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Geopolitical Forecasting

Analyzing the forces that drive nationsā€™ behavior

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  • Analyses
  • Forecasts

What We Provide

Our forecasts and George Friedmanā€™s books -The Next 100 Years (2009), The Next Decade (2011), Flashpoints (2015) ā€“ accurately predicted the economic and political crisis in the EU, the economic decline in China, the re-emergence of Russia in the mid 2010s, and the ensuing confrontation over Ukraine in 2014. We laid out what challenges the United States would face and in The Storm Before the Calm (2020) predicted that the 2020s would be a crisis decade for America. We write for the ā€œlearned publicā€: those who want to understand the world they live in and are citizens of every country.

Unbiased, Objective Reports

We give you a radically non-ideological perspective, based on a different view of the world. Our selection of whatā€™s important derives from geopolitical trends, not from the media or online chatter.

Intelligence Analysis

We use intelligence analysis to discover the small things that will define the future. Geopolitics defines the broad thrusts; intelligence analysis tracks its movements.

Successful Forecasting

Our forecasting model is based on the assumption that impersonal forces ā€“ things like geography, politics, economics, military capability and demography ā€“ govern world leaders, not the other way around. Itā€™s an important distinction you donā€™t see anywhere else.

Our Content

As a Geopolitical Futures subscriber, youā€™ll receive regular updates on whatā€™s important today and whatā€™s to come in the future. This includes real-time Briefs on the worldā€™s most pressing geopolitical events, daily in-depth Analysis from our global team of analysts, and a concise Daily Memo to give you exactly what is geopolitically important today.

– Brief –

View Samples

Brief: Serbia’s Show of Force to Kosovo

FREE
Background: Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia in 2008, less than 10 years after a NATO-led peacekeeping operation began there. Serbia, however, has yet...

Brief: Ukraine Wants to Buy an Iron Dome Battery

FREE
Background: Israel and Russia have developed a pragmatic and functional relationship on security as a result of the war in Syria. Russiaā€™s presence in...

Brief: A Prospective Israeli-Gulf Defense Alliance

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Background: Since last year, when Israel normalized relations with the Gulf states of Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, a Sunni Arab-Israeli alliance has...

– Analysis –

View Samples

The Future of NATOā€™s Strategic Concept

FREE
2022 will bring two major diplomatic events for the trans-Atlantic community. First, in March, the European Union will adopt its Strategic Compass, a document...

The Illusion of Arab Nationalism

FREE
The Arab uprisings briefly resurrected the idea of Arab nationalism. During the 2011 Pan Arab Games in Qatar, spectators sang the unofficial Arab national...

Turkeyā€™s Ambitious Plans for Africa

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For years, Turkey has pursued an ambitious agenda, expanding its influence in countries and regions formerly under Ottoman control. It may not be able...

Has Uzbekistanā€™s Time Finally Come?

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In our 2019 Annual Forecast, we said we expected Uzbekistan to challenge Kazakhstan as the dominant power in Central Asia. The COVID-19 pandemic delayed...

For Iran, Nuclear Weapons Can Wait

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The last two years have been the toughest for Iran since its 1979 revolution. Most Iranians have been negatively affected by Western sanctions as...

– Daily Memo –

View Samples

Daily Memo: US, UK, Australia Forge New Security Pact

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Joining forces. British, Australian and U.S. leaders announced a new security partnership for the Indo-Pacific on Wednesday. The trilateral ā€œAUKUSā€ program will focus on...

Daily Memo: Cyber Wars Can Become Hot Wars

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Bidenā€™s warning. U.S. President Joe Biden warned that cyberattacks could spark a shooting war. This followā€™s last weekā€™s launch of the U.S.-led multilateral cybersecurity...

Daily Memo: US Orders Supply Chain Review

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U.S. supply chain review. The White House ordered a comprehensive review of U.S. supply chain vulnerabilities related to overdependence on China. The process, which...

Daily Memo: Russian Demonstrations, Iranian Weapons

FREE
Navalny protest crackdown. More than 5,000 people were arrested over the weekend in another round of protests across Russia against the detention of opposition...

Forecasts

Geopolitical Forecasts

Geopolitical Futures predicts the actions nations will take based on global cycles and patterns of conflict. Our annual forecast highlights processes that will have lasting consequences and broad geopolitical impact.
Our forecast:

  1. Reveals the underlying forces driving global behavior
  2. Explains how the present fits into longer-term geopolitical processes
  3. Shows which countries are on the rise
  4. Anticipates shifts in the global economy and trade

Understanding Our Geopolitical Model

1
Information Collection

Extensive open-source information collection keeps us abreast of world events no matter how obscure. It draws from English and foreign language sources and includes traditional media as well as government, institutional and other primary source report from all over the world.

2
Strategic Intelligence

We make sense of the world by overlaying collected information with our model. Our model tells us how to expect a country to behave based on what it must have in order to remain secure, the limits imposed on it and the means at its disposal to take action.

3
Net Assessment

The net assessment is the current snapshot of a countryā€™s position and power at a particular moment in time.Ā  It reflects the realities facing a country in terms of what cannot be done and what must be done in the present, thereby enabling us to predict its future behavior.

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