The items listed below represent potential emerging issues that our analysts are tracking. These can be long term or short term, but will be updated daily. If an item on our Watch List becomes critical, we will email you a full analysis explaining its significance.
Each Saturday, we will follow up our daily Watch List for each week with our conclusions on these issues.
- Armenia-Russia: Reports in the Armenian media have questioned the advantages of Armenia joining the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union, pointing to Russia’s declining economy. A reduction in remittances from Armenians working in Russia is reportedly one of the causes of Armenia’s socio-economic problems. We need to see whether this is causing a rise in anti-Russian sentiments in Armenia or if internal politics are driving the rhetoric.
- Russia: The Russian State Duma adopted a law giving servicemen an opportunity to sign up for short-term contracts. This will facilitate troop mobility. We need to look into the drivers for such a law. They potentially include increasing effectiveness for anti-terrorist operations, increasing international deployment abilities and economic constraints.
- India: The Reserve Bank of India has introduced new limits on cash deposits of demonetized notes. We need to look into the reasons for this and the potential effects of the new rules.
- Iran: Iran has stationed five military units in the southeastern desert area of the country to repel possible attacks. We need to examine the reasons for this decision.
- Syria: Several villages held by the Islamic State have been captured by the Syrian Democratic Forces, part of the anti-IS coalition’s advance toward Raqqa. We need to determine the importance of these advances, considering that fighting has resumed in Palmyra. We need to also look into where IS’ attack on Palmyra and Tiyas air base stands at the moment.
- Germany: German business confidence has risen higher than expected in December. We need to check the basis for this confidence. Let’s determine whether this will hold or whether this is another seasonal indicator.
- Russia-Turkey: Russia’s ambassador to Turkey, Andrei Karlov, was killed in a gun attack at an art gallery in Ankara. Let’s keep an eye on the situation to see who was responsible.