Specificity is rarely a luxury geopolitics affords. Broad, impersonal forces that shape the behavior of nations are usually, by definition, long-term phenomena. Imagine, then, how validating it was this week when our forecast on NAFTA, one of our most discrete predictions, came to pass. To recap: We said a free trade agreement would survive, one way or another, because the political constraints, economic linkages and strategic needs of all three countries demanded that it would. So it did, enduring in spirit but replaced in name by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
From the Forecast: “The problems Europe has dealt with for the past 10 years – problems that were not so much created by the 2008 financial crisis but exposed by it – will continue to intensify in 2018. Virtually no country will be left untouched by the rising social, political, cultural and economic tensions throughout the Continent. But under this continued instability will lurk a perhaps more troubli
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