Last week, two influential German economic institutes – the Ifo institute and the German Institute for Economic Research, or DIW – published their midyear economic forecasts. They were released after the German central bank, the Bundesbank, published its own forecast, saying that the German economy’s “solid upswing” will continue. Ifo and DIW found similar results, asserting that the German economy will continue its “steady growth.” Overall, there were few differences between the two reports. DIW is more cautious when dealing with export growth, noting it is still “uncertain” the global economy’s recovery will continue. Both reports underlined that, unlike other periods of recent German history, the first-quarter economic results were based on domestic performance more than they were influenced by export growth.
Our 2017 forecast says German exports will fall in 2017, weakening Berlin’s trade position and, ultimately, slowing economic growth. The l