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Watch List: Jan. 4, 2018

Iran’s protests declared over, Yemeni supply route cut off

|January 4, 2018

The items listed below represent potential emerging issues that our analysts are tracking. These can be long term or short term, but will be updated daily. If an item on our Watch List becomes critical, we will email you a full analysis explaining its significance.

Each Saturday, we will follow up our daily Watch List for each week with our conclusions on these issues.

  • Iran: The head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard declared the end of anti-government protests in Iran. Meanwhile, the Russian government accused the U.S. of using the situation to undermine the Iran nuclear deal and warned the United States not to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs. Is there any evidence that the protests are not over? Is there any sign that the U.S. is trying to use the protests as an excuse to cancel the nuclear deal?
  • Saudi Arabia: The Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen cut one of the Yemeni government forces’ main supply routes. How important is this route?
  • EU: The European Union sharply criticized the U.S. embargo on Cuba and called for a new beginning in relations. What spurred these comments? What are the EU’s main interests in the region?
  • Russia: The Russian Ministry of Defense denied a report by Russian newspaper Kommersant that seven of its military aircraft were destroyed in Syria. The ministry did confirm, however, that one of its air bases was targeted in a mortar attack on Dec. 31. What do we know about the source of Kommersant’s report? If it wasn’t true, why would Kommersant report it? If it was true, why did the Defense Ministry deny it?
  • Poland: Poland intends to train 30,000 military reservists in 2018. How do these numbers compare to last year? What, if anything, does it say about Poland’s military strategy?
  • Pakistan: The Pakistani navy has successfully tested the Harbah, a surface-to-surface naval cruise missile. How worried should India be? What does the test tell us about Pakistan’s military intentions in the region?

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