The items listed below represent potential emerging issues that our analysts are tracking. These can be long term or short term, but will be updated daily. If an item on our Watch List becomes critical, we will email you a full analysis explaining its significance. Each Saturday, we will follow up our daily Watch List for each week with our conclusions on these issues. Aug. 17, 2016 Ukraine: The Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s main intelligence directorate has warned of an imminent Russian provocation in the east. It is the second time in the last seven days that they have issued a warning on this. Is there any reason to think Ukraine is right about this, or are they just making something out of nothing? Ukraine: On the other hand, Ukraine has apparently announced a restructuring of part of its military, eliminating over 100 generals in the State Border Guard Service and the National Guard, among others. This contradicts the notion that the Russians are about to wage war – imminent war is not the time to revamp command structure. This is an oddity we must understand. Russia: President Vladimir Putin is going to visit Crimea on Aug. 19. What does this […]

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