The World in 2021

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Introduction Our 2020 global forecast began as follows: Economic dysfunction will remain the main driver of the international system in 2020. Economic stress does not simply flow from whether the economy grows or declines by a percent. It arises from a shift in the pattern of economic behavior. This in turn affects social realities and leads to political instability. Growth may continue, but a dramatic slowdown in growth can have significant consequences. We forecast a slowing global economy. The most important dimension of the slowdown will be the increase in social instability, which was triggered by the 2008 financial crisis and ameliorated in recent years but will now accelerate. Internal tensions in many countries are already underway and will become more intense and less manageable in 2020. It was a fairly accurate forecast, save for the exclusion of a pandemic that we did not forecast but nonetheless brought the global economy to its knees. The forecast understated the degree to which the economy would decline and thus to which the social system would destabilize. COVID-19 was the primary driver of events in 2020, and that will continue to be the case in 2021. (click to enlarge) Economically detrimental as COVID-19 […]

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