Sometimes, a quiet week can go by without much happening that affects our model. Other times, like today, we get confirmations on three separate parts of our forecast. In Germany, manufacturing data for April missed Reuters’ targets by 1.5 percent. In China, Goldman Sachs seems to have realized what we have long been saying: China’s growth rates, which fell to under 7 percent last year, are fueled by debt and are not sustainable. In Central Asia, a spate of incidents in Kazakhstan, headlined by a shadowy coup allegation, warrant a second look. These are all crucial points related to our 2016 forecast, and we will address each succinctly.
Geopolitical Futures has forecast a crisis in Germany – what happens here is central to Europe’s future. In a special report for Mauldin Economics published last month, we explained in great detail why we expect Germany’s export-dependent economy to struggle with reduced global demand for its goods.
Today, Germany’s Federa