Response to Comments: On Leadership and Necessity

George Friedman |March 14, 2019

I’ve now shared three fragments of my next book on geopolitics with GPF readers. One on philosophy and geopolitics, one on historical determinism and one outlining a new geopolitical model for the current global system. The first intrigued readers and the third left you cold. But the second raised hackles, so it’s the second I will focus on here. It’s clear that I will need to be careful with the book’s section on determinism – I thank you for the warning.

The core issue of geopolitical determinism is the degree to which individual leaders control events. My argument is that leaders have some influence on secondary issues, but they are trapped on the primary ones. It is easier to make this case by example (although no single example is sufficient, and a coherent theory has to evolve). Let me use the case of the U.S.-Japanese conflict in 1941-45 to try to show you how it was inevitable regardless of who led these countries at the time.

The United States, situated as it i

SPRING SALE OFFER!

Get full access for just

$49 for 6 months

This offer ends March 29th

Get full access now:

Download as PDF or get access to all In-Depth Content

Over 10,000 Premium Readers

Download the article PDF format, full-color
$9.99
One Month Introductory Offer One month for $9.99, then $39 quarterly
$9.99
Subscribe
3 Months Introductory Offer Three months for $29, then $35 quarterly
$29
Subscribe
Response to Comments: On Leadership and Necessity

Reader feedback

“I want to thank you for all your writing. Your look at history--causes, motivations, effects--is so astounding against the mainstream dates, events, and bias. I read as much of your site as I can, but I most of all love the look at history. Nobody has as profound a look at American & European history, or WWII. You are peerless.” Christopher T. of Raleigh, NC
“The material is always well-written, and is very useful for understanding the significance of important issues developing across the world.” Beckett T. of Washington
“Geopolitical Futures' insights are mind-blowing. Their analyses never fail to distill order from the jumble of current events. No other publication comes close to the caliber of Geopolitical Futures' forecasts.” Bill S. of California
“Your emails is my best link to understanding what is going on in the world's hot spots without the extreme typical media bias. Keep up the great work. Thanks for your considerable efforts.” David H.
“Geopolitical Futures is unparalleled for open source analysis. It's like they have a crystal ball. I'm jealous of George Friedman's ability to effectively communicate such a complex world in such relatively simple terms. I'd pay far more money than I am now to keep this service. I feel like I'm stealing.” Dominic F. of Virginia
“Your analysis is thought-provoking and informative. I am a geopolitical hobbyist, but I also use your information to manage my retirement portfolio. I love your cogent, dispassionate analysis. Kudos to you.” Kevin A of Maryland
“I was an Economist subscriber. No longer. I find your articles insightful, easy to read, and only takes few minutes a day to stay informed. Bravo!” Pat G.
“The best analysis out there, by far. As a geopolitical analyst, you guys are an inspiration, a reference and a constant motivation for improvement. Thanks for the rigour and the high quality you deliver in all of your work!” Ricky M. of Panama
“I think you doing an excellent job keeping people informed about global trends. You are doing analysis in a timely manner for events across the globe which is challenging task. Keep up the good work!” Nicolae C. of Romania
“The insights that you offer often go against "conventional wisdom" and conformist views. However, more often than not, your profound assessments and forecasts, which stem from a deep understanding of a wide range of associated dynamics, have turned out to be correct with passage of time. It is for these reasons that I invest in your work.” K Singh of India
“One of the vanishingly few analysis publishers that try to understand the current situation in light of local, regional and international facts and historical events, with no discernible bias, a transparent effort to overcome cognitive bias, and refreshing willingness to go against the current when seeking to shed light on events.” Ian W. of Paraguay

Get full access now:

Download as PDF or get access to all In-Depth Content

Over 10,000 Premium Readers

Download the article PDF format, full-color
$9.99
One Month Introductory Offer One month for $9.99, then $39 quarterly
$9.99
Subscribe
3 Months Introductory Offer Three months for $29, then $35 quarterly
$29
Subscribe
Response to Comments: On Leadership and Necessity