It’s December, a month that for most companies means the year is winding down and vacation is just around the corner. For GPF, December is the busiest month of the year, and there is no rest for the weary. In addition to our regular offerings, we publish our two most important analyses: the annual forecast for the coming year and our report card, a document we use to assess our performance during the previous year. Of the two, the report card is arguably more important for a simple reason: It’s easy to forecast, it’s hard to forecast correctly, and it’s harder still to hold ourselves accountable in such a public forum.
Overall, our 2017 Forecast was less accurate than our 2016 Forecast. In some areas we shined, thanks to our predictions of Russia’s internal struggles and the general trajectory of U.S. foreign policy. In other areas, though, we fell short of the standards to which we hold ourselves, particularly in North Korea and in the marriage of convenience between