The items listed below represent potential emerging issues that our analysts are tracking. These can be long term or short term, but will be updated daily. If an item on our Watch List becomes critical, we will email you a full analysis explaining its significance.
Each Saturday, we will follow up our daily Watch List for each week with our conclusions on these issues.
Iran, Turkey: A Turkish military outpost in Syria’s Idlib province was reportedly attacked, leaving one soldier dead and five injured. Some reports suggest Iranian-backed militias are responsible. Meanwhile, Syrian Kurds, whom the Turks oppose, are believed to have arrived in Afrin after reaching an agreement with the Syrian government, an Iranian ally. Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani, has criticized Turkey publicly, calling it “unprincipled and fruitless.” We did not expect Iran and Turkey to clash directly in 2018. Should we reconsider? Before we do, we need to verify the above reports.