To read our full Net Assessment of Russia, click here.
Since Geopolitical Futures published its net assessment of Russia on Dec. 2, Russia’s fundamental strategy has not shifted, but the tactics Moscow uses to achieve its goals have evolved. At the same time, Moscow is continuing to grapple with the implications of low global energy prices for its economic and political stability, as well as defense priorities. Our long-term view is that Russia will weaken and the country’s internal unity will erode. A net assessment, however, focuses on the state of Russia at this moment. While Russia has options and remains a powerful actor in the region, it is facing a growing number of challenges.
Russia’s Strategic Goals and Evolving Tactics
Russia’s top national security priority is the status of Ukraine. For the Kremlin, Ukraine is a critical buffer zone and must become, at the very least, militarily neutral. Moreover, a growing U.S. and NATO military presence along the allianc