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Briefs

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Brief: Serbia’s Show of Force to Kosovo

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Geopolitical Futures -
Background: Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia in 2008, less than 10 years after a NATO-led peacekeeping operation began there. Serbia, however, has yet...
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Brief: The UK and the USMCA

Geopolitical Futures -
Background: The post-Brexit United Kingdom is still trying to define its new role in the international system. London has been trying to replace the...
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Featured

Europe’s Exposure to Turkey’s Problems

Analysis Ekaterina Zolotova -
For well over a year, Turkey has been projecting an image of itself that is out of sync with the reality at home. It...

Recent Analysis

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The Paradox of Russian Gas Sanctions

AnalysisEkaterina Zolotova -
More than two years after the introduction of sanctions meant to curb Russia’s hydrocarbons revenue, Europe is still buying significant amounts of Russian natural...
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The Houthis and the Israel-Iran Conflict

AnalysisKamran Bokhari -
Israeli warplanes needed just under three hours on July 21 to travel 1,800 kilometers (1,100 miles) to their targets in Yemen’s port city of...
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The US Makes Its Own Semiconductor Supply Chains

AmericasAllison Fedirka -
The semiconductor business is booming. According to estimates published in 2023 by consulting firm McKinsey & Company, the semiconductor market will exceed $1 trillion...
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Turkey’s Uphill Battle to a Rapprochement With Syria

AnalysisHilal Khashan -
Since the 1950s, Turkey has expressed interest in the domestic affairs of Syria more than any other Arab country, driven by a long shared...
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US Strategy in Europe

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AnalysisGeorge Friedman -
One of the most important outcomes of the U.S. presidential race may be how it affects the United States' relationship with Europe. Donald Trump...
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Explaining China’s Unusual Maritime Activity

AnalysisKamran Bokhari -
China recently made several unusual military moves in the broader Pacific rim. From July 10 to July 15, the Shandong carrier strike group of...
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Sudan’s Forever War

AnalysisRonan Wordsworth -
As Sudan’s civil war enters its 15th month, peace seems as distant as ever. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces...
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Beijing’s Nervous Resolve Amid Third Plenum

AnalysisVictoria Herczegh -
China’s leadership is holding its third plenary session in Beijing this week, one of the most important political meetings of the year. It’s organized...
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Explaining the China-NATO Spat

AnalysisAntonia Colibasanu -
NATO recently issued a statement directly accusing China for the first time of supplying weapons to Russia. The alliance urged China to withdraw “all...
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Searching for a Cause

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AnalysisGeorge Friedman -
The instability in the United States predicted by our model continued this weekend with the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump. It should...
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US, Panama Mind the Darien Gap

AmericasAllison Fedirka -
The Darien Gap – once considered little more than a narrow, impenetrable jungle along Colombia’s border with Panama – has slowly become one of...
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Why Iran’s Establishment Let a Reformist Become President

AnalysisKamran Bokhari -
For the first time in nearly a generation, Iran has elected a reformist who is not a cleric as president. But Masoud Pezeshkian’s victory...
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What We're Reading

What We’re Reading: Trade and the Ancient World

What We're ReadingEkaterina Zolotova -
The Roman Empire and the Silk Routes: The Ancient World Economy and the Empires of Parthia, Central Asia and Han China By Raoul McLaughlin “The Roman...
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What We’re Reading: All About Europe

What We're ReadingFrancesco Casarotto, Valentina Jovanovski -
Europe's Future: Decoupling and Reforming By Sergio Fabbrini Sergio Fabbrini is easily one of the most important political scientists studying EU governance. His essays are required...
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What We’re Reading: Silence and Sleep

What We're ReadingCole Altom, Allison Fedirka -
The Silence By Don DeLillo Last week, a bunch of us Texans prepared for the worst as a winter storm pelted our homes with freezing rain...
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What We’re Reading: Robots and Russian Heroes

What We're ReadingRyan Bridges, Ekaterina Zolotova -
Burn-In: A Novel of the Real Robotic Revolution By August Cole and P.W. Singer The plot of “Burn-In” is … fine. Written by the same duo...
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US Strategy in Europe

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George Friedman -
One of the most important outcomes of the U.S. presidential race may be how it affects the United States' relationship with Europe. Donald Trump...
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George Friedman’s new book:
The Storm Before the Calm

The Storm before the Calm“Who will win the acrimonious 2020 presidential election? Shockingly, it won’t actually matter that much, argues renowned geopolitical forecaster George Friedman. America, he contends, is governed less by leaders and legislation and more by cyclical forces that work deep within the nation’s unique structure.”
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Daily Memo

What's geopolitically important today.

Daily Memo: Russian Interest Rates, More Money for Ukraine

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Rate hike. Russia’s central bank on Friday raised the key lending rate by 200 basis points to 18 percent. The bank explained that inflation...
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Media / Interviews

RealClearWorld: Ukraine and the Long War

Geopolitical Futures -
Long wars result from consistent and fundamental errors: underestimating the will and ability of an enemy to resist, overestimating one’s own capabilities, going to war for incorrect or insufficient reasons, or underestimating the degree to which a powerful third party might intervene and shift the balance of power. - George Friedman Full story
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US Strategy in Europe

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AnalysisGeorge Friedman -
One of the most important outcomes of the U.S. presidential race may be how it affects the United States' relationship with Europe. Donald Trump...
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The Stakes in Venezuela and Guyana’s Dispute

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AmericasGeopolitical Futures -
(click to enlarge) Guyana and Venezuela are quarreling over an old land settlement, but just because the dispute has stayed peaceful for so long and...
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Daily Memo: EU Partners With Serbia on Lithium

AnalysisGeopolitical Futures -
Committed to Europe. Serbia on Friday signed a memorandum of understanding with the European Union on development of sustainable raw materials, batteries and electric...
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Explaining China’s Unusual Maritime Activity

AnalysisKamran Bokhari -
China recently made several unusual military moves in the broader Pacific rim. From July 10 to July 15, the Shandong carrier strike group of...
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The Geopolitics of Donald Trump

“There are those who regard Donald Trump as too stupid to make decisions. There are others who regard him as a brilliant if instinctive crafter of policy. What we know of him is this. "

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