In December 2015, Geopolitical Futures published a forecast for 2016. It was our first annual forecast and covered the most significant developments we anticipated for the year. In July, we published our mid-year report card that tracked the progression of our most important predictions. Here, we provide our final evaluation of these forecasts. We believe it is important to evaluate our performance in our most pivotal role – forecasting.
You will notice that some items below have been given an NF (not forecast) score. These items are key events that happened throughout the year but were not included in our 2016 forecast for various reasons. These reasons are explained in detail below.
We have defined our grading system as follows:
A: Forecast fulfilled
B: Forecast on track but not yet fulfilled
C: No movement toward fulfillment but still likely or at least possible
D: Significant failure in forecast
F: Forecast wrong
NF: Not forecast
We present a