We start this week’s installment by calling your attention to something we underestimated: the domestic turmoil in Iran. We (rightly) expected Iran to attempt to fill the vacuum created by the Islamic State’s defeat by building an arc of influence through the Arab world and into the Mediterranean. We failed to predict how badly the strategy would stress the Iranian public – and how much U.S.-led countermeasures would aggravate the situation. Our forecast on this issue can best be graded as “incomplete.” How Iran handles newly imposed sanctions will tell us whether we whiffed completely or were right not to pay attention to internal Iranian political drama. As always, we’ll let you know.
Until then, we present you with three very different forecasts this week. They include updates on NAFTA, the budding competition between China and Japan, and the way in which the U.S. would engage the Middle East. As you may have noticed, Europe has been conspicuously absent from the firs