GPF Team

What follows are the preliminary findings for issues identified in the daily Watch Lists this week. We are only sending findings that we regard as significant or potentially significant to keep this email manageable. We have findings for all the Watch List items. Should you be interested in findings not listed here, please contact us […]

Nov. 11, 2016 Will the new president change the U.S.’ trajectory?

Nov. 11, 2016 Donald Trump was a charismatic candidate for the presidency, and he will be a charismatic president.

Nov. 11, 2016 The Russian economy, which is heavily dependent on revenue from hydrocarbon exports, has suffered since oil prices began to drop in 2014. This chart shows Russian wage growth, interest rates and inflation from August 2015 to July 2016.

GDP per capita in Russia is down from an all-time high of $11,615 in 2013 to $11,038 in 2015. More than 2 million people fell into poverty in 2015 as wages fell by 9 percent. Inflation, which fell from 12.9 percent in December 2015 to 7.4 percent in March 2016, has been the most worrying indicator. As inflation dropped, the central bank resisted calls to cut the interest rate as nominal rages rose more than 5 percent in the first quarter, exceeding the rate of inflation for the first time since 2014.

Nov. 10, 2016 Great leaders did not make history. History made them.