Daily Memo
What's Geopolitically Important Today

Daily Memo: Xi’s Opening Remarks, Critical Energy Situation in Cuba

Americas Geopolitical Futures -
Xi’s opening remarks. In opening statements marking the start of U.S. President Donald Trump’s...
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Middle East and North Africa

Ship Traffic Around Southern Africa Resurges

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Geopolitical Futures -
(click to enlarge) Tanker traffic around the Cape of Good Hope has surged to its highest levels since early 2025 as conflict in the Middle...
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Americas

Global Economic Trends

Geopolitical Futures -
(click to enlarge) Though global economic growth has stabilized since the 2020 pandemic meltdown, it remains below pre-pandemic averages and unevenly distributed across regions. After...
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Analysis

Hungary’s Landmark Election

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Geopolitical Futures -
(click to enlarge) Parliamentary elections in Hungary on April 12 marked an end to the 16-year rule of Viktor Orban and his Fidesz party. Peter...
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Middle East and North Africa

The Future of the Strait of Hormuz

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Geopolitical Futures -
(click to enlarge) The Strait of Hormuz is technically open but operationally constrained, functioning as a de facto Iranian-controlled bottleneck rather than a free transit...
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Denial Vs. Control in the Strait of Hormuz

AnalysisAndrew Davidson -
The debate surrounding the Strait of Hormuz tends to overlook a fairly obvious fact....
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Previewing the US-China Summit

AnalysisVictoria Herczegh -
Months of planning are about to culminate in U.S. President Donald Trump’s May 13-15...
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2025 Forecast:
The World Without an Anchor

The international order is about to get less orderly.

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The Week the New Global Reality Showed Itself

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AnalysisGeorge Friedman -
Last week, I wrote about the phone call Russian President Vladimir Putin made to...
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George Answers Your Questions: The Significance of the Trump-Putin Talks

AnalysisGeorge Friedman -
The Significance of the Trump-Putin Talks May 4, 2026 Question: Russian President Vladimir Putin wants only...
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What the UAE’s OPEC Exit Means for the Global Energy Market

AnalysisAntonia Colibasanu -
The United Arab Emirates’ decision to leave OPEC, effective May 1, was not an...
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Damage Control Ahead of Russia’s Elections

AnalysisEkaterina Zolotova -
The first days of May are traditionally difficult for Moscow drivers. With the arrival...
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From the Desk of George Frieman
George Friedman, Geopolitical Futures
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The Week the New Global Reality Showed Itself

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George Friedman -
Last week, I wrote about the phone call Russian President Vladimir Putin made to U.S. President Donald Trump, during which he proposed a new...
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The Storm Before the Calm

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The World in 2025

The international order is about to get less orderly.

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The Road to 2040

We look into the future and forecast what the world…

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The World in 2024

The coming year will revolve around what happens in the U.S., China and Russia – and between Israel and Hamas.

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Regional Directory

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Press Room

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US Bargaining With China and Russia

Analysis Kamran Bokhari -
With the arrival of the second Trump administration, great power competition is at an inflection point. Both Russia and China face internal crises that...
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American Naval Policy and China

Analysis George Friedman -
Editor’s note: If it feels as though the world is changing, that’s because it is. Global economic reconfiguration, demographic decline and geopolitical realignment have...
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Europe: The Agony and Ecstasy of US Relations

Analysis Antonia Colibasanu -
One of the most pressing geopolitical issues Europe faces is its evolving relationship with the United States. This relationship will be critical as Europe...
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George Answers Your Questions: The Significance of the Trump-Putin Talks

AnalysisGeorge Friedman -
The Significance of the Trump-Putin Talks May 4, 2026 Question: Russian President Vladimir Putin wants only a one-day ceasefire for his May 9 celebration, but there...
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Ship Traffic Around Southern Africa Resurges

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Middle East and North AfricaGeopolitical Futures -
(click to enlarge) Tanker traffic around the Cape of Good Hope has surged to its highest levels since early 2025 as conflict in the Middle...
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Daily Memo: Drone Attack in Russia, US-Brazil Talks

AmericasGeopolitical Futures -
Ukrainian attack. Several airports in southern Russia were forced to close on Friday after a Ukrainian drone hit the air traffic control center for...
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What the UAE’s OPEC Exit Means for the Global Energy Market

AnalysisAntonia Colibasanu -
The United Arab Emirates’ decision to leave OPEC, effective May 1, was not an isolated policy shift but the culmination of a deeper, decade-long...
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Daily Memo: Accelerating EU Decision-Making, US Counterterrorism Strategy

AnalysisGeopolitical Futures -
EU foreign policy. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul presented proposals to accelerate EU decision-making, particularly in foreign and security policy. Elements of the plan...
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George Friedman on Why Putin is Running Out of Time

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VideoGeopolitical Futures -
Is Putin looking to Trump for a lifeline? How does last week’s phone call between the leaders actually signal Russian weakness? On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss the geopolitical implications of the meeting, Russia’s economic deterioration and internal instability, and what a post-Putin Russia might look like. Also: US troop withdrawals and shifting global alliances.
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