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Geopolitical Forecasting

Analyzing the forces that drive nations’ behavior

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What is Geopolitics and Why Does it Matter?

An Introduction to Geopolitics and How it Impacts Our Lives

Geopolitics can be explained as the framework used to see the complex characteristics of the world we live in today. This considers the political, economic, military, and geographic dimensions that shape the behaviors, decisions, and actions of a nation. Geopolitics is used to illustrate how countries, regions, businesses, terrorist groups, and other parties seeking power try to reach their political goals by controlling geographic features of the world. We refer to these features as “Geographical Entities”. These are the regions, territories, places, scales, and networks that make up the world.

Geography plays a key role in Geopolitics. It influences the policies countries create to advance their interests and in many instances are based on the common good for all involved. This can include agreements and treaties between nations to harness peace and goodwill between each country, region, or territorial group. There are also geopolitical policies designed to increase power in one group’s favor over another. The pursuit of influence and power in these scenarios are often used to rationalize conflict and war. Countries use geopolitical policies to negotiate trade, business, balancing power over regions, immigration, cultural and media influence, pollution, education, and more.

Geopolitics, geopolitical entities, geopolitical policies, and the events and outcomes across the globe all play an intricate part in our daily lives. At Geopolitical Futures we provide objective and indifferent Geopolitical Analysis, Intelligence, and Forecasting to help you stay in the know. Helping you evaluate Geopolitical Risk for your business or financial strategy or provide Geopolitical News to help better inform you and your family’s lives for tomorrow. Subscribe today and receive a Free Special Report. Or join ClubGPF for exclusive content including daily Geopolitical Analysis, Forecast Insights, Special Reports, Forums, and Bi-Weekly Video discussions with internationally renowned geopolitical strategist and best-selling author, George Friedman and our GPF Analyst Team.

 Your Source for Geopolitical Forecasting


From George Friedman’s Best Selling book:

The Next 100 Years

(published 2009)

For the next generation until roughly 2020, Russia’s primary concern will be reconstructing the Russian state and reasserting Russian power in the region… The Russians must dominate Belarus and Ukraine for their basic national security… If they were to fall into an enemy’s hands –for example, join NATO- Russia would be in mortal danger.

Know What’s Ahead:

The Road to 2040

Geopolitical Futures, The Road to 2040

Geopolitical Futures predicts the actions nations will take based on global cycles and patterns of conflict. Our forecasts highlight processes that will have lasting consequences and broad geopolitical impact.

Our forecast:

  1. Reveals the underlying forces driving global behavior
  2. Explains how the present fits into longer-term geopolitical processes
  3. Shows which countries are on the rise
  4. Anticipates shifts in the global economy and trade


Unbiased, Objective Reports

We give you a radically non-ideological perspective, based on a different view of the world. Our selection of what’s important derives from geopolitical trends, not from the media or online chatter.

Intelligence Analysis

We use intelligence analysis to discover the small things that will define the future. Geopolitics defines the broad thrusts; intelligence analysis tracks its movements.

Successful Forecasting

Our forecasting model is based on the assumption that impersonal forces – things like geography, politics, economics, military capability and demography – govern world leaders, not the other way around. It’s an important distinction you don’t see anywhere else.

We write for the learned public: for those of you who want to understand the world you live in and are citizens of every country, for the public engaged in all walks of life. We believe that democracy can survive only if there is a segment of society that is not caught up in the passions of the moment, but is eager to look at the world as it is. I and my team may have our personal beliefs, but in our work we strive to be objective and indifferent to the opinions swirling around the world. We hope you’ll join us in our quest.

- George Friedman,
Founder, Geopolitical Futures

Our Content

As a Geopolitical Futures subscriber, you’ll receive regular updates on what’s important today and what’s to come in the future. This includes daily in-depth Analysis from our global team of analysts, and a concise Daily Memo to give you exactly what is geopolitically important today.

FREE Featured Content

The Euro-American Shift

There are certain pressures that reverberate throughout the globe that can manifest in different realms, including the economy, the military and the legal system....

Closing the Darien Gap

(click to enlarge) Since 2010, the number and country of origin of migrants passing through the Darien Gap have changed dramatically. According to Panama’s national...

Podcast: Talking Geopolitics

 Subscriber-only Analysis 

Daily Memo: Houthi Presence in Iraq, Solomon Island Leader in Beijing

Iraqi connections. Yemen’s Houthi rebels reportedly opened an office in Baghdad. The group apparently...

US, Panama Mind the Darien Gap

The Darien Gap – once considered little more than a narrow, impenetrable jungle along...

George Friedman

The Euro-American Shift

There are certain pressures that reverberate throughout the globe that can manifest in different realms, including the economy, the...

Herrings and the Courts

Devoted readers will recall what I wrote in my most recent book, “The Storm Before the Calm,” and in...

Understanding Our Geopolitical Model

Information Collection

Extensive open-source information collection keeps us abreast of world events no matter how obscure. It draws from English and foreign language sources and includes traditional media as well as government, institutional and other primary source report from all over the world.

Strategic Intelligence

We make sense of the world by overlaying collected information with our model. Our model tells us how to expect a country to behave based on what it must have in order to remain secure, the limits imposed on it and the means at its disposal to take action.

Net Assessment

The net assessment is the current snapshot of a country’s position and power at a particular moment in time.  It reflects the realities facing a country in terms of what cannot be done and what must be done in the present, thereby enabling us to predict its future behavior.

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For the past few years I have found your firms daily updates, supplemented by your personal analyses to be invaluable. The opportunity to learn about our world is a gift. Thank you, for your information, and more importantly for your insights.

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As always, thank you for your work. The most important thing by far you have given me is a better paradigm for framing and understanding world events. For that I will always be grateful.


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