Given recent events in the United States, we thought it might be useful to summarize some of the forecasts we made last December and try to show how Donald Trump’s election fits in. We, of course, didn’t forecast Trump’s election. Politics and elections are too unstable to forecast. The failure of most polls to anticipate the outcome is an example. However, our contention is that broader geopolitical trends are forecastable, and this will place Trump’s election in a geopolitical context drawn from our forecasts. Overall, this report concludes that Trump’s election does not disrupt our forecasts about the U.S.’ place in the world in the next 15 years, and even in some cases confirms that they are on track.
We have forecast that the U.S. is moving towards a balance of power strategy in the world where it eschews direct intervention in favor of reliance on allies and regional power structures.
This forecast has particular relevance for U.S. relations with