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Briefs

Brief: Serbia’s Show of Force to Kosovo

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Background: Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia in 2008, less than 10 years after a NATO-led peacekeeping operation began there. Serbia, however, has yet...

Brief: The UK and the USMCA

Background: The post-Brexit United Kingdom is still trying to define its new role in the international system. London has been trying to replace the...

Featured

Europe’s Exposure to Turkey’s Problems

For well over a year, Turkey has been projecting an image of itself that is out of sync with the reality at home. It...

China and India Are Still Rivals

By Andrew Davidson In late October, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping met on the sidelines of the BRICS assembly in...

Romania’s Shock Election Puts NATO’s Eastern Flank in Play

The first casualty of Romania’s presidential election was the opinion polls – none of which proved accurate. The second might be the country’s post-communist...

Japan’s Curious Calls for an Asian NATO

Starting next year, the U.S., Japanese and Australian militaries will conduct trilateral amphibious training in northern Australia, marking the first deployment of Japanese troops...

Bad Timing for a German Government Collapse

Germany – the political and economic heart of the European Union – is in the throes a major political crisis. Earlier this month, Chancellor...

Trump and the Elusive Middle Eastern Balance of Power

Much of the public discussion about U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s forthcoming strategy for the Middle East, especially in light of the nominees to his...

What Unrest in Abkhazia Means for Moscow

Protests erupted on Nov. 11 in the capital of Abkhazia, a Russian-backed breakaway region of Georgia. The demonstrations began in response to the detention...

Do the New Missiles in Ukraine Matter?

By Andrew Davidson On Nov. 17, the United States greenlit the use of Army Tactical Missile Systems in Ukraine. The stipulations of use and number...

Qatar’s Adaptive Foreign Policy

The modern history of Qatar began in the 18th century with the settlement of Arab tribes along the Persian Gulf coast. It soon became...

It’s Hard to Quit the USMCA

Danielle Smith, the premier of Canada's province of Alberta, urged the federal Canadian government on Nov. 17 to adopt separate bilateral free trade agreements...

Trump’s Place in US Political Cycles

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As I wrote in my most recent book, “The Storm Before the Calm,” we tend to use presidencies as benchmarks to help us locate...

In Latin America, Casualties of Trade War

International trade is among the gravest concerns of world leaders as they prepare for another Trump presidency. The president-elect has promised to impose tariffs...

For Saudi Arabia, Iran Is Still a Threat

Iran’s entry into the Arab world was always going to result in a conflict with Israel, but, despite claims to the contrary, Iran was...

What We're Reading

What We’re Reading: Trade and the Ancient World

The Roman Empire and the Silk Routes: The Ancient World Economy and the Empires of Parthia, Central Asia and Han China By Raoul McLaughlin “The Roman...

What We’re Reading: All About Europe

Europe's Future: Decoupling and Reforming By Sergio Fabbrini Sergio Fabbrini is easily one of the most important political scientists studying EU governance. His essays are required...

What We’re Reading: Silence and Sleep

The Silence By Don DeLillo Last week, a bunch of us Texans prepared for the worst as a winter storm pelted our homes with freezing rain...

What We’re Reading: Robots and Russian Heroes

Burn-In: A Novel of the Real Robotic Revolution By August Cole and P.W. Singer The plot of “Burn-In” is … fine. Written by the same duo...

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Trump’s Place in US Political Cycles

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As I wrote in my most recent book, “The Storm Before the Calm,” we tend to use presidencies as benchmarks to help us locate...
George Friedman’s new book:
The Storm Before the Calm

The Storm before the Calm“Who will win the acrimonious 2020 presidential election? Shockingly, it won’t actually matter that much, argues renowned geopolitical forecaster George Friedman. America, he contends, is governed less by leaders and legislation and more by cyclical forces that work deep within the nation’s unique structure.”
Lone Star Literary Life

Daily Memo: More Corruption Allegations in Beijing, Putin Visits Kazakhstan

Chinese crackdown. Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun has been placed under investigation over allegations of corruption, The Financial Times reported. Dong, who was appointed...

