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Daily Memo: Arrest and Reconciliation

Beijing is mopping up in Hong Kong. At least 53 pro-democracy politicians and activists were detained Wednesday morning in the largest mass arrests since China imposed its sweeping national security law on the special administrative region last summer. Most of the charges relate to an unofficial opposition primary held in August, before Legislative Council elections […]

The World in 2021

Introduction Our 2020 global forecast began as follows: Economic dysfunction will remain the main driver of the international system in 2020. Economic stress does not simply...

Brief: Redrawing Georgia

Background: Russia needs the Caucasus to be stable and under its influence to serve as a buffer between it and powerful states like Iran...

Daily Memo: Iran’s Uranium

Qatar at the GCC. Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani will lead a delegation to the Gulf Cooperation Council Summit, which kicks off...

Britain Returns to Its Past

As of Jan. 1, Britain has completed the process of leaving the European Union. The EU has assured all that dire consequences will haunt...

Brief: Ukraine and Russia’s War of Words

Background: Ukraine and Russia are still at odds over Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014. (A popular referendum later upheld the annexation.)...

Daily Memo: Assassination Anniversary

Tensions around Iran. The upcoming anniversary of the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s Quds Force, is creating tensions throughout the Middle...

The State of Play in North Korea

In a White House meeting just weeks before Donald Trump’s inauguration, then-President Barack Obama warned the president-elect that the North Korean nuclear threat would...

Daily Memo: New Tariffs in Europe, Combat Readiness in the Middle East

TAP supplies. Azerbaijan has begun to supply natural gas to southern Europe via the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline. Though the pipeline will eventually transport 10 billion...

Life After Brexit

On Dec. 21, France closed its border to the United Kingdom after reports of a new, more infectious coronavirus strain spreading in England. Already...

Daily Memo: Beijing and Brussels Talk Investment Deal, Pyongyang Prepares for 2021

Making a deal. China and the EU appear to be inching ever closer to inking a landmark investment deal following seven years of negotiations....

Forecast Tracker: 2020 Year-End Review

(click to enlarge) Scale: Hit, Partial Hit, Inconclusive, Partial Miss, Miss Global Economic dysfunction will be the main driver of the international system in 2020. Economic stress...
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