Eurasia

Russia’s Tense Year Ahead

The Russian economy will be bad in 2025, at least according to Russian citizens. A newly published poll conducted by Levada suggests that nearly...

Russia’s Presence in Africa After Assad’s Fall in Syria

Bashar Assad’s ouster in Syria will likely have far-reaching consequences for close ally Russia, extending even into its operations in Africa. For decades, Syria...

How Russia Defends Its Baltic Lifeline

European authorities are pretty sure someone is deliberately cutting their undersea cables and scrambling ships’ navigation systems in the Baltic Sea, and they are...

What to Make of Georgia’s Protests

In December 2023, the European Council granted Georgia official candidate status for membership in the European Union, a result long favored by much of...

What Unrest in Abkhazia Means for Moscow

Protests erupted on Nov. 11 in the capital of Abkhazia, a Russian-backed breakaway region of Georgia. The demonstrations began in response to the detention...

Do the New Missiles in Ukraine Matter?

By Andrew Davidson On Nov. 17, the United States greenlit the use of Army Tactical Missile Systems in Ukraine. The stipulations of use and number...

Graphic Essay: Energy Market Volatility

For many countries, including major geopolitical players, energy resources rank among the most politically and economically sensitive commodities. Prices for these resources are shaped...

Daily Memo: Georgian Elections, British Military Reforms

Results are in. Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili vowed not to recognize the results of parliamentary elections held over the weekend that saw the governing...

BRICS Runs Into a Wall

For leaders such as Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, the annual BRICS summit is an excellent opportunity to present a vision of a world...

Middle Powers, Polarity and the International System

The great power competition currently underway has created space for second-tier states, or middle powers, to emerge as strong as ever. Alarmed by the...

Russia’s Strategy to Revitalize the CIS

Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted in Moscow the leaders of the other countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States. According to his...

Russia’s Deliberately Unclear Strategy for Iran

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Readers have no doubt noticed that much of my writing over the past two-and-a-half years has focused on Russia. Some of the reasons for...

The Future of Drone Warfare

It’s been said for years that drones are the future of warfare. Their advantages are obvious: They are light and maneuverable and can deliver...

An Idiosyncratic View of Two Wars

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There are two major wars being fought. One, between Ukraine and Russia, has been raging for more than two and a half years but...

Russia Gets Tough on Migration

Russia understands that it’s approaching a demographic crisis. Problems such as falling birth rates would be difficult enough for Moscow to solve even if...

The Increase in Russian Military Forces

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Moscow’s announcement of a dramatic increase in the size of the Russian army by 180,000 new recruits appears to threaten a major increase in...

Latest Posts

Central Asia is a highly strategic region traditionally trapped between several major powers but generally dominated by Russia, whose primary objective remains protecting the buffer zones that extend all the way to Eastern Europe.

The Russian government’s power depends on the security services, provision of economic incentives to a small group of elites and the acquiescence of the Russian population.

Ongoing regional and ethnic tensions threaten the unity of Central Asia and thus, sometimes, to the security of Russia.

Eurasia is highly exposed to Russia economically, especially when it comes to currencies, remittances and labor. Nevertheless, as the Russian economy weakens, partly due to the exporters’ crisis, its financial troubles are contributing to Central Asia’s slow destabilization.

While Russia is the dominant force, the economic slowdown in China, which is a major benefactor of much of Eurasia, is a major risk for Central Asian economies.

Regional Assessment of Russia

Regional Assessment of Central Asia

From our Forecast...

Russia will continue to conduct covert and non-military operations to take control and maintain control of its buffers.

Eurasia in our Memos

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Latest Posts

EU Economy Shows Modest Improvement

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(click to enlarge) The EU economy is recovering modestly but still faces significant structural adjustments and external pressures. In the third quarter of 2024, gross...

Daily Memo: Militants Relocate to Afghanistan, US Accuses China of Equipping Houthis

Domino theory. Some fighters from a Uyghur militant group who helped overthrow the Syrian regime reportedly relocated to Afghanistan and have settled in Panjshir...

Trust Issues in China’s Military

There’s been another shakeup in China’s People’s Liberation Army. Beijing recently revoked the membership of two high-ranking military officials, You Haitao and Li Pengcheng,...

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