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Geopolitical Forecasting

Analyzing the forces that drive nationsā€™ behavior

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  • Forecasts

WELCOME

We write for the learned public: for those of you who want to understand the world you live in and are citizens of every country, for the public engaged in all walks of life. We believe that democracy can survive only if there is a segment of society that is not caught up in the passions of the moment, but is eager to look at the world as it is. I and my team may have our personal beliefs, but in our work we strive to be objective and indifferent to the opinions swirling around the world. We hope youā€™ll join us in our quest.

- George Friedman,
Founder, Geopolitical Futures

Our Commitment to You

Unbiased, Objective Reports

We give you a radically non-ideological perspective, based on a different view of the world. Our selection of whatā€™s important derives from geopolitical trends, not from the media or online chatter.

Intelligence Analysis

We use intelligence analysis to discover the small things that will define the future. Geopolitics defines the broad thrusts; intelligence analysis tracks its movements.

Successful Forecasting

Our forecasting model is based on the assumption that impersonal forces ā€“ things like geography, politics, economics, military capability and demography ā€“ govern world leaders, not the other way around. Itā€™s an important distinction you donā€™t see anywhere else.

Forecasts

Geopolitical Forecasts

Geopolitical Futures predicts the actions will take based on global cycles and patterns of conflict. Our annual forecast highlights processes that will have lasting consequences and broad geopolitical impact.
Our forecast:

  1. Reveals the underlying forces driving global behavior
  2. Explains how the present fits into longer-term geopolitical processes
  3. Shows which countries are on the rise
  4. Anticipates shifts in the global economy and trade

Our Content

As a Geopolitical Futures subscriber, youā€™ll receive regular updates on whatā€™s important today and whatā€™s to come in the future. This includes real-time Briefs on the worldā€™s most pressing geopolitical events, daily in-depth Analysis from our global team of analysts, and a concise Daily Memo to give you exactly what is geopolitically important today.

FREE Featured Content

Brief: Serbia’s Show of Force to Kosovo

FREE
Background: Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia in 2008, less than 10 years after a NATO-led peacekeeping operation began there. Serbia, however, has yet...

Daily Memo: US, UK, Australia Forge New Security Pact

FREE
Joining forces. British, Australian and U.S. leaders announced a new security partnership for the Indo-Pacific on Wednesday. The trilateral ā€œAUKUSā€ program will focus on...

The Future of NATOā€™s Strategic Concept

FREE
2022 will bring two major diplomatic events for the trans-Atlantic community. First, in March, the European Union will adopt its Strategic Compass, a document...

Podcast: Talking Geopolitics

FREE Featured Content

Daily Memo: Moscow’s North Korea Connections, Russia-Kazakhstan Deal on Oil Exports

Russia and North Korea. The director of Russiaā€™s Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshkin, visited...

Jihadists Exploit US Conflicts with Russia and Iran

Five years after losing the last stronghold of its defunct caliphate in the Levant,...

George Friedman

For the US, 2024 Isnā€™t 1973

FREE
The culture of the Israeli military was shaped in October 1973, when Egypt and...

America Approaches the Crisis

FREE
We have recently discussed China's problems, Russia's ability to defeat Ukraine, the economic condition...

Understanding Our Geopolitical Model

1
Information Collection

Extensive open-source information collection keeps us abreast of world events no matter how obscure. It draws from English and foreign language sources and includes traditional media as well as government, institutional and other primary source report from all over the world.

2
Strategic Intelligence

We make sense of the world by overlaying collected information with our model. Our model tells us how to expect a country to behave based on what it must have in order to remain secure, the limits imposed on it and the means at its disposal to take action.

3
Net Assessment

The net assessment is the current snapshot of a countryā€™s position and power at a particular moment in time.Ā  It reflects the realities facing a country in terms of what cannot be done and what must be done in the present, thereby enabling us to predict its future behavior.

Understand the Issues That Are Shaping the World's Future

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    Includes Podcasts+ and a Map room

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