Daily Memo
What's Geopolitically Important Today

Daily Memo: Oil Markets and Shipping Disruptions

Relief ahead? Member countries of the International Energy Agency unanimously agreed to release 400...

Disrupted Oil Operations in the Persian Gulf

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(click to enlarge) Though oil prices have surged since the start of fighting in the Middle East, investors are still hopeful that the war will...

The Chokepoint at the Center of the US-Iran Standoff

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(click to enlarge) Brent crude prices have risen modestly in recent weeks, climbing into the low $70s after several months of relative stability. The move...

Global Growth Expected to Slow in 2026

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(click to enlarge) According to the World Bank's Global Economic Prospects report, the global economy in 2025 demonstrated greater resilience than expected, given trade tensions...

Threats to New US-Canada Bridge

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(click to enlarge) Canada finds itself in a difficult position when it comes to its two largest trading partners, the U.S. and China. Ottawa and...

The Eclipse of the Islamic Republic

U.S. President Donald Trump last week demanded an unconditional Iranian surrender to end the...

In Iran, Airpower Has Its Limits

Modern warfare increasingly assumes that control of air and space decides the outcomes of...
2025 Forecast:
The World Without an Anchor

The international order is about to get less orderly.

George Answers Your Questions: First Thoughts on the Attack on Iran

First Thoughts on the Attack on Iran March 1, 2026 A message on how we are...

China’s Strategic Restraint in the Iran War

Despite the outbreak of war in the Middle East, high-level U.S. and Chinese trade...

Russia’s Limited Gains From the Middle East War

The war in the Middle East and resulting restrictions on hydrocarbon supplies through the...

Iran After the War

U.S. President Donald Trump said March 3 that he thinks a "more moderate," popular...
From the Desk of George Frieman
George Friedman, Geopolitical Futures
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A Summary of the Iran War, So Far

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Wars can be viewed by historians later, but while they are raging and facts and lies compete for attention, it’s hard to understand what’s...

The Storm Before the Calm

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The World in 2025

The international order is about to get less orderly.

The Road to 2040

We look into the future and forecast what the world…

The World in 2024

The coming year will revolve around what happens in the U.S., China and Russia – and between Israel and Hamas.

Read our annual or long term forecasts.

Regional Directory

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Press Room

US Bargaining With China and Russia

With the arrival of the second Trump administration, great power competition is at an inflection point. Both Russia and China face internal crises that...

American Naval Policy and China

Editor’s note: If it feels as though the world is changing, that’s because it is. Global economic reconfiguration, demographic decline and geopolitical realignment have...

Europe: The Agony and Ecstasy of US Relations

One of the most pressing geopolitical issues Europe faces is its evolving relationship with the United States. This relationship will be critical as Europe...

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All over the world, there are institutions that share our enthusiasm for geopolitics. Sometimes they even share our written work with their readers, so it’s only fair that we return the favor. Enter our Partners page, where we occasionally reprint pieces from these institutions free of charge for our subscribers. The views contained herein are those of the authors and do not represent those of GPF and its staff.

Trending Content

Daily Memo: Azerbaijan Enters the Fray

Fighting spreads to the Caucasus. Iranian drones struck the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan on Thursday. Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defense said unmanned aerial vehicles from...

Russia’s Limited Gains From the Middle East War

The war in the Middle East and resulting restrictions on hydrocarbon supplies through the Strait of Hormuz appear to be working in Russia’s favor....

Daily Memo: Kurdish Engagement in Iran, US Warns Spain

Opposition groups. The CIA is reportedly working to arm Kurdish forces in the hopes of inspiring a popular uprising against the Iranian government. According...

Iran After the War

U.S. President Donald Trump said March 3 that he thinks a "more moderate," popular figure who is already part of Iran's regime would be...

Daily Memo: Update on the Strait of Hormuz and Chances of a Ground Operation

Shipping disruption. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced Monday that the Strait of Hormuz is closed. An adviser to the IRGC commander-in-chief said the...

Economic Implications of the Iran Attacks

The economic fallout from U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran is starting to take shape. Iranian state media and senior officials from the Islamic...