Dec. 22, 2016 As the year comes to an close, we examine how our forecast for 2016 fared.
In December 2015, Geopolitical Futures published a forecast for 2016. It was our first annual forecast and covered the most significant developments we anticipated for the year. In July, we published our mid-year report card that tracked the progression of our most important predictions. Here, we provide our final evaluation of these forecasts. We believe it is important to evaluate our performance in our most pivotal role – forecasting.
You will notice that some items below have been given an NF (not forecast) score. The...
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Nov. 18, 2016 Sub-Sahara Africa’s natural resource deposits are a key feature that tie the region into mainstream geopolitics. Countries in the region have historically depended highly on export of raw materials, which fueled economic growth in industrialized economies.
This strong dependence on the sale of natural resources has also made many Sub-Sahara African countries very susceptible to the exporters’ crisis – both in terms of falling commodity prices and lower demand from major customers like China. Nigeria’s oil and gas sector accounts for about 35 percent of GDP, while hydrocarbons account for about 45 percent of Angola’s GDP. Oil and petrol account for 90-95 percent of exports in both countries. The price of other commodities, including gold, iron ore, platinum and copper, has remained low. Production of these materials figure prominently in the GDPs of South Africa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Zimbabwe, Zambia and Mozambique.