Eurasia

US Bargaining With China and Russia

With the arrival of the second Trump administration, great power competition is at an inflection point. Both Russia and China face internal crises that...

2025 Forecast: Russia

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia, then a shell of its former self, was forced to spend the following decades restoring its...

Daily Memo: Turkey Considers Syrian Military Operation

Ankara's warning. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that his country could launch a joint military operation with the new administration in Syria if...

Smoke on the Water: Maritime Tension in 2025

For all the attention paid to the world’s many terrestrial conflicts – in Ukraine, the Palestinian Territories, Syria, Myanmar and elsewhere – tensions on...

The Reason for a Second Kursk Offensive

By Andrew Davidson Ukrainian forces have launched another offensive in Russia's Kursk region following their initial assault that began last year inside Russia. Back in...

Russia’s Tense Year Ahead

The Russian economy will be bad in 2025, at least according to Russian citizens. A newly published poll conducted by Levada suggests that nearly...

Russia’s Presence in Africa After Assad’s Fall in Syria

Bashar Assad’s ouster in Syria will likely have far-reaching consequences for close ally Russia, extending even into its operations in Africa. For decades, Syria...

How Russia Defends Its Baltic Lifeline

European authorities are pretty sure someone is deliberately cutting their undersea cables and scrambling ships’ navigation systems in the Baltic Sea, and they are...

What to Make of Georgia’s Protests

In December 2023, the European Council granted Georgia official candidate status for membership in the European Union, a result long favored by much of...

What Unrest in Abkhazia Means for Moscow

Protests erupted on Nov. 11 in the capital of Abkhazia, a Russian-backed breakaway region of Georgia. The demonstrations began in response to the detention...

Do the New Missiles in Ukraine Matter?

By Andrew Davidson On Nov. 17, the United States greenlit the use of Army Tactical Missile Systems in Ukraine. The stipulations of use and number...

Graphic Essay: Energy Market Volatility

For many countries, including major geopolitical players, energy resources rank among the most politically and economically sensitive commodities. Prices for these resources are shaped...

Daily Memo: Georgian Elections, British Military Reforms

Results are in. Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili vowed not to recognize the results of parliamentary elections held over the weekend that saw the governing...

BRICS Runs Into a Wall

For leaders such as Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, the annual BRICS summit is an excellent opportunity to present a vision of a world...

Middle Powers, Polarity and the International System

The great power competition currently underway has created space for second-tier states, or middle powers, to emerge as strong as ever. Alarmed by the...

Russia’s Strategy to Revitalize the CIS

Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted in Moscow the leaders of the other countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States. According to his...

Latest Posts

Central Asia is a highly strategic region traditionally trapped between several major powers but generally dominated by Russia, whose primary objective remains protecting the buffer zones that extend all the way to Eastern Europe.

The Russian government’s power depends on the security services, provision of economic incentives to a small group of elites and the acquiescence of the Russian population.

Ongoing regional and ethnic tensions threaten the unity of Central Asia and thus, sometimes, to the security of Russia.

Eurasia is highly exposed to Russia economically, especially when it comes to currencies, remittances and labor. Nevertheless, as the Russian economy weakens, partly due to the exporters’ crisis, its financial troubles are contributing to Central Asia’s slow destabilization.

While Russia is the dominant force, the economic slowdown in China, which is a major benefactor of much of Eurasia, is a major risk for Central Asian economies.

Regional Assessment of Russia

Regional Assessment of Central Asia

Required Reads: Eurasia

From our Forecast...

Russia will continue to conduct covert and non-military operations to take control and maintain control of its buffers.

Eurasia in our Memos

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Latest Posts

2025 Outlook for the Global Economy

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(click to enlarge) The World Bank has released its 2025 global growth forecast. The key takeaway is that global growth is stabilizing as inflation nears...

Daily Memo: EU Divided Over Russian Gas

Hungarian request. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban urged the European Union to press Ukraine to resume transit of Russian natural gas, threatening to block...

2025 Forecast: China

After the 2010s – a period of exceptional economic growth – China entered a major downturn caused by the collapse of the country’s crucial...

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