HomeFrom the Desk of George Friedman

From the Desk of George Friedman

To South Korea and Back Again

In mid-September, I will travel to Seoul, South Korea, for a week. The purpose will be to hold court, be lectured to, eat dinners and have late night drinks with people trying to find out what I know, while I try to find out what they know. I can’t count how many days and weeks […]

Nothing Has Changed With Taiwan

On Aug. 17, 1982, U.S. Secretary of State George Shultz sent a memo via an American diplomat to the Taiwanese government. On Monday, just...

The Crisis of the University and the Liberal Arts

In my book “The Storm Before the Calm,” I predicted that one of the main battles of the next cycle would be the future...

The Poisoning of Navalny

Alexei Navalny, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s highest-profile political opponent, remains alive in a German hospital after being poisoned in the Russian town of Tomsk....

Of Belarus, China and Watching a Perfect Game Pitched

There are moments in history when disparate global events combine to change the shape of the global system. People like me long for these...

Hiroshima and Moral Revisionism

Last week marked the 75th anniversary of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima, the first of two strikes on the Japanese mainland that forever changed...

The Geopolitics of the Belarusian Election

Belarus, whose recent elections are making waves throughout the media, has been a pending flashpoint in Europe for some time. The reasons for this...

Machiavelli, Adam Smith and the Limits of Power

Niccolo Machiavelli was deeply engaged in Florentine politics but, being forced into exile in 1513, was never as successful as he wished he were.

From a COVID-19 Recession to COVID-19 Depression?

It’s been roughly five months since COVID-19 lockdown measures were first put in place. That means that come September, we will have gone two...

Forecasting Russia: Strength and Weakness

Our forecast for Russia, dating back to my earliest books, was two-fold: first, that Russia would reassert itself and at least appear to be...

Racial Cycles

Slavery was the law of the land when the United States was founded, and it would take nearly a century, and a civil war,...

Dignity in Our Time

I went once to the funeral of a friend, a soldier. He had died an ordinary death, a car crash that left his parents...

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