Media / Interviews

Daily Memo: German Job Cuts, Iran Nuclear Talks

Cutting costs. German car parts manufacturer Bosch said it plans to cut 3,800 jobs in Germany by the end of 2027 to reduce costs in an increasingly competitive market. The company will eliminate 5,550 jobs in total, with more cuts to come after 2027, and plans to make significant investments in new technologies. Meanwhile, Volkswagen told Germany’s Welt am Sonntag newspaper that despite criticism from workers’ unions it would move ahead with plans to close three factories, which will result in thousands of lost jobs. Moving ahead. The deputy foreign ministers from Iran, France, Germany and Britain will meet on Nov. 29, a spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry said. The representative added that they will discuss regional and international issues, including the situation in the Palestinian territories and Lebanon, as well as Iran’s nuclear program. Citing diplomatic sources, Japan’s Kyodo news agency reported that Tehran wants to reach a deal to break the impasse over its nuclear activities before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20. Israel update. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly approved a U.S.-backed cease-fire deal with Hezbollah “in principle.” The agreement is not final, as some details are still being worked out. This comes after the U.S. special envoy to the Middle East, Amos Hochstein, apparently told the Israeli government over the weekend that the Biden administration would give up its efforts to reach a cease-fire if it did not accept the terms of the current deal. Relatedly, the commander of the U.S. Army’s Central Command, Erik Kurilla, arrived in Israel on Friday, for talks with the chief of the Israeli army’s General Staff. Clashes in Turkey. Protesters and police clashed after the mayors of two towns in Turkey’s eastern province of Tunceli were jailed for allegedly having links to the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party. Residents in the majority Kurdish towns set fires in the streets as police used tear gas and water cannons to disperse the crowds. The mayors were sentenced to six years in prison and replaced in their roles by trustees. Contingency plans. The U.S. will deploy missile units to Japan’s southwestern Nansei island chain and the Philippines if there is a confrontation around Taiwan, Japan’s Kyodo news agency reported. According to the story, temporary bases would be set up on uninhabited islands on the island chain, and the Japan Self-Defense Force will provide logistical support as part of a contingency plan between the U.S. and Japan to respond to a potential crisis. Iranian objections. Iran sent a note of protest over the weekend to Russia’s Foreign Ministry over the detention of two Iranian students in the Russian city of Kazan. Their arrests reportedly followed a fight that erupted among a group of students waiting at a local visa extension office. The Iranians were allegedly involved in the brawl and beaten by Russian police before being arrested. Unprepared. Ukraine’s ambassador to the U.K. said Europe is not ready for a prolonged war with Russia. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, who is also the former commander in chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, said in a new interview with the Ukrainska Pravda news outlet that his country has been the target of 3,000 Russian missiles this month, and that Britain and every other country in Europe are not prepared for such an onslaught. Transport news. ADY Express, a subsidiary of Azerbaijan Railways, signed several cooperation agreements to promote development of the Middle Corridor transport route on the sidelines of a logistics exhibition in Istanbul. The documents include a memorandum of strategic partnership with China-based Neptune Logistics and an agreement with Turkish transport firm Pasifik Eurasia. Drills between neighbors. Azerbaijan and Iran launched four-day joint military exercises in Iran’s Ardabil province. The drills, which involve special forces units from both countries’ militaries, are aimed at strengthening relations, combatting illegal armed organizations and enhancing border security. India's arms industry. India has delivered the first batch of Pinaka multiple-launch rocket systems to Armenia, India’s ANI news agency reported. The two countries signed a deal on the supply of the weapons two years ago after lengthy negotiations.

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Daily Memo: Iraq and Israel Trade Warnings, Swedish Probe Into ‘Sabotage’ Incident

Baghdad's concerns. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani said a letter sent to the U.N. Security Council by Israel could be a “pretext for...

What Unrest in Abkhazia Means for Moscow

Protests erupted on Nov. 11 in the capital of Abkhazia, a Russian-backed breakaway region of Georgia. The demonstrations began in response to the detention...

Do the New Missiles in Ukraine Matter?

By Andrew Davidson On Nov. 17, the United States greenlit the use of Army Tactical Missile Systems in Ukraine. The stipulations of use and number...

Daily Memo: Lebanon Cease-fire Progress, UK-India Trade Talks

Light at the end. Lebanon and Hezbollah reached a common position on a U.S.-backed cease-fire proposal with Israel and submitted their feedback to the...

Special Report:

The Geopolitics of Donald Trump

“There are those who regard Donald Trump as too stupid to make decisions. There are others who regard him as a brilliant if instinctive crafter of policy. What we know of him is this. "

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The World in 2020

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