I’ve now shared three fragments of my next book on geopolitics with GPF readers. One on philosophy and geopolitics, one on historical determinism and one outlining a new geopolitical model for the current global system. The first intrigued readers and the third left you cold. But the second raised hackles, so it’s the second I will focus on here. It’s clear that I will need to be careful with the book’s section on determinism – I thank you for the warning.
The core issue of geopolitical determinism is the degree to which individual leaders control events. My argument is that leaders have some influence on secondary issues, but they are trapped on the primary ones. It is easier to make this case by example (although no single example is sufficient, and a coherent theory has to evolve). Let me use the case of the U.S.-Japanese conflict in 1941-45 to try to show you how it was inevitable regardless of who led these countries at the time.
The United States, situated as it i
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