The items listed below represent potential emerging issues that our analysts are tracking. These can be long term or short term, but will be updated daily. If an item on our Watch List becomes critical, we will email you a full analysis explaining its significance.
Each Saturday, we will follow up our daily Watch List for each week with our conclusions on these issues.
Iraq: The coalition led by Muqtada al-Sadr is set to win Iraq’s parliamentary election. Al-Sadr is a Shiite cleric but says he will form a technocratic, non-partisan government. And though he was supported by Iran during the U.S. occupation, al-Sadr also claims to now have his own Iraqi nationalist agenda independent of Iran. Even if his coalition is as anti-Iran has he claims, Iraqi politics is much too complex to pigeonhole anyone with a fixed position, and indeed al-Sadr has a history of shifting loyalties as necessary. Iran may not like the current outcome, but it beats having a power vacuum in Baghdad t