made its move. Now, it’s being boxed in.

It’s dangerous to pine for a time that never really was.

Sometimes the smallest and most obscure places generate the most concern among major powers.

The myth of disengagement derives from American rhetoric and not American actions.

Perhaps this time is different.

The crisis is part of a systemic problem that rapidly emerging powers frequently encounter.

In the span of 40 days, the post-Cold War optimism was crushed.

If Germany wants the strategic partnership to continue, it must become a strategic partner.