Forecast Tracker: 2020 Year-End Review

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(click to enlarge) Scale: Hit, Partial Hit, Inconclusive, Partial Miss, Miss Global Economic dysfunction will be the main driver of the international system in 2020. Economic stress does not simply flow from whether the economy grows or declines by a percent; it arises from shifts in the pattern of economic behavior. This in turn affects social realities and leads to political instability. Growth may continue, but a dramatic slowdown in growth can have significant consequences. We forecast a slowing global economy. Hit Global economic activity, even in some of the world’s largest countries, plummeted this year and only modestly recovered. The coronavirus pandemic suspended economic activity in developing and industrialized countries alike. New economic behaviors dictated by various quarantine measures created new economic and social behavior, distorting labor pools and financial systems in the process. Many small and medium-sized businesses closed their doors as larger companies laid off workers, cut investment and reduced future activity. Economic underperformance coupled with restrictive social measures sparked protests mainly in Europe and the United States. The most important dimension of the slowdown will be the increase in social instability, which was triggered by the 2008 financial crisis and ameliorated in recent years but will […]

